Bunker buster or not, that’s the question

The Israelis have succeeded in sucking Donald Trump into their war with the Middle East. He is already saying “we” when referring to Israel’s successes in destroying Iran’s air defenses. “We” are also threatening to kill the Supreme Leader.

This talk is inappropriate, and the Israeli war was ill-advised. More diplomacy was in order. But still there is a big question out there.

The predicament

If Iran keeps its deeply buried Fordow enrichment facility, any ceasefire will allow Tehran to rush to build a nuclear weapon. That is not in the US interest, or in the interest of most of the rest of the world.

This has put the US in a predicament. It can refuse to use one of its bunker busters, but that will leave the Israelis with the task. They could try to do it with a special forces air and ground raid. Or they could use their 2000-pound bombs, which experts think can do no better than block the tunnel entrances.

Unless the Israelis can be certain Fordow and any other enrichment facilities are destroyed, they will continue the war. Prime Minister Netanyahu might welcome that, since he wants regime change.

The quicker way to end the war short of regime change is to use two 30,000-pound penetrators (GBU-57 E/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP). Even that is not a sure thing. The US could acted under a thin veil of secrecy, without deploying forces to the region. The B2 bombers that carry the massive bombs could have accomplished the task flying from the United States, or many other places on earth.

What Trump will choose

But that is not Trump. He has already blown the possible (thin) cover of a B2 raid by talking openly about US involvement, threatening the Supreme Leader personally, and moving US naval assets to the Middle East.

He could insist that the Israelis try a special forces operation first. They might be willing provided he promises a B2 attack if it fails. My guess is that he won’t do that. He wants in on Israel’s success. He’ll go for the B2s. He should get a commitment from Israel first that the war will stop if the B2s are successful.

The wiser choice

Ironically, this is the wiser choice, even if for the wrong reasons. Allowing Netanyahu to continue to pummel Iran would be a mistake. That will kill many more Iranians and Israelis than ending the war quickly. Bombing rarely causes a population to turn against a regime. Regime change in Iran is up to the Iranians, not the Israelis. They would do better to focus on regime change in Jerusalem, not Tehran.