Friends don’t let friends commit mass murder

Let’s leave aside whether the Israeli campaign in Gaza has constituted genocide. That depends on its government’s intentions. There are genocidal implications of what some Israelis, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have said. But we are far from the kind of evidence on intent that would be required for an indictment at the International Criminal Court. Nevermind a conviction. Let’s leave that question for after the war.

Is it worth it?

The immediate effects of the Israeli bombing are appalling. It has displaced at least half the population. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, which operates under the authority of Hamas, on the order of 15,000 people are dead. Forty per cent are said to be children. Gaza is densely populated. Half its population is under 18. So the Israelis are hitting fewer children than if they were shooting randomly, but not by all that much.

The number of Hamas fighters killed in Gaza is not known. It is likely not much more than the 1500 killed inside Israel during the counterattack October 7 and thereafter. The question is whether killing 10 or even 5 civilians for each Hamas fighter is reasonable. Proportionality between military action and result is an important criterion in the laws of war. So too is necessity. Is there no way other than what the Israelis are doing to destroy Hamas? I’ve addressed that question previously.

Next could be worse

If the fighting restarts after the current pause, we can expect worse. Much of Gaza’s civilian population has sought refuge in the south, as Israel advised. Those displaced will already be short of resources. The civilian population will be more concentrated and exposed, many living in the open rather than in buildings. Intensified bombing in the south will quickly kill more. It will also destroy much of the remaining civilian infrastructure.

Hamas will have taken refuge in its tunnels. Hitting them in the north is one of the reasons for the devastating destruction there, with perhaps half the buildings destroyed. Repeating that destruction in the south will be catastrophic.

Some Israelis hope the Gazans will flee to Egypt, which is resisting their entry. Egypt already hosts an extraordinary number of refugees. But even if Cairo opens the door, the result will be an influx into northern Sinai, which borders Israel. Extremists there are already rife. Would it really help to increase their recruiting potential and risk an assault in southern Israel?

Still worse after the fighting stops

The impact of war continues after the fighting ends. At some point, the Israelis will decide they have done enough. But that won’t end the effects of what they will have done. Disease, hunger, and radicalization will haunt the end of the Gaza war. All will be worse the longer the fighting lasts.

The international community knows how to deal with disease and hunger. It will flood Gaza with assistance of those sorts once the fighting stops, provided the Israelis permit it.

But we know little about avoiding radicalization, which even Netanyahu has acknowledged is a risk.

What is to be done?

Gaza is not going anywhere. It will remain a threat to Israel. That is a good reason not to completely alienate its population, which wasn’t fond of Hamas before October 7.

While President Biden has been jawboning the Israelis to target better and reduce civilian casualties, his diplomatic approach has not been effective. Some in Congress are suggesting imposing conditions on US aid to Israel. That proposition isn’t going to pass in either the House or the Senate. But the proposal may still boost those in Israel who think Netanyahu has gone too far. Friends don’t let friends commit mass murder.