Month: March 2021

Stevenson’s army, March 5

-WSJ has a partial tick-tock on Biden’s first use of force.

WH says Biden is willing to have new AUMF.

Vox reports on internal Afghanistan debate.

David Sanger assesses Biden’s MO. 

Colin Kahl hearing report.

Just Security gets  troop numbers declassified. Even more here.

Lots of numbers and new reports at Cost of War project.

Fed blocked Myanmar fund transfer.

Naval War College prof opposes NSA/Cyber Command split.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Reviving refugee resettlement in the US: ethics, policy, and implementation

Here are the remarks I made at today’s Johns Hopkins webinar on “Reviving Refugee Resettlement: Moral, Policy, and Implementation Issues,” in which colleagues and I presented and discussed our published paper on the subject.

  1. I collected the data on which our assessment of moral, policy and implementation issues was largely based.
  2. It’s one of the few times in my mostly internationally focused career that I’ve exploited my diplomatic skills to hear American views.
  3. The people I interviewed were all familiar with resettlement issues: as government officials, as think tankers following the issues, as NGO or international officials with relevant responsibilities.
  4. The range of political views was wide and included people working in the Trump Administration, but not Steven Miller or others in his inner circle.
  5. They either did not answer multiple requests for interviews or bluntly refused to talk with me.
  6. I did however talk with people inside government as well as outside generally sympathetic with the Administration’s views, especially on immigration.
  7. Ethical issues were not foremost in the minds of most of these people but on questioning all agreed on the moral imperative of helping resettle at least some refugees.
  8. All believed, for example, that the US should resettle Afghans, Iraqis, and others whose lives were in danger due to assistance they had afforded Americans during invasions.
  9. There was no dissent from “the duty to repair” in those circumstances.
  10. There was also general agreement on thinking about refugee resettlement as a human rights and humanitarian issue, albeit one that had to be limited by practical and financial considerations.
  11. But priority to the needy and non-discrimination, in particular based on religion were universally accepted. This was after the Trump Administration had prohibited visas for people from some Muslim countries.
  12. There was less agreement on the broad humanitarian imperative—partly because in its boldest form it rejects practical and financial considerations. Some also thought keeping people close to their original homes was more likely to enable returns, which they regarded as preferable in principle to resettlement and far less costly, enabling more people to be assisted.
  13. Personally, I think that trade-off is a serious issue: resettlement vs. aid in place, because of cost considerations.
  14. There was also less agreement on the contribution refugee resettlement makes to foreign policy and the legitimacy of the state system. Some insisted on this point unhesitatingly. Those closer to the Trump Administration rejected it as an exaggeration, but mainly I think because they were unconcerned with what others term the “rules-based order.”
  15. There was concern from some about implementation issues, including possible fraud or other malfeasance in the selection process, the capacity of the US government and non-governmental organizations to handle refugee resettlement (especially when the Obama Administration bumped up the numbers in its final year), and admission of people whose attitudes on gender and other issues might make their adaptation to American mores and law difficult.
  16. Some issues commonly discussed in the public sphere at the time were not very important in discussions with these experts, on the left or right. None thought there was more than a proportional and therefore small security risk from resettled refugees. Most thought they represented a far lesser threat than immigrants of other sorts and native-born Americans.
  17. My overall conclusion is that there is more room for consensus across the political spectrum on resettlement than on immigration more broadly. So long as due diligence is faithfully conducted and the numbers can be capably handled by the resettlement agencies and welcomed by local communities, few saw a big problem with the numbers, so long as they do not go up or down precipitously. The limits are more practical than ethical, even if the imperative is ethical.
  18. But reaching and maintaining this consensus across the political spectrum would likely depend on keeping the issue of refugee resettlement separate from the general issue of immigration, especially at the southern border. I’m not sure that can be done, or that everyone would want to keep the two issues separate. But doing so would be best from a refugee perspective.
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Foreign policy is also made by omission

Secretary of State Blinken outlined Biden Administration foreign policy yesterday. Here is the short version:

  1. End the pandemic
  2. Rebuild the economy
  3. Protect democracy
  4. Treat immigrants humanely but reduce incentives for migration
  5. Revitalize relations with friends
  6. Slow climate change
  7. Lead in hi tech
  8. Manage the rise of China

All of this is to be done with two things in mind: benefiting Americans and mobilizing other countries to carry part of the burden.

Tony is also at pains to underline that all these foreign policy issues have important domestic dimensions and that diplomacy will come before military action. The former is not new and underlay Trump’s “America First” slogan, especially on trade issues. The latter isn’t new either, but it is diametrically the opposite of what Trump was inclined to do. He thought cruise missiles and drones could get the US out of Syria without any need for talking with anyone. He tried talks with the Taliban, but did not wait for them to succeed before withdrawing half the troops.

It’s hard for me to quarrel with much of what Tony said. But there are things missing, as Tony acknowledges. Often in international affairs, as in domestic politics, what is not said is as significant as what is said.

