Day: August 19, 2020
What is Grenell trying to do?
I did an interview for Artiana Matoshi of Radio Television Kosova (RTK) Monday:
Q: How do you see the White House’s invitation for the dialogue on September 2? Why was Ambassador Grenell activated during this period?
A: Everything Donald Trump and his minions do until November 3 is about improving his prospects for re-election. He is trailing Joe Biden dramatically and needs international “accomplishments.” He got one last week with the UAE/Israel deal. That was no more than an announcement of intent to negotiate agreements. I suspect they are aiming for something similar between Kosovo and Serbia.
Q: Do you believe that economics, as proclaimed, will be mentioned or will other topics be unfolded or opened?
A: They will try for anything they can get. Trump and Grenell are desperate.
Q: What do you expect from this meeting in general and do you think it will be effective?
A: I expect Kosovo to be pressured mercilessly to accept infringements on its sovereignty, including both territorial concessions and organizational ones like the Association of Serb Municipalities. I also expect flim flam: claims of success that turn out to be fake.
I should have added to RTK: compromises on sovereignty could come in other forms, like sharing of Trepca or international management of Gazivoda, for example. Many countries enter into economic arrangements to share disputed or shared resources. They should be examined on the merits of their contributions to national interests as well as their consistency with the Kosovo constitution. Serbia will want to do likewise. Reciprocity should be the fundamental principle.
I will be surprised if Belgrade agrees to recognize Kosovo and establish diplomatic relations with it. Surprised, but also pleased.
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Stevenson’s army, August 19
– State is denying documents to House, not Senate
– SecState Pompeo cancels briefings for HFAC
– I share the basic political science judgment that there are few truly Independent voters; most lean regularly to one party. But there are changeable voters, though few, as WSJ reports.
– Rare good news from Afghanistan: Taliban stopped attacking US troops.
– Administration drops insistence on China, willing to discuss extending New START with Russia.
– WSJ says Xi is purging domestic security forces.
– Now that reporters have had time to review Senate Intell report, here are some key points from NYT and Vox.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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