How the Democrats will win

How the Democrats will win

I am a registered Democrat. Unlike most of the media and virtually all Republicans, I believe the Democrats can and will win. This is how they will do it:

1. Biden will withdraw as a candidate. Campaign contributions will balloon.
2. The convention will enthusiastically select a new candidate, most likely Kamala Harris.
3. She will choose as her vice president one of the younger Dems with a national security track record.
4. Both will run on Biden’s economic and political record and against Trump’s unpopular platform. Or if you want the official version.
5. Biden will campaign for her energetically in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
6. She campaign nationally but focus extra attention on Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.
7. The Democratic Party will produce a first-rate get-out-the-vote campaign drawing on younger voters.

Every step will be fraught with peril, but it is doable. Ukraine and Gaza may haunt the candidate, but rarely does foreign policy decide an American election.

Biden has succeeded…

Ultimately the merits weigh heavily in favor of the Democrats. The economy is doing at least as well as under Trump. Energy production and exports are way up. Consumption and imports are happily down.

The only real demerit is persistent inflation, which is slowing. It could still reach the 2% target sometime in the fall. Unemployment is up from historic lows due to the Fed’s anti-inflation rate increases, but employment growth is still healthy. Despite Trump’s opposition, Congress is providing ample assistance to American science and industry, green technology, and Ukraine. Contrary to Trump’s assertions, violent crime is declining. So too is illegal immigration, due to Biden Administration action that may not hold up in court.

…Trump will not

Biden took action because the Republicans blocked legislation to better control the border. Many of them want to ban abortion and in vitro fertilization countrywide. Trump has said he intends to deport tens of millions of immigrants and fire tens of thousands of civil servants. Neither is feasible or desirable. Republicans defend the January 6 rioters. Two-thirds even want them pardoned. Trump is intending to give more tax breaks to rich Americans while raising taxes (via across-the-board tariffs) on people who spend rather than invest. That’s why some rich Silicon Valley types are supporting him:

Day Two

Trump has vowed to be a dictator on Day One. You don’t have to ask how he will govern on Day Two if he allowed that opportunity. Only someone prepared to ignore the will of the people would run on the Republican platform. Even after the disastrous debate and the controversy surrounding his competence since, Biden is no more than a couple of points behind Trump. Once the Biden cloud has passed, the sun will shine.