Iranian parliamentary “elections”

February 21 marked the 11^th Iranian parliamentary election. The Wilson Center hosted an event After Parliamentary Elections: Iran’s Political Future on February 26 with a panel of scholars to interpret the aftermath . Robin Wright, a USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow served as the moderator, with panel participation from Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, Ariane Tabatabai, Visiting Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and Kenneth Katzman, Specialist on Middle East Affairs at the Congressional Research Service.

Wright stated the facts that led it to be considered the “most rigged Iranian election in history”:

• 90 sitting members of parliament were disqualified for reelection,
• only 19 reformists won seats (down from 121 in the 2016 elections),
• conservatives and hardliners won 221 of the 290 seats, comprising 76% of parliament, compared to 29% in 2016.
• voter turnout was poor due to dissatisfaction with the government about the downing of the Ukrainian plane and the public health threat of coronavirus.

Significance of this Parliament

Vaez cautioned against interpreting these election results as unprecedented. In 2004, the Guardian Council used similar tactics to disqualify 80 members of the parliament and paved the road to Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005. Tabatabai noted that the hardline win comes at a time of lower voter turnout, illustrating the widening gap between the population and the regime.

Vaez speculates that the push for a government-selected parliament is due to the Supreme Leader’s desire to conduct structural reforms. It would be more challenging to introduce constitutional reforms with a parliament ideologically opposed.

Katzman emphasized that the regime is by no means on its back feet. Is continuing its aggressive, confident stance. He pointed to the steps officials took to fix the election as an example of their resounding confidence. He pointed to Lebanon and Iraq as examples where political protests have resulted in resignations and government concessions. This has not occurred in Iran despite popular dissatisfaction with the leadership.  

Militarization of Politics

Tabatabai and Vaez both noted that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) made monumental gains in this election. The next speaker of the parliament could be a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Tabatabai thinks the Guards aim centralize and reassert power. Katzman noted the increased ability for the IRGC to influence and project power in the region with more parliamentary support.

Vaez noted that Parliament, Majles, does not play a monumental role in foreign policy , but it can impeach members of the cabinet and withhold approval, leading to a lame duck presidency.

Presidential Elections : Impact of US Election on Iran

Vaez suggests that the election of a hardline president in 2021 depends mainly on two factors,

1. The new elected Parliament’s performance and
2. the 2020 elections in the United States.

If there is a US president whom the Iranian government believes it can negotiate with, Vaez doubts that Iran will elect someone like Ahmadinejad. The panelists emphasized the close knit nature of these two elections and the monumental global impacts they will have.