Apart from the mention of China and some other geopolitical threats (Russia, Iran North Korea), there is no mention at all of specific regions and little of specific countries. My friends in the Middle East and the Balkans should take note. You are not going to get all the attention you crave. This is a major change from the traditional diplomatic “tour d’horizon” and suggests a shift from the State Department’s traditional emphasis on bilateral relations, as represented in its “geographic” bureaus and accentuated in the transactional Trump Administration, to “transnational” issues represented in State’s “functional” bureaus.

Among the “transnational” issues, one important one is omitted: nuclear non-proliferation. This may reflect a realistic recognition that with respect at least to North Korea and perhaps even Iran the cat is out of the bag: we are not going to be able to convince them to give up their nuclear ambitions entirely. It may also reflect a desire to leave room for some of our friends and allies to respond in kind. We’ve long exercised a tacit double standard with respect to Israel’s nuclear weapons. We might be willing to do so for other countries like Japan or South Korea whose neighbors threaten them with nukes. Trump famously uttered this heresy out loud, but his departure doesn’t make the issue evaporate. Confidence in the American nuclear umbrella fades as Pyongyang acquires the capacity to nuke Los Angeles.

Of course the urgent in foreign policy often comes before the merely important. Tony knows he won’t be able to ignore Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the Palestinians, democratic backsliding in the Balkans, the coup in Burma, or the agreed withdrawal from Afghanistan, which the Administration needs to either confirm or postpone. This Administration’s minds and hearts are in the right place. But that does not guarantee success. They face a challenging global environment, not least from all the omissions.

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Stevenson’s army, March 4

The US government makes few Big Statements on foreign policy. Most common is the National Security Strategy Report, which previous administrations have issued just once in 4 years, usually in the second year. The language is anodyne; it’s hard to find anything to disagree with. But once issued, the documents become gospel, regularly quoted in interagency meetings as “proof” of what the President wants.
The Biden Administration is off to a fast start. Yesterday the WH issued  “Interim National Security Strategic Guidance.”  Defense News has a good summary.
SecState Blinken also made a major policy speech. WaPo notes the highlights.
NYT reports secret order on drone strikes, said to be temporary pending review, reversing Trump policy delegating authority to operational levels. [Readers here may know that I have long favored the Hughes-Ryan model of presidential decision and congressional notification of drone strikes and offensive cyber operations.]
In other news, Germany is conducting FONOP in South China Sea.
FP says Biden is giving Turkey a “silent treatment.”

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, March 3

– The Hill  says FBI Director Wray hinted at forthcoming sanctions for the Solar Winds hack, saying they would be joint, public-private, and sequenced.
-The administration and EU announced sanctions on Russia in the Navalny case.
-David Ignatius is unhappy with the Khashoggi sanctions. The administration’s fallback position is planned sanctions against people who punish journalists or dissidents.
– David Von Drehle says Biden should accept defeat in Afghanistan and pull out.
– Dan Drezner says economic statecraft is changing.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Competence and reality will win over ineptitude and lies

Today’s news is full of contrasts. The Administration has managed to ensure sufficient vaccines for the entire American population will arrive a couple of months earlier than previously programmed. The Texas Governor is lifting all COVID-19 restrictions, without any scientific basis and in the midst of a modest rise in cases in his state. Neera Tanden is withdrawing her nomination because she offended some Republican senators, who weren’t nearly as offended by Donald Trump’s grossly inappropriate tweets that got him banned from Twitter. The FBI director testified that the January 6 insurrection at The Capitol was domestic terrorism committed by Trump supporters and rightwing extremists, several hundred of whom have now been charged, while some Republicans are continuing to spout the lie that it was the work of leftists associated with the non-existent organization Antifa and maybe Black Lives Matter.

In short, we are living in an America where there are people in good touch with reality who are able to get difficult things done and others who prefer their own fantasies. Damn the consequences, even if that means shutting down the country’s second largest state for a week because it didn’t require electric utilities to prepare for the cold or connect the state’s grid to the rest of the country. Republicans in a way are proving their point: government really can be a menace, but mainly if it is incompetent, capricious, and ignorant. They are accusing and convicting themselves, not President Biden and his still new Administration.

The country is responding well to Biden, whose calm and restrained demeanor and popular proposals for reviving the economy are gaining approval ratings Trump never even came close to. Trump is still thundering, but like a storm that has passed. His speech at CPAC got little reverberation. He will nevertheless be able to keep control of most of the Republican party, as he is amassing a lot of money that can ensure primaries against those who want to turn the party back to its true, and desirable, conservative vocation. Trump will ensure that some of the worst candidates ever nominated win Republican primaries, people who make the QAnon fantasist and racist Marjorie Taylor Greene look reasonable. That’s fine by me: they’ll win some elections in safe Republican districts, but wherever there is serious political competition they will go down to defeat as true conservatives and independents flock to more reasonable Democratic candidates.

The party in the White House usually suffers losses in the mid-term elections. 2022 will therefore be a test of my proposition: Biden stands a good chance of doing better than usual and maintaining control of both the House and Senate, which both have narrow Democratic majorities. That would be the kind of electoral defeat for Trumpism that is needed to end Republican infatuation with racism and flirtation with violent extremism. It will be a fine November when competence and reality again win over ineptitude and lies.

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