Putin still has dirty tricks up his sleeve

Russian President Putin has suggested he is withdrawing some forces from around Ukraine. No Westerner has yet confirmed this. President Biden yesterday cited a new, higher number: 150,000 troops. That is 20,000 more than previously reported in the media. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg has said there was no evidence of troop withdrawal yet.

Russian plans

But even if true, Putin’s hint at troop withdrawal may betoken little. He never had enough troops surrounding Ukraine to invade and occupy the entire country. More than likely the Russian plan is to take a relatively small portion. My bet has been on a push in the south to extend the Russian area of control along the Sea of Azov as far as Ukrainian forces permit. The troops in Belarus to the north and Transnistria in the west would do just enough to prevent Ukraine from redeploying forces to counter the real offensive in the south.

It is also possible Russia will not use overt military force but rely instead, as it did in Donbas in 2014, on proxy forces backed by Russians with no overt insignia. Or Putin could use “private” security forces like the Wagner Group. This would be risky militarily, as Ukrainian forces have improved a good deal. But the domestic political backwash from losses would be lessened. It is also possible NATO member states would turn a blind eye, or at least reduce their reaction, to the use of proxy forces.

Military action is not Russia’s only option. Just keeping enhanced forces on Ukraine’s border will create uncertainty, which discourages investors and raises insurance rates. Disinformation does likewise. Moscow presumably has enough minimally credible intelligence on Ukrainian malfeasance to launch innumerable attacks on its ruling elite. Where the Russians lack information, they are good at inventing it. Moscow can also rent crowds to create disorder and sponsor terrorist attacks mounted to look like attacks on ethnic Russians. Russian hackers have penetrated Ukraine’s cyberspace, raising the likelihood of continuing attacks on critical computer capabilities.

The Western reaction

The White House has been revealing Moscow’s plans in order to preempt them. This has been an effective tactic. The National Security Council has reportedly prepared an extensive playbook on how to react to various scenarios. We should hope this includes non-military ones. Putin is good at using all the elements of national power to undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia’s neighbors. The West has to be at least as agile, and punishing, in response. Washington has repeated ad infinitum the mantra “Europe whole and free.” It was an attractive proposition in the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse.

But Europe whole and free isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Putin has made his choice: Russia is now an autocracy with imperial aspirations in its neighborhood. He will need to defend those aspirations as well as his own hold on power with whatever means he has available, because many Russians and most Europeans and Americans won’t be interested in helping him. Putin still has lots of dirty tricks up his sleeve.