Stevenson’s army, June 24

WSJ says new intelligence assessment says Afghan government could collapse as soon as 6 months after US withdrawal.
In testimony Wednesday, Gen. Milley was less pessimistic. Austin and Milley told a Senate hearing last week they believe there is a “medium” risk of terrorist groups regaining strength in Afghanistan, saying it could happen in two years. Presumably President Biden considers these risks acceptable. This reminds me of the Nixon & Kissinger view that they needed a “decent interval” between the end of US combat in Vietnam and the collapse of Saigon. Here’s some of the evidence: Wikipedia;  the Nixon tapes; and Kissinger’s handwritten notes. Here’s another summary.
In other news, the debt ceiling looms with no clear plan.
Earmarks are popular.
And SAIS prof Vali Nasr says an Iran deal is possible.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).