It doesn’t sound quite right

Israel has established control over Iran’s airspace and is now attacking at will. But it has not yet destroyed either of Iran’s main enrichment sites. Nor has it tried to kill the Supreme Leader, so far we know. That’s the next decision point.

If the aim is nuclear, Fordow is where it’s at

Israel claims it is attacking Iran because of its nuclear program, especially uranium enrichment. The enrichment site at Natanz has suffered above ground damage, including to its power plant. That may have damaged the underground centrifuges. Fordow still shows no attack damage. There the centrifuges are 100 yards underground. There is also a third, newer and deeper enrichment site not yet in operation.

Fordow and the new site are so deep the Israelis can’t reliably destroy them. The the bombs they are capable of delivering are not powerful enough. They might bomb the entrances to block them, or land a ground force to blow them up. Or they can ask the Americans to do it with 5000-bomb behemoth bombs.

President Trump is refusing to comment on possible US involvement in offensive operations against Iran. That is a sign the Americans are at least thinking about helping out. Destroying Fordow and the third site would return Iran to a year from its earlier “threshold” nuclear status. Trump caused this war. He’ll want to be in on it if Israel is going to win.

Or is the Islamic Republic the real target?

Rumint suggests Trump has asked Netanyahu not to kill the Supreme Leader. That gives Trump incentive to help with the enrichment sites.

But it surely displeases Netanyahu. He seems as much interested in regime change as in destroying nuclear sites. Hostility towards the Islamic Republic is a pillar of his career. He won’t want to end this war with it still in place. Just as he doesn’t want the Gaza war to end with Hamas in place. If he can destroy both, he can even hope to win a post-war election.

Israel has killed lots of Iranian military commanders and scientists. Killing Khamenei would up the ante. There is no telling who might take his place, or whether the institutions of the Islamic Republic would survive. Khamenei is bad. A successor could be worse. Or not. No one knows.

Protection or perdition?

The guy who says he is protecting the world doesn’t know either. His thirst for destruction seems insatiable in Gaza. Why would it be less in Iran? He may think he is protecting the world while sending it down the path to perdition. Without a vote, even inside Israel. For the sake of his own career. Doesn’t sound quite right.

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