Honi soit qui mal y pense

President Trump tweeted this morning:

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump · 2hShifty Adam Schiff is a CORRUPT POLITICIAN, and probably a very sick man. He has not paid the price, yet, for what he has done to our Country!

This tweet conveys several messages:

1. As the lead House Manager in the impeachment trial, Adam Schiff is doing a great job and making the accused President very nervous.
2. Trump is signaling to his followers that Schiff is a legitimate target not only for criticism but also for violence.
3. The President himself is a very sick man who has done a lot of damage to the United States–he consistently accuses opponents of doing what he is doing.

Trump has reason to be nervous. A Fox News poll today confirmed a previous CNN result that puts the percentage of Americans favoring his removal from office at 50% or higher. The tide is beginning to turn.

The question is how fast and far it will go. The Senate Republicans are trying to race through the trial without calling witnesses, knowing that any testimony or even documentary evidence would weigh against the President. Senate Majority Leader McConnell wants to complete the process well before the February 4 State of the Union address. The Democrats would prefer to hold the cloud over the President until well after that, though they too have an interest in finishing the trial so that some of their number can campaign in the primaries.

The two-thirds majority required to convict Trump still seems far out of reach. But he would be severely weakened if enough Republicans were to join the Democratic minority to get 50% to vote for removal from office. So far, there is no sign that even one Republican will break ranks, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect them to signal in advance their willingness to buck the President. Once one moves in that direction, a few others may well join.

This week’s effort to distract attention from the impeachment trial will be announcement of the President’s “peace plan” for Israel and the Palestinians. It has no chance of success at all. The Palestinians long ago decided not to talk with the Administration’s envoys, who are intent on giving a green light to annexation of large portions of the West Bank. The Palestinians can expect nothing more than a few economic sweeteners, but no state of their own or equal rights within Israel. The Trump plan is a dead letter, but it serves his domestic political interests to appear for a few days a peacemaker. If nothing else, he can declare to his roaring supporters that he deserves the Nobel Prize.

Meanwhile the Democrats are getting ready for the Iowa caucuses February 3 and the New Hampshire primary February 11. Bernie Sanders is leading in polls, but it still looks as if there will be three or four viable candidacies after New Hampshire. Nevada and South Carolina follow, but it will likely be Super Tuesday March 3, when more than 15 primaries are held, before the situation really clarifies. Trump will no doubt have choice words for whoever is emerging as a potential challenger. Honi soit qui mal y pense