Comeuppance

President Trump yesterday called the corona virus Covid-19 a Democratic hoax and bragged about a false number of (relatively few) cases that have occurred in the US. He claimed it was 16 when the actual number was four times that. And 24 hours later it is significantly higher. The cases are no longer linked to international travel but rather are being infected within American communities. This and the US government’s failure to provide adequate numbers of test kits quickly to state and local health officials make it likely we are nowhere near the peak.

No one would want thousands or even millions of Americans to be infected, but if it happens Donald Trump is in big political trouble. His minimizing of the problem combined with an inadequate response are going to be hard to hide, even from his most fervent supporters. He and his son Donald are trying to sell the notion that Democrats want the infections to spread to weaken his hold on power. Nothing could be further from the truth, and the line isn’t going to protect a culpable president.

Covid-19 will also highlight the health care issue in the presidential campaign. President Trump has interfered with and weakened Obamacare, which had decreased the number of uninsured Americans. Despite frequent promises to do so, the Republicans have proposed no serious alternative. Instead, they have gone to court trying to eliminate Obamacare entirely, including its popular provision of insurance for pre-existing conditions. You don’t have to be a Democrat to think increasing the number of uninsured just before an epidemic hits was a bad political move.

The economic impact is even more politically potent than the health impact. The stock market Trump was fond of boasting about has lost more than 10% in a week. The sharp sell-off is due to expectations of slower growth and uncertainty about how bad it could get. The “correction” has its own implications: it reduces the availability of capital and decreases demand, at least among those who own stock or have retirement plans invested in the market. There is now a pretty good chance for a sharp slowdown, if not a negative growth quarter or more.

The Trump Administration has gotten away with a lot of lying. The President himself has told many thousands of whoppers in his three years in office. But a corona virus epidemic is going to be hard to hide or to blame on his political opponents. Vice President Pence, put in charge of the government response this week, may be tapped as the fall guy. But the truth is Trump limited the initial response to clamping down on non-Americans entering the US, which was not the problem. If the corona virus turns out to be the President’s comeuppance, it will be richly deserved.