Polarization at home, polarization abroad

The Biden Harris campaign has released this on relations with Albania and Kosovo:

The statement speaks for itself, loud and clear. Many friends in Belgrade won’t like it, because they have enjoyed the Trump Administration’s tilt in their direction. Many Albanians in both Kosovo and Albania will be delighted, even though it adds little or nothing to what Biden has already been said on the most salient issue: the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade.

Belgrade had already opted for open support of Donald Trump’s re-election. The leading opposition figure in Pristina, Albin Kurti, had already opted for open support of Joe Biden, though the government there is likely to remain circumspect. Albanians know they have gotten the short end of the stick in this Administration, but they don’t want to offend Donald Trump, for fear of the transactional consequences. That won’t prevent most of them from celebrating if Biden is elected.

The consequences inside the US electorate are marginal at best. The biggest Albanian community I know of is in New York City. It won’t make much difference there, since both the City and the State will vote overwhelmingly for Biden. Serbs may have a bigger impact, as there is a significant number in Ohio, which is a swing (or battleground) state. It has been tilting towards Trump (65% chance of his winning it, according to The Economist). But the bigger Serb populations in big cities like Chicago and Milwaukee are unlikely to have much impact in Illinois and Wisconsin respectively. Illinois is a lock for Biden and Wisconsin is leaning heavily his way.

It is unfortunate that Albanian Americans and Serb Americans are aligning themselves so clearly with Democrats and Republicans, but understandable in current circumstances. Our polarization at home naturally engenders polarization abroad. Long gone from Capitol Hill is Ohio Republican Senator Vojnovic, who managed more or less to straddle the Serb/Albanian divide, and soon to be gone (defeated in his primary) is New York Congressman Engel, who tried but is far more popular among Albanians than among Serbs.

President Trump is still occasionally expressing his disappointment at not getting a Nobel Peace Prize for the mostly useless agreement between Pristina and Belgrade that his minions negotiated in hopes of buttressing his campaign. I suppose he may reprise that silliness in Thursday night’s debate with Biden, when the President wants to focus on foreign policy in order to distract attention from the disastrous resurgence of Covid 19. If he does, Biden will know how to respond. He has forgotten far more about the Balkans than Trump has ever known.