Trump is never getting the Nobel Prize

Donald Trump has a peacemaking obsession. He claims to have ended six (or maybe seven wars) during his second term. Two of them (Egypt/Ethiopia and Serbia/Kosovo) were not wars and the conflicts are not ended. If he did anything to improve those situations, it was in his first term, not his second.

Only two (Democratic Republic of Congo/Rwanda and Azerbaijan/Armenia) show verifiable signs of Trump involvement. Both peace agreements were signed at the White House. The former is already failing and the second could as well. Cambodia/Thailand, where Trump’s involvement is undocumented, is also shaky. Trump was instrumental in bringing about the Israel/Iran ceasefire, but only because the US helped Israel to win. That’s not exactly peacemaking.

All these claims include lies, fabrications, and exaggerations.

Now Ukraine

Trump has in the past few days put himself at the center of peacemaking between Russia and Ukraine. He met Friday in Alaska with Russian President Putin and Monday with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Washington. Key European leaders accompanied Zelensky, to offer a counterweight to Putin.

Putin has convinced Trump that the conflict is about territory. That appeals to Trump’s real estate instincts. Real estate is divisible. That makes deal making easy. It is true that Russia has annexed four Ukrainian oblasts and occupied most of their territory. But it isn’t really about territory.

Putin’s real goal is to end Ukrainian sovereignty. A free and democratic Ukraine is a threat to Russia, but not because of its military might. What Putin fears is a Slavic alternative to his own increasingly autocratic rule. A thriving democratic state next door is not a good look for Putin. Russians might get ideas. Besides, they never really thought the “Little Russians” deserved independence.

Putin knows NATO will never invade Russia. If a free Ukraine of any size exists after this war, I’d bet Russia will want it in NATO. The Alliance is the best guarantee available that Ukraine will not attack Russia or seek its own nuclear weapons.

Making peace for real

If Trump wants peace in Ukraine, his assistance to Israel suggests how to make it happen. The US can’t bomb the Russian forces, as that would start a war we shouldn’t want. But giving Kyiv whatever weapons and ammunition it needs to win the war is the shortest way the end it. Also the best.

The “secondary” sanctions on Russia’s trading partners that Trump has talked about but not levied are another good idea. They would not need to last long before the Russian economy sinks into a severe recession. Putin would then himself be at risk. That is how to get him to the negotiating table.

Trump won’t do what is needed

Trump knows that a Ukrainian win is the quickest way to end the war. Russia would then be pushed back to its internationally recognized borders. Other would-be aggressors would be deterred.

Why he doesn’t do what virtually all Russia experts recommend is admittedly a mystery. It sends a clear signal of American weakness. Putin is enjoying that.

The Nobel Prize is out of reach

Trump’s craving for a Nobel Peace Prize is obvious. It isn’t going to happen. The meeting Trump wants with Putin and Zelensky may happen, but it won’t make peace. Zelensky won’t surrender territory and Putin won’t agree to a ceasefire. The Norwegians are too smart to fall for a Trump scam.

Since the Americans are siding with Russia, it is up to the Europeans to enable Ukraine to win. They don’t have a great record responding to aggression from the east, but let’s hope this time will be different. And maybe one of them earn the Nobel Prize for real.