peacefare.net

Iraq explodes

Escalating Protests

The current protests in Iraq have been the bloodiest since 2003, with over 300 people killed and thousands injured. The October protesters started off demanding services, but quickly escalated to broader grievances against the Prime Minister, his cabinet, and the Iraqi democratic system as a whole. These protests should not be a surprise to the Iraqi government nor the international community. The government has been eroding for 16 years. Layers of grievances have led to the current protests.

President Barham Salih has said Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi will resign once the political parties pick a replacement, but it’s highly unlikely this would quell protests. The demonstrations are not backed by, nor do they back, any political party. There is no leadership for the government to negotiate with. Ideas, demands, and slogans are being churned out. The basic demand is for an upheaval of the political system.   

Underlying Issues to Broader Instability

Two years after the fall of ISIS, Iraq is still unstable. The government lacks the ability to meet the basic needs of its citizens. An estimated $160-$275 billion is needed to rebuild, but a mix of mismanaged resources and corrupt politicians has left the country with vital infrastructure still destroyed, high levels of unemployment, and a lack of services, especially in health and education. Despite having the world’s fourth largest oil reserves, Iraq’s cities face frequent power cuts, making life unbearable for many. The only option separate from the national power grid is to purchase electricity from privately owned generators, but that is unaffordable for most Iraqis.

There are still roughly 1.67 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in post-ISIS Iraq. Most of those who could voluntarily move back to their place of origin have likely already done so, yet authorities are closing and consolidating IDP camps, causing conditions in the remaining ones to deteriorate.

Civil documentation is a major barrier to IDPs re-integrating into communities as well as returning home to their places of origin. Strict Iraqi laws make life difficult for an estimated 80,000 families, who lack legal documentation. Without proper paperwork, these Iraqis lose access to available public goods and freedom of movement. Although international aid is provided to IDPs, it is not nearly enough for them and other Iraqis in dire need of basic commodities. Corrupt politicians take the money for themselves. The mishandling of IDPs adds to the perception that the Iraqi government is corrupt and ineffective.

The Islamic State remains a serious threat for both Iraq and Syria. ISIS fighters have moved into the valley of a remote mountainous region in northern Iraq that is not patrolled by either the Kurdish peshmerga or the Iraqi army. This allows them free movement, mainly at night, and the ability to go to local cities, farms, and villages to shake down the population and extract resources. Currently, there are only a few hundred ISIS militants in the area at most, but it could be the beginning of a new territorial caliphate if they are able to consolidate power and create a base for nearby sleeper cells to flock to.    

What’s Next?

The Prime Minister has lost the support of Iraqi students, unions, and even the army. It is difficult to predict what will happen in coming weeks, but the protests have continuously increased in size and intensity, a trend that will likely endure. The government has lost the confidence of the Iraqi people. Replacing current politicians will not address the grievances protestors have. A new mandate is needed to move forward and reestablish Iraq.

Iraq exploding with a wide range of problems that could push the government over the edge at any moment. A military coup by either the Iraqi army or the Iranian backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is a possibility, but how will the people respond to rule by either as both have used unnecessary force against the protesters? Civil conflict would be devastating for Iraq and could be the perfect opportunity for ISIS to reestablish its caliphate.

The protests are not going to just disappear. The Iraqi people will continue to persist despite the violent reactions from security forces. There seem to be no “good” options for Iraq now and in the immediate future.