Belgrade: a question of when, not if

A friend writes from Belgrade:

Vucic continues to psychologically set the conditions to prepare the population for war against Kosovo through the media and other means. These efforts have intensified recently:

–Vucic plans to invade the north of Kosovo as soon as it is politically expedient to do so;

–Timing depends on his perceptions of relative Russian strength/support, and Western weakness;

Perceptions of Western weakness

–The continued strength of Western support for Ukraine will play a large role in these perceptions. If Western support for Ukraine is seen as tepid or pushing Ukraine towards unwanted negotiations, then Vucic will feel emboldened;

–Vucic’s perceptions of Western weakness depend in part on feedback from Serbia’s recently reinvigorated lobbying effort in Washington, as well as feedback from Orban and Lajcak;

–Vucic’s perceptions of Western weakness/resolve also depend in part on US Ambassador Hill’s continued highly embarrassing and debasing public efforts to kow-tow to Serbia;

Deterrence is failing

–Vucic believes the West will not respond militarily to an incursion in the north of Kosovo and will only wag fingers and protest impotently, while calling for renewed negotiations;

–These opinions are shared by most educated Serbs and are seen as painfully obvious to all but the most sycophantic Western politicians and diplomats;

–The only Serbs who seem to disagree with this evaluation are those with a vested financial interest courting the EU and Washington, or those who support retaking Kosovo and think they can fool the West.

Thus, it is a question of when, not if, and a question of whether or not the US and EU can retain any deterrent credibility in the short to medium term.