Will Hamas surrender, fight, or evaporate?

The Trump Administration’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza calls for the unconditional surrender, disarmament and political exclusion of Hamas. It leaves the Israeli Defense Force in place and in charge for the immediate future. It also envisions an eventual Arab and Muslim peacekeeping force as well as Palestinian police. President Trump would chair an international committee overseeing post-war stabilization and reconstruction. The plan does not sketch any certain prospect of a Palestinian state, but it does imagine a reformed Palestinian Authority taking over responsibility in an ill-defined future.

The only concessions to the Palestinians are a possible route to statehood and a guarantee no one will be forced to leave Gaza or prevented from returning. Hamas would have to release all hostages, dead and alive, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and bodies.

Terms rejected in the past

These are terms that Hamas has rejected in the past. It has wanted the Israelis completely out of Gaza and the hostilities ended in order for the last prisoners and hostages to be exchanged. Hamas has been willing to give up its governing role, but not its weapons.

Warring parties don’t like to sign their own death warrant. This proposal essentially asks the remaining Hamasees to do just that. No Hamas leader would survive staying in Gaza for long if this proposition is accepted.

Has Hamas got any other option?

That may happen even if the Trump plan is rejected. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear he will not end the war without the complete defeat and eradication of Hamas as a military and political organization. Anything less would put his governing coalition in danger of collapsing. And if it collapses he will face accountability for the October 7 attack on Israel, in addition to the corruption charges still pending.

The majority of Israelis are against continuing the war, but the majority doesn’t rule until the next election, in October of next year. If Hamas rejects the 20-point plan, it will have to hold out at least until then. But there is no guarantee even then that either Netanyahu will lose or that a successor government won’t also decide to continue the war.

Hamas could try to go underground, outside Gaza if not inside. Some of its fighters could move to the West Bank while its leadership seeks safe haven in whatever Muslim countries will provide it, likely Iran but few others. Most Arab leaders are content to see Hamas destroyed. Key Arab states, Turkiye, and the Palestinian Authority have welcomed the Trump plan.

My answer

I have no way of knowing what is going on inside Hamas. But it does seem it is close to the end of its rope. Some will fight on, others will try to evaporate. Still, surrender seems unlikely. I fear we are just at one more turning point that doesn’t turn. All the remaining hostages are unlikely to be freed.

One more point: the US President taking charge of Gaza is a truly terrible idea. With any luck, someone will talk Trump out of that part of his plan.