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Impeachment is certain, but when?

The case against President Trump is solid: obstruction of justice documented by Special Counsel Mueller, abuse of power for personal benefit by extorting judicial cooperation from Ukraine, inviting and accepting foreign campaign assistance even in public, and who knows how many financial malfeasances involving laundering money for Russian oligarchs and Saudi princes. The Democratic majority in the House will no doubt vote solidly to impeach, likely joined by a scattering of Republicans. There is no way that having opened an impeachment inquiry the Democrats can now back off, allowing Trump to run in 2020 claiming that even his opposition knows he did nothing wrong.

The only question is when. The Democrats are insisting on moving quickly, which could mean impeachment before the end of this year. I think that would be a mistake. Impeachment would then be a distant memory a year from now, negated at least in part by a quick acquittal in the Senate. The next election is going to be a referendum on Trump, no matter what else appears to be at stake. Better for the Democrats to move with all deliberate speed, piling up the evidence and making it public over the next 10 or 11 months. They could then impeach Trump without leaving enough time for a trial in the Senate, demonstrating that they are prepared to live with the verdict of the American people.

That strikes me as a much better move. Convincing the 20 Senate Republicans needed for a 2/3 majority to abandon Trump is a tall order. The Republican party is disciplined and wholly under the President’s control. But more than half the country already believes he should be impeached, and almost as many people believe he should be removed from office. Why not rely on the good judgment of the citizens, especially after another year of unveiling the many high crimes and misdemeanors Trump is guilty of?

I suppose the argument against this approach is that citizens want their representatives to deliver legislation and services, not only focus on impeaching Trump. But it should be easier to continue legislating, overseeing, and appropriating if impeachment is not on a fast track. In fact, a fast track may not be feasible, as Administration resistance to subpoenas will need to be challenged in court. It is reasonable to think that a thorough impeachment investigation will take at least another 8-10 months. Why not make a virtue of necessity?

Speaker Pelosi is the savviest politician in Washington these days. She’ll make the call on when to impeach, and for what offenses. So far, she is believed to want things to move expeditiously. That’s smart, since otherwise it could all bog down. But I won’t be surprised if she is quietly contemplating a process that lasts another year, with ample subpoenas, public hearings, and publication of more documents and text messages. It is clear to me that Trump runs several criminal enterprises. But that is still not clear to more than 40% of the population. If even a quarter of those can be convinced, defeat for Trump on November 3 next year is certain.

If Trump wins a second term, it will become impossible to impeach him again. Impeachment is an all or nothing proposition. I wouldn’t want the outcome to depend on the Senate more than on American citizens who vote.