Harris is gaining while Trump steps in it

Donald Trump managed yesterday to turn an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists into a campaign debacle. He claimed that Kamala Harris, who went to historically Black Howard University and became a member of a Black sorority, had not always identified as Black but rather as Indian. She in fact is Black and Indian. Her father was a Black Jamaican and her mother was an Indian Tamil. She grew up identifying as both.

Why would a presidential candidate even mention a competitor’s racial origins? Why would he do so in a demonstrably false way? What did he hope to gain from this strange assertion?

What did he think he was doing?

Trump’s faux pas could be just a mistake. His cognitive capacity is in doubt. He often says “weird” (and offensive) things. This could just be another one.

That is hard to believe. His campaign has surely briefed him extensively on Harris’ background and biography. He should know by now where she went to university. He has a particular interest in immigration and had for years challenged Barack Obama’s illegibility for the presidency based on the false claim that he was born in Kenya. Trump certainly knows the origins of Harris’ immigrant parents.

Trump was trying to cast aspersions. He was suggesting that she had been dishonest about her Black identity and is now only using it for political purposes. Trump may have hoped to suggest that she, like Obama, was not a legitimate candidate. He wanted to drive a wedge between Black voters and Harris, hoping to prevent her from reversing the modest flow of (mostly male) Black voters the polls show he has gained.

Failure is its own reward

He failed miserably. His audience knew that Harris identifies as Black as well as Indian. The country knows too. This faux pas makes him look worse in the eyes of Harris supporters and independents without gaining him much among his own fans. They already knew he is an insensitive racist and like him for it.

Harris has now drawn even with Trump in national polling and is improving in battleground states. Biden before withdrawing his candidacy had been running consistently behind Trump. Harris’ campaign has energized Democrats while the Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, has been dragging down Trump. He told the Black journalists it doesn’t matter who the vice presidential candidate is.

The election is still a long way off

Anything can happen between now and November 5. But for now Harris is gaining and Trump is lagging. Harris will name her vice presidential candidate in the next few days. The Democratic Convention August 19-22 should give her a bump, provided demonstrations don’t ruin it. The economy is weakening and inflation is flattening, which could mean a Fed interest rate cut in September. Today’s release of US prisoners from Russia is an unexpected plus.

But war between Iran and Israel? A jump in unemployment or inflation? A third party candidate who gains more traction? Violence against one or the other candidate? Catastrophic harm to US troops abroad? All of these downers?