Best summit EVER!
Hard to write anything you haven’t already read about the Mueller indictment of 12 Russian officials for cyberattacks on the United States. This is the second shoe to drop. The first consisted of indictments for the social media campaign intended to influence the election in favor of Donald Trump.
The President is now golfing to get ready to meet with “not my enemy” Vladimir Putin in Helsinki tomorrow. Trump intends to start the summit one-on-one, with only interpreters. That way he can say whatever he wants about what transpired, as the interpreters won’t leak. While he has said he would ask about interference in the US election, Trump has also repeated Putin’s earlier denials, indicating he believes them. I don’t know anyone else in Washington who does.
Trump is fresh from London meetings during which he offended the Queen, supported the Prime Minister’s leading rival, and claimed immigration was ruining both Europe and the US. That followed on a NATO summit at which he trashed America’s allies, then (falsely) pretended that they had yielded to his will on military spending. Today he even responded to a question about America’s worst enemy by saying the EU is a foe. This is Putin’s wet dream: the United States split from Europe and in particular from its militarily strongest ally.
Where and when does this nightmare end? Not in Helsinki, where Trump will likely serve up Syria on a silver platter, asking only that Moscow promise to get he Iranians out, or at least off the Israeli border. Putin will promise, the Americans will bail, but neither Russia nor Iran will feel any pressure to fulfill any commitment Putin has made. Their attacks on the agreed de-escalation zones in Syria, and Trump’s abandonment of the rebel forces in the south, tells you all you need to know about how Moscow, Damascus, and Washington are approaching Syria these days. Moscow and Damascus are trying to win. Washington doesn’t care about losing. Once the Americans are gone from Syria, Iran and Russia will be free to do as they like.
The only good news is that Trump might be boxed in on Ukraine. While he has personally expressed the view that Crimea should belong to Russia because people there speak Russian, the Administration and Congress seem solidly opposed to any compromise on Ukraine before withdrawal of Russian forces. Trump will have a hard time promising Putin relief from Ukraine-related sanctions if the Congress stands its ground. That said, any indication of indifference towards the Russian annexation of Crimea will be a big win for Putin, even if the sanctions remain in place for now.
Of course Trump will declare the Helsinki summit a great success, one much more successful than any previous meeting with an American president. People will be saying it was the best summit EVER!
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