From bad to worse

The Middle East strategic landscape is rapidly changing. The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, brewing hostilities between Iran and Israel over Syria, and elections in Iraq and Lebanon continue to jolt regional stability. On May 23, 2018, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW), hosted a panel titled “Shake-Up in the Middle East: How Will Regional Powers Respond” to discuss current developments and their implications. The panel included:

1. Gregory Gause, Head of International Affairs Department, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University
2. Feisal Istrabadi, Founding Director, Center for the Study of the Middle East, Indiana University
3. Gönül Tol, Founding Director, Center for Turkish Studies, Middle East Institute
4. Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW (Moderator)

Gause suggested that after one year, two Secretaries of State, and three national security advisors, Washington seems to finally have a strategy for the region, though some may label it a wish-list. Secretary Pompeo’s list includes demands that ranged from disarming and demobilizing Shia militias, to Iran’s withdrawal throughout the entirety of Syria.

Increased pressure on Iran will require increased cooperation with the Gulf Allies. The United States will want Saudi Arabia to send troops to Syria or perhaps to deflate oil prices so as to further squeeze Iran economically. Such demands will likely not be met with cooperation. The Saudis have spent the last two years trying to push oil prices up for internal reasons. The idea that the Saudis will do the opposite to enhance a US-led effort to pressure Iran is far-fetched if not entirely unreasonable.

Istrabadi sketched the geostrategic landscape of Iraq, which shows signs that it is emerging from the shadows and reasserting itself in a positive way. The current Prime Minister has managed to recalibrate the country’s relations with its neighbors by cooling tensions with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Gulf States; a goal that his predecessor failed to achieve. Iraq’s moment may however prove transient as the US is ratcheting up tensions in the region.

The Gulf States’ northern neighbor, Turkey, has not remained unaffected by geopolitical tremors in the MENA region. Tol, stressed that Turkey’s foreign policy fulcrum has become the Kurdish issue. Turkish-US relations have previously been tested; first in 1964 with Cyprus and the famous Johnson letter, then in 1974 when the US congress imposed sanctions and an arms embargo, and third in 2001 when Turkey decided not to allow US troops into its military bases. But ties remained unbroken due to the ruling center right parties and the military’s commitment to a pro-american Turkish foreign policy.

Today, Turkey-US relations are vastly different. The military, opposition, and the government are all on the same anti-American page. Problems today between the two countries are no longer contextual but structural. Democratic backsliding remains a concern, especially for the EU, while Turkish-Russian bilateral relations have warmed.

Bottom line: Saudi Arabia and Turkey are drifting away from the US, while Iraq will find it hard to fill the gap. Things are going from bad to worse for the Americans.