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The future of the Islamic State

The Atlantic Council March 4 hosted an event to discuss the group’s current activities and prospects of an ISIS resurgence, including the Caliphate’s impact and demise (2014-17), as well as current and future ISIS activities not only within Syria and Iraq but throughout the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

Speakers:

Mohammed Abu Rumman
Expert, Politics and Society Institute; Former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture

Borzou Daragahi
Journalist and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council

Andrew Peek
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq

Mara Revkin
National Security Law Fellow, Georgetown University Law Center

Banan Malkawi (Moderator)
Jordanian-American Researcher and Lecturer

Resurgence Unlikely:

Moderator Banan Malkawi described the ISIS insurgency as a watershed moment for violent extremism. We need to ask “What are the key expectations for the future of the Islamic State as an organization?” The consensus was that an ISIS resurgence is unlikely, though all the speakers acknowledged the threat that the group still poses within the remote pockets where they continue to operate.

Revkin discussed her experiences doing fieldwork in Iraq, noting that conversations she has had with Iraqis suggest there is no easy way to accurately assess the threat ISIS poses to Iraqi society. Just counting weapons and people involved in ISIS activity will not work without examining the socioeconomic and political environment that the group is operating in today. There are multiple drivers of instability in Iraq, only few of which are directly attributed to ISIS. An ISIS resurgence to their 2014 capacity is nearly impossible because of the violence they committed against Sunni communities. They just don’t have the necessary levels of public support.

Sectarian Divisions and Deal Making:

Peek agreed. The viability of a ISIS resurgence is limited, because Sunni politics is marked by pragmatism and deal making. An ISIS resurgence is more likely to happen in Syria than in Iraq, but  the chances of either are still limited as long as the Syrian Democratic Forces (and their partnership with the United States) remains strong. “It is a dark time for Sunnis in the Levant,” he said.

Daragahi explained the structure of ISIS and noted the group thrives in ungoverned areas. Its social media and internet strategy has shifted into darker, more secure corners of the internet. ISIS has had to redirect its thinking and recruitment tactics in order to continue to survive. It exploits failed states, whether in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sub-Saharan Africa or other pockets of the world. Thriving on grievances is how the group has managed to stay alive, albeit in a lowered capacity.

The rise of Salafi jihadism and sectarianism have been the keys to ISIS survival, according to Mohammed Abu Rumman. Some of the theories that have emerged in recent months regarding the group and their external support from partners and governments were shot down by both Daragahi and Rumman. ISIS will continue to operate in ways that ensure its survival, but the group will likely remain self-funded.

The international community and governments that have been working to delegitimize ISIS should continue, as countries such as Iraq and Syria still face threats from the group and feel the residual impact from its time in power.