Doubling down will make things worse

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan. Kyiv is not yet captured. Russian losses are substantial. Russian air power and logistics have been ineffectual. A war that Moscow imagined would be an easy walk has turned into a hard slog.

Both the Russians and the internationals are doubling down

Still Putin has no reason to abandon the effort. Kharkiv is all but surrounded. A long military convoy is close to Kiev. The Russians have made progress in the south. Putin will double down, throwing more military resources into the fight. The Russian Army has started to launch artillery shells into civilian areas. That will enhance the flow of refugees and displaced people, complicating the Ukrainians’ responsibilities. Russia hasn’t yet exhausted his its cyber capacities. It could still turn out the lights and the cell phones. Moscow could also strike outside Ukraine. Georgia and Moldova are vulnerable to Russian forces. Or worse: the Russians could strike the Baltics or Poland, bringing NATO into the war.

Ukrainian capacity to double down is limited, but NATO and partner countries are a force multiplier even if not yet belligerents. The sanctions adopted go much further than anyone anticipated. Central banks have blocked Russian access to most of its own reserves in foreign currency. International financial transactions are getting to be impossible. Technology controls will take longer to bite, but bite they will. Weapons and ammunition are flowing rapidly into Ukraine from its supporters, now including Germany.

How can this end?

Sooner or later, this war will end. What are the possible scenarios?

1. A Russian military victory in a week or two, without much further destruction. This now seems unlikely, if only because the Ukrainians are determined to fight on. Russia would still have its hands full pacifying the country. It will meet passive and active resistance at every turn. Sanctions will remain in place, wrecking the Russian economy. Russia will be forced to rely on China to evade them.
2. Months of siege warfare, with a lot of destruction. If the Ukrainians can hold out, Moscow will also persist, causing massive damage in Kiev, Kharkiv, and other cities. Eventually a Russian puppet government will be installed. Sanctions will remain in place, not only wrecking the Russian economy but also making required reconstruction in Ukraine impossible. Russian reliance on China will be even greater. Again, the Russians will face passive and active resistance.
3. A coup in Moscow. Putin’s oligarchs are already jumping ship. His Defense Minister and Chief of Staff looked noticeably unhappy meeting when he ordered them to put Russia’s nuclear weapons on alert (video above). Coups in the aftermath of military setbacks have happened before in Russia. It could happen again, though it would not necessarily bring to power someone who wants to change Moscow’s autocratic direction.
4. A popular revolt in Russia. This is perhaps Putin’s greatest fear. The anti-war demonstrators in Russia have numbered in the thousands so far. If the war continues, they could start numbering in the tens and hundreds of thousands. Putin did little to prepare the Russians for killing Ukrainians, presumably because he thought the Ukrainians would fold easily. His disinformation machine is now working overtime, but it is late in the game.

Yes, I would favor this fourth outcome. Popular revolts have a clear record of producing faster and more democratic outcomes. But they require a degree of commitment and planning that hasn’t yet been evident in Russia.

A fifth scenario

It is also possible the Ukrainians, and democracy, will win. This is an even lower probability than a quick Russian victory. But it could happen. The Russians would withdraw and pay reparations, as Iraq has done to Kuwait. The West would provide massive assistance for reconstruction. The EU would begin a serious accession negotiation. Ukraine would crack down on corruption, attact foreign investment, and begin to catch up economically with Poland and Hungary. Russians would notice and insist on their own democratic regime.

Yes, doubling down is going to make things worse, but we can always dream.