Dark times, but the worst is yet to come

@blisterpearl tweeted:

The Trump Administration is moving to cut off military supplies to Ukraine. Europe is trying to step up its game. But it can’t substitute all of the American weapons and intelligence on which Ukraine relies. Secretary of Defense Hegseth has ordered a halt to offensive cyber operations against Russia. Moscow is still conducting cyber operations against the US.

Tariffs go into effect on Canada, Mexico, and China today. They are 25% for Canada and Mexico, and an added 10% for China. Americans consumers will pay them. The stock market knew what to think: it dropped 2% yesterday and is no doubt headed down further.

Elon Musk continues to weaken the US Government, including agencies that regulate his businesses. The courts continue to issue orders to stop his blockage of government funds, but the Administration is mostly ignoring those. Trump hopes “his” Supreme Court will back his authority to make the cuts.

The US Congress remains in Republican hands. Tonight their half will stand and applaud wildly during the State of the Union. Trump meanwhile is denuding the Congress of its most important responsibility: the power of the purse. He is not expending appropriated funds.

No cure in Congress before November 2026

The American people don’t support this. Many managed to forget the disasters of Trump’s first term and too many didn’t turn out for last November’s election. But most now think Trump is doing too much too quickly. That is what Presidents try to do early in their term, knowing that resistance will build later.

The first available cure is in by elections. Two will be held April 1 to replace members of Congress appointed to the Trump Administration. They are both in deep red districts in Florida. It would be a minor miracle if the Democrats were to win one, never mind both. Another will be in upstate New York at a date still to be decided. It, too, is a Republican safe seat, more or less. If I’ve got this right, even winning all three would not flip the House. Marco Rubio’s Florida Senate seat will be up for grabs only in November 2026.

So essentially we’ve got a Republican majority in both houses until then. The damage Trump will have done is enormous. But it will be much worse if the Congress remains in Republican hands thereafter.

Can the popular will change Trump’s course before the next election?

Polls won’t deter Trump, who can’t run again anyway. I’d like to see the Democrats walk out on the State of the Union address tomorrow night. Or maybe not show up at all. Or hold up photos of Ukrainian President Zelensky as soon as Trump mentions Ukraine.

I wonder whether dramatic manifestations of popular opposition can do what is needed. A statement from the ex-presidents would help. So too would a national day of protest, say on May 25, the day before Memorial Day. Each major city should organize its own demonstration, with a monster one in DC.

Some Republican defections would help. Republican Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, has criticized what Trump is doing on Ukraine. But she failed to mention his name. If she were to caucus with the Democrats, even as an independent, it would make a big difference. Better yet if she brings a friend or two. So far though, we’ve seen little indication of courage on her side of the aisle.

The worst is yet to come

We live in dark times. But the worst is yet to come.

The budget ax will fall on Medicaid this year, which provides health insurance to twenty per cent of Americans. Trump will need to increase agricultural subsidies to compensate for the retaliation his tariffs will generate. Tariffs and the roundup of immigrants will raise prices, which are already headed in the wrong direction. Trump’s first-term tax cuts for the rich, which he wants extended, will boost the deficit.

If Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine, Moldova will be next. And after that the Baltics. The dominoes will fall, unless Europe finds the wherewithal to back a Ukrainian victory.

But the biggest threat looming is the Supreme Court. If it upholds Trump’s egregious behavior in eviscerating the US government, American democracy is doomed. Already the Washington Post and other media outlets are bending to Trump’s will. With the Supreme Court backing him, no opposition will stand a chance.