Sit tight, unite, and prepare for opportunity in Russia

I missed the start last night, but Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group rebel forces are still moving toward Moscow from Rostov-on-Don today. They made it half way so far, to somewhere past Voronezh. That itself is amazing. Why hasn’t the Russian air force torn the Wagner column to pieces?

The outcome is uncertain

The outcome is however entirely uncertain. The insurrection could still fizzle. It could suffer catastrophic defeat. Wagner could become mired in a stalemate. Or it could succeed in chasing Putin from the Kremlin. Chechen forces are said to be getting ready to stop their progress toward Moscow. But those forces also have reason to be unhappy with Putin, so will they do the necessary for him?

Nor should we regard Prigozhin’s Wagner forces as heroes. They have fought, tortured, and robbed in Syria and several countries in Africa (Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and Sudan). They participated in the Trump-encouraged hacking of the US presidential election in 2016. Prigozhin is no more of a democrat than Putin. Maybe less.

Insurrection could have consequences, even if it fails

But this insurrection, even if ultimately unsuccessful, will have consequences if it lasts more than a day or two. Putin’s hold on power will look tenuous. Russian troops in Ukraine, already demoralized, may hesitate to follow orders from a military command fighting Russians on the outskirts of Moscow. Some might even join the rebellion.

Ukraine’s army will be emboldened and press its counteroffensive harder. Distracted, the Russian army command could make serious mistakes, of either commission or omission. Fighting on two fronts is never easy, but if one is your home front it is likely to get priority.

Belarus could rise against President Lukashenko, who lacks electoral legitimacy. Constituent republics of the Russian Federation might do likewise. Russia might “rupture.” Moscow could find itself fighting not just with Prigozhin but also with half a dozen other rebellious forces.

Sit tight

The West (read the EU, UK, and US) have little direct say in this situation. Brussels, London, and Washington will want to be cautious, lest they give Russians cause to unite. They will also worry that Putin, his back to the wall and his life at risk, could take desperate measures, like use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine or even against his enemies inside Russia. Until now, that has seemed unlikely, but the man is frightened and may have few other cards to play.

China, India, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and other countries that Putin has courted may try to come to his rescue, mainly by providing markets for Russian oil. Except for China, their means are limited. Beijing is more likely to wait until it sees the outcome, which will necessarily be a weakened Russia more dependent on Chinese largesse.

Prepare

A Russia without Putin would be an opportunity for the West. If the rebellion succeeds, a united Western front in dealing with Prigozhin will be vital. He is no more principled than Putin. Steering a post-Putin Russia towards complete withdrawal from Ukraine and encouaging emergence of something resembling democracy there will be a major diplomatic challenge. Now is the time to prepare for it.