Day: October 20, 2019

Walking back

President Trump and his minions are walking back a lot of things:

  • No, the Trump Doral resort will not host the G7;
  • No, Trump did not greenlight the Turkish invasion of Syria and attack on the Syrian Kurds;
  • No, the President’s chief of staff did not confirm that the President wanted an investigation into Joe Biden and his son in exchange for Congressionally mandated military aid to Ukraine.

None of these corrections comes even close to erasing the original mistakes. If it is wrong for Trump to host the G7 at one of his resorts, it is also wrong for foreign governments and US agencies to be padding his income at the Trump hotel in DC and a resort in Scotland. He definitely did yank the US troops who were preventing a Turkish invasion of Syria, without apparently thinking about the consequences, which are catastrophic for both the Kurds and Arabs who did the bulk of the fighting against the Islamic State in Syria. Chief of staff Mulvaney’s denials don’t pass the laugh test, or Chris Wallace’s grilling.

Trump is reaching his limits. Public opinion among Democrats and independents is turning against him on the impeachment inquiry. John Kasich may not be a typical Republican today, but he is an intelligent one calling for impeachment. At least a few Senators may not be far behind. The damage to America’s standing in the world, and to their hopes for re-election, is becoming all too evident. Still, most rank and file Republicans are backing Trump. If that starts to change, the Senate dam will break.

Ron Chernow, who knows more American history than anyone else alive, has the most interesting and compelling take on impeachment today: it was designed, he says, precisely for someone like Trump. I confess to me it seems almost too good for someone of his ilk, but Chernow helpfully notes that prosecution can come once he is out of office. I do hope to live long enough to see that happen.

Meanwhile, American interests worldwide are suffering mightily. Everyone who depends on the US has to see the instant betrayal of the Kurds as a warning. No American friend or ally should be neglecting to hedge by seeking support elsewhere. America’s adversaries are enjoying the spectacle, which has handed Russia and Iran a leg up in Syria and enabled both of them to gain invaluable intelligence on US military operations both from the abandoned bases and from erstwhile US allies.

Trump’s move has also signaled, once again, that he is a pushover who yields easily to adversaries. Turkish President Erdogan rolled him, the Iranians have apparently gotten away with a serious attack on Saudi oil production facilities, Russia is enjoying impunity for its invasion of Ukraine, and the North Koreans have given Trump an ultimatum if he wants them to make even small moves to limit their nuclear program. Make America Great Again is not only isolating the United States but diminishing it. Even at the end of the Vietnam war, which was unquestionably a low point for US influence in the world, American influence was greater than it is today.

The spectacle of the United States walking backwards is demoralizing, not only to Americans but also to much of the rest of the world. Let’s hope we get Trump out of office within the next year or so. If he gets re-elected, the damage will be irreversible.

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Stevenson’s army, October 18 and 20

October 20: Next fights

SecDef Esper says US troops in northern Syria will move to Iraq.
Politico had an earlier report about military thinking about ISIS now.
RollCall says Congress is still likely to vote on Turkey sanctions.

I can’t locate a new CRS report on how the Senate handles impeachment, so I’ll give you the rules and precedents from the longtime Senate parliamentarian, Floyd Riddick.
FP has a bunch of articles on how to cope with Trump’s foreign policies.

October 18: Words matter

Look at the text of the US-Turkish agreement.  The word “cease-fire” isn’t there, only a 120 hour “pause” to allow the withdrawal of Kurdish forces from the undefined “safe zone.”  And the US agreed that it agreed the safe zone had to include “the re-collection of YPG heavy weapons and the disablement of their fortifications and all other fighting positions.”WSJ points out some of the other ambiguities in the agreement. NYT calls it a “cave-in” to Turkey. WaPo says DOD is rushing to develop its plans. Peter Beinart calls Democrats critical of the Syria pullout hypocrites because of their views on Afghanistan.
BTW, McConnell says the Senate will start taking up appropriations bills.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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