The real but strange superbowl is next week

The impending Russian attack on Ukraine will trigger a war for geopolitical dominance in Europe between Russia and the United States. But Washington will not be fighting with its own troops. Ukraine will get lots of help from the US and its NATO allies, but Kyiv is not a member of the Alliance and therefore not entitled to its collective defense.

Russian war plans

Russia has wisely chosen a relatively weak adversary, as it did also in Georgia in 2008. Kyiv is a bit more than 100 miles from Russia-allied Belarus (less as the crow flies), where Moscow has mounted a substantial invasion force. It would be foolhardy for Russia to try to capture Kyiv. Doing so would cause massive destruction to a city where Moscow will want to install a post-war puppet government. But a feint from the north is inevitable, to keep Ukrainian forces pinned down there. A smaller move from Moldova in the west is also likely.

In the meanwhile, Russian forces from Crimea, the rebel areas of Luhansk and Donetsk, and amphibious landing ships will aim for Mariupol and other towns along the Sea of Azov littoral. A land bridge to Crimea will be their objective. If they succeed at that, they may try to go all the way to Odesa. Cut off from the Black Sea, surrounded, and defeated, Ukrainian forces would surrender, the government would flee or fall, and Moscow would be in charge of the entire country.

The Ukrainians have a chance

None of this is inevitable. The Ukrainians may surprise the Russians with stiff resistance and newly acquired advanced weapons, including Turkish drones and American anti-tank Javelins. While surrounded, the Ukrainians have the advantage of shorter interior lines of communication. They will also be fighting on their home turf. It is anyone’s guess how many thousands of troops Putin can lose before abandoning the invasion. But it is wise to remember this:

Stalin, Peter the Great and Ivan the Terrible especially, all of whom not only both glorified the state while abusing its people, but also, literally killed (Ivan), or were involved in killing (Stalin and Peter) their own offspring. 

Once he starts, Putin will be hard to stop, no matter what the losses.

Diplomacy isn’t working yet

He is proving hard to stop even before the attack. There is no sign yet of Russian second thoughts. Moscow continues to prevaricate, saying it has no plans for an invasion of Ukraine. President Biden has done an admirable job of lining up the NATO allies. But only time will tell whether they are ready and willing to impose serious sanctions on Russia, cutting it off from the international financial system and from revenues of the Nordstream 2 natural gas pipeline.

President Biden is in a difficult spot. Americans don’t want to defend Ukraine. But in the wake of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, a Russian takeover in Kyiv will underline American weakness. Biden needs either to convince Putin not to invade Ukraine, or make the sanctions that ensue far more punishing than the usual. The pre-emptive use of intelligence on Russian false flag operations and military deployments is a clever tactic. It has made clear to Western audiences who will be at fault for the Russo-Ukrainian war. But that won’t save Biden from ferocious criticism if it happens.

This is a geopolitical contest with one adversary fighting with both hands tied behind its back, or geopolitics by proxy. The real but strange superbowl more than likely kicks off next week.