A bad deal 2

I’ve already said I think the rumored deal between Belgrade and Pristina is a bad one. Some discussion of why is in order. I hasten to warn however that I have not seen the text and will have to rely on yesterday’s post from Shaun Byrnes for what it contains. I’m tired of waiting for something more definitive. If you want me to rely on the actual text of the proposed agreement, please send it to me. Absent that, here are a few points:

1. Land/people swap: Admittedly I don’t know the geography, but any movement of boundaries or borders on an ethnic basis will open Pandora’s box. Milorad Dodik has made this perfectly clear in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where he intends to pursue partition if there is a swap between Kosovo and Serbia. He is being quiet about that for the moment to please Belgrade, but that is a purely tactical move. He is serious about pursuing independence for Republika Srpska if a swap happens anywhere in the Balkans. Principles matter.
2. Non-recognition by Belgrade: The agreement reportedly does not include Serbia’s recognition of a sovereign and independent Kosovo, but merely a promise by Serbia no longer to stand in the way of UN membership. Accepting this would be incredibly stupid for Pristina. It is Russia, not Serbia, that ultimately blocks UN membership and will continue to do so until there is an agreement with the US to permit it. Kosovo must have not only Serbian recognition but also exchange of diplomatic representatives at the ambassadorial level and agreement to demarcate the border. Until all that happens, no Kosovo citizen should be prepared to accept a deal, much less a president responsible for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of his country.
3. An Association of Serb Municipalities with undefined responsibilities. The association idea was a bad one when it was introduced in the 2013 Brussels-negotiated “political” agreement. Now that it is clear Serbia would use such an association to try to govern the Serb-majority municipalities from Belgrade and to block effective sovereignty from being exercised in Pristina, it is much worse. The Kosovo Constitutional Court has issued a decision that prescribes in detail what kind of association would be consistent with the constitution. Pristina should concede nothing more, and nothing indefinite.

As a prelude to this repulsive agreement, Washington is openly pressuring Prime Minister Kurti to unilaterally abolish the tariffs his predecessor imposed on Serbian (and Bosnian) goods. Influenced by Serbian-hired lobbyists, the Trump Administration has even threatened to withdraw both its peacekeepers and its assistance package from Kosovo. President Thaci is trying to cause Kurti’s government, which depends on support from people who oppose the tariffs, to fall. Kurti is trying to compromise by suspending some of the tariffs this weekend, but this hasn’t satisfied either Washington or his President. Vucic really doesn’t care: the tariffs make it easy for him to blame Pristina for stalling the agreement.

There is no good reason to rush to an agreement before the Serbian elections in April, or even soon thereafter. All of Pristina thinks Thaci is rushing to try to forestall an indictment by the Special Tribunal in The Hague, whose prosecutor is a Trump-appointed American. Vucic has made it clear he will not do a deal under pressure before he gets a renewed mandate. Richard Grenell–US Ambassador to Germany, acting but temporary Director of National Intelligence, and Special Envoy for peace negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo–is trying to deliver a diplomatic triumph to help President Trump’s re-election campaign and get himself a better job, even though he is unqualified for all the jobs he already has.

For America’s successful 1990s interventions in the Balkans in favor of liberal democracy to end in this mess would be shameful, but that is precisely what the ethno-nationalist Trump Administration wants. It views Kosovo and Bosnia as Clinton triumphs, which makes them second only to Obama successes in arousing the President’s jealousy and loathing. Shameful is not something he avoids.

There is an American election in less than eight months. Anyone who wants things to come out right in the Balkans should be prepared to await its outcome.