Ugh

The referendum on Macedonia’s agreement with Greece, which would enable it to join NATO next year and the EU when it qualifies, passed with more than 90% voting yes but failed to reach the 50% threshold of registered voters voting. That was always going to be difficult, not least because the voter rolls still contain names that likely shouldn’t be there. But still: the boycott organized by those opposing the referendum worked among the Macedonian population (but not among the one-quarter or so of the population that is Albanian).

From the point of view of those of us who wanted to see the referendum pass, this is regrettable. The referendum was advisory, but in a democratic society–and Macedonia is on the route to becoming one–it is hard to ignore the will of the people. The parliamentary majority can still try to pass the necessary constitutional amendments and other required legislation, but it won’t be easy.

So what next?

Prime Minister Zaev is saying he will try to implement the agreement, seeking the dozen or so votes he needs to reach a two-thirds majority from the opposition. If that fails, he says he will call early elections. That’s a risky strategy under the circumstances, but Zaev has proven himself a risk-taker.

I can’t help but wonder if the Greek and Macedonian governments could put their heads together to come up with a mini-package. One possibility would be a simple agreement to allow “North Macedonia” to enter NATO, along with confidence-building measures to implement at least some of the provisions of the Prespa agreement, including its provisions for enhanced bilateral cooperation. Athens will fear giving away carrots in advance of a full agreement, but that is not really a problem in the long term: it will still have a veto over EU membership.

To those who are celebrating the defeat of the referendum, claiming that it would have wiped out their identity and language, I say nonsense: in a non-violent context, only insecurity about who you are and what your language is can do that. Macedonia is fortunate that its Albanians are secure about their identity and language. Otherwise I could anticipate trouble from that quarter.

But Macedonia’s Albanians want NATO membership, sooner rather than later. They regard it as a guarantee of the country’s democratic ambitions and their own safety and security. I wonder how long they will continue their patience, especially if Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo President Thaci reach an agreement on border changes. At least some Albanians in Macedonia might think that is an opportunity to create Greater Kosovo, if not Greater Albania.

I am completely unsympathetic to those irredentist ambitions. The Americans and Europeans have had a clear agreement with the Albanians in the Balkans: Kosovo got independence, Albania got NATO membership, and Macedonia can have it as well, but if and only if borders are not moved, in particular to accommodate ethnic differences. In the wake of the referendum, Washington needs to wake up and re-establish the strict prohibition on border changes, which is a vital foundation for peace in the Balkans.