Only time will tell

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s July 1 presidential election with 53% of the votes. In addition, MORENA, AMLO’s political party,  joined a coalition with other minority parties to consolidate a majority of seats in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies.

Keen on understanding Mexico’s current political situation, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted an event on AMLO and the Fourth Transformation: One Year After Historic Election Victory on July 8. The panel was composed of Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas Professors Blanca Heredia and Mariá Amparo Casar, Global Fellow and Director of Buendia & Laredo Jorge Buendia, as well as Albright Stonebridge Group Senior Vice President Antonio Ortiz-Mena. The panel was moderated by Deputy Director of the Mexico Institute, Christopher  Wilson.

Wilson underlined that AMLO promised to fight corruption, portraying himself as someone who could be trusted also to maintain fiscal responsibility. The question is whether his wave of support will continue or crash? AMLO had one-third of voter support in 2006 and 2012, but he currently has an approval rating between 60 to 70 percent—impressive when compared with former President Peña Nieto. Expectations are high.

For example, 41 percent believe the current economic situation is worse as compared to 14 percent who think it has improved. However, 34 percent believe that it will improve compared to 24 percent who think otherwise. Buendia expects that AMLO’s approval rating will gradually decline as the year comes to an end since the “inaugural honeymoon” will end.

Blanca indicated that language is key for AMLO. He treats corruption as a moral rather than a legal problem. In addition, he focuses on transformation but not goals: destruction of the old system rather than construction of a new one. The new leadership has been described as a populist regime in the making—one that is unique because it is situated on the left side of the political spectrum. It is all about breaking apart a system that excludes parts of society. Blanca concluded that there is an opportunity to move away from the deformed development that has hindered Mexico in the past.

Though AMLO has indicated that he has already met 78 out of the 100 promises he made, Amparo Casar suggests AMLO administration policies aimed at security, inequality, and corruption are not as effective as they could be. AMLO’s insistence that “nothing and no one is above the law” and “if you have to choose between justice and the law, do not hesitate, choose justice” can be problematic and dangerous in a country like Mexico.

Ortiz-Mena concluded with an economic perspective—looking at the possibility of increased stability and growth in Mexico. While the growth rate has remained around that seen under Peña Nieto—2.3 percent—Ortiz-Mena believes that Mexico can reach a growth rate of 4 percent. He highlighted the risks that could result from AMLO’s aversion towards increasing taxes and national debt since in the case of a drop in GDP, Mexico would not have a strong safety net to rebound quickly. This is interesting since while the new administration is left-leaning it is economically conservative.

The panel showed wide variance on Mexico’s prospects. It is still not clear whether there will be major changes, or whether the country will regress to familiar patterns. A serious transformation is still uncertain. Only time will tell.