With regret: adieu, Syria

Most of the time I try to write with passion and conviction. This piece for MEI suggesting if not quite advocating a negotiate US withdrawal from Syria I wrote with sadness and regret. I thought for a long time that we should stay and try to get Syria right. Certainly courageous Syrians advocating for reform deserved better than they got, and Bashar al Assad merits accountability for the slaughter and displacement of a good part of his country’s population. But I am now convinced Syria is too far gone and would require far more resources than are available.

There is unquestionably a risk, maybe a certainty, of ISIS resurgence. Just yesterday the Department of Defense Inspector General chronicled it. I could well see maintaining some counterterrorism forces on bases in northeastern Syria. But that would be quite different from those who advocate that we continue to partner indefinitely with Syrian Democratic Forces to control territory. ISIS learned how difficult that is. We shouldn’t be foolhardy.

A negotiated withdrawal is what is called for, one that seeks to encourage those who remain (Turkey and Russia in particular) to counter ISIS and Iran. Assad would remain in power for the time being, but with little hope of reconstructing most of what he controls. Israel would keep the Iranians and their proxies off its border, with Russian nulla osta. It’s not a pretty picture, especially for the Kurds, who ideally would cut a deal with the Turks but who more likely will be forced by Turkish intransigence to cut a deal with Assad.

There are limits to power. We have unfortunately found them in Syria. The American people won’t tolerate serious losses there. Best to retrench and preserve our forces and treasure for another day.