Time for tough love in the Balkans

Friends in the Balkans wonder what the candidacy of Kamala Harris will mean for them. There is precious little direct evidence to go on. But some things are obvious. Biden’s withdrawal was no surprise. Nor was his endorsement of Harris. But her attitude towards the Balkans is anyone’s guess. Here is mine.

Extrapolating

Harris is a strong supporter of Ukraine’s struggle against the Russian invasion. She will want to see Kyiv win and Moscow lose. She won’t settle easily for partition. That attitude will likely transfer to the Balkans. I wouldn’t want to be the one telling a female, Black, and Indian President that people of different ethnicities can’t live together.

Harris is also hawkish on China, like Biden as well as Trump. Kosovo may look like Taiwan (and Ukraine) to her. That would mean it needs to be nurtured and defended from territorial claims by a former sovereign. She is unlikely to be sympathetic to the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities or the autonomy of Republika Srpska. Someone needs to advise her early and often that both are bad ideas.

Still extrapolating

This fall’s campaign and election in the US will be in large part about preserving liberal democracy, that is democracy based on equal individual rights protected by the rule of law. Those who want support from her Administration should be aligning themselves with that objective. Partitionists and ethnic separatists should take heed.

The Biden Administration has adopted a policy of appeasement towards Serbia. There is however no reason why Harris should continue it. President Vucic has oriented Belgrade eastward, aligning himself with China, Russia, and other autocracies, including Azerbaijan and Hungary. Serbian munition supplies to Ukraine are worth something, but they will likely flow for economic reasons even if the political soft soaping is ended.

Appeasement has manifestly failed. It is time for tough love. That’s something Harris’ hard-edged temperament will find amenable.

Who’s is charge?

While writing this post, I learned that Alexander Kasanof will be the deputy assistant secretary of state in the European bureau responsible for both the Balkans and public diplomacy. That combination is an innovation.

President Harris is unlikely to spend much quality time on the Balkans. People lower down in the bureaucracy count. Jim O’Brien will clearly remain engaged. I don’t know Kasanof, but his background in Ukraine may well be a plus for those who would like the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all the current Balkan states reinforced. Besides, he is a Johns Hopkins/SAIS graduate. Let’s hope he knows about tough love. I wish him well!