It’s not a secret, it’s overt

Denaid Basic of Raport.ba asked questions last week. I replied:

Q. A few days ago, the United States induct [sic] sanctions on Milorad Dodik, a member of the BiH Presidency. How do you think these sanctions will affect Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also Milorad Dodik?

A: Dodik will pretend he doesn’t care, and the sanctions may not affect him much personally. Whatever corrupt gains he has will be carefully hidden and not in international cash transactions that the US can block.

BUT: the sanctions are a warning to his supporters. They should assume that if they support de facto secession, in the RS parliament for example, that they will also be sanctioned. It is also a warning to other corrupt political leaders in the Balkans and elsewhere: the US is prepared to sanction even those in high office.

Q: Are these sanctions sufficient to defuse tensions in BiH? Do you think that the political situation can calm down?

A: No, I don’t think the sanctions will have a calming effect. Dodik will press ahead until he recognizes that the effort is costing him political support.

Q: Does the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, had an influence on tensions in BiH? Why is the situation in BiH making worse, as this was not the case even after the war?

A: Vucic has made clear his support for the “Serbian world,” that is Greater Serbia. That is an important factor in encouraging Dodik and destabilizing Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Q: What is your opinion on that the EU needs to follow the example of the USA in terms of  sanctions? Do you think this is possible at the moment when in EU there is dissagrement within the Union over the sanctions?

A: I doubt the EU per se will do what the US has done, but if key member states and the UK levy sanctions that would be good.

Q: How do you see the situation in region? Is the closeness of Edi Rama and Aleksandar Vučić too sudden? Is this some secret plan of Vučić?

A: Albania and Serbia picture themselves as leaders in the region. The plan isn’t secret–it is overt. Vucic wants through Open Balkans to share hegemony in the region with Rama. Kosovo and so far Montenegro are resisting. Only if they can join on a fully equal and sovereign basis with Serbia and Albania should they begin to consider the proposition. The same should be true for Bosnia and Herzegovina.