The Trump through line is unrestrained power

President Trump is notoriously erratic. He contradicts himself, says one thing and does another, and backs down often (hence TACO). He appears unprincipled and idiosyncratic. His advocates claim this is good, as it keeps his adversaries off balance.

In foreign policy, that is certainly not the case. Consistency is vital in a chaotic world. It limits the risks of catastrophe. It also enables friends and allies to align quickly. Adversaries can then calculate the balance of power, which is more often than not in America’s favor. There is a reason the world thinks Trump is the greatest threat to world peace among current leaders.

The through line

But there is one source of consistency in Trump’s behavior. As Steven Miller makes clear, Trump thinks power is what rules the world. And he thinks he has enough to make himself not just a monarch at home but also an emperor abroad. Law be damned, despite his mumbled and qualified respect for it.

That is the through line from Minneapolis to Caracas and on to Gaza and Ukraine. Trump is an authoritarian who does what he wants to do. His entire business career was spent disrespecting contracts, laws, and courts. That ruined his reputation in New York real estate. But it was, he claims, successful. He has no reason to start respecting something as weak as international law now.

Respond to power with power

The only way to rein him in is to counter power with power, often of a different sort. That is what the demonstrators in Minneapolis have done. They have blunted ICE’s impact with aid to the affected and documented the Federal agents’ unprovoked and sometimes homicidal violence. Trump got the message in the media coverage and is now backpedaling.

Likewise, the Europeans countered Trump’s threats to Denmark’s sovereignty over Greenland. They filled the press with suggestions they would respond by dumping their large holdings of US Treasury securities. Trump responded by claiming he had an agreement with the NATO Secretary General as good enough reason to back off. I suppose NATO will now come up with something, but the supposed agreement doesn’t exist yet.

It isn’t always so easy

It gets tougher in Gaza and Ukraine.

Trump’s trusted son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is touting a reconstruction plan for Gaza. It would house many fewer people than the Strip did before Israel destroyed it. Nor is it clear those people would be its former residents or even Palestinians. They need to find a way not just to say “no” but to make sure Trump pays a price. Their refusal to move from Gaza coordinated with strong Gulf monarchy and Egyptian support would work.

In Ukraine, Trump is supporting Russian goals and has zeroed out US aid to Kyiv. The Europeans have stepped up their assistance, but they will need to do far more. Trump’s support for Russia is at least partly rooted in his belief that Moscow is more powerful and will win. Ukraine and Europe need to show him that won’t be true. A Ukrainian breakthrough on the ground would help.

But so too would getting Trump and his minions to Kyiv, where they have never even visited. They would find what I did last May. The conflict is existential for Ukrainians. They know what Russia does to people who persist in identifying as Ukrainian in the occupied areas. It’s not only their country but also their identity at stake.

This is not new or unprecedented. The conflict has lasted not four years, since the Russian full-scale invasion. Not 12 years, since the Russian seizure of Crimea. But 200 years or more. No one in Kyiv expects it to end with Putin or someone like him still in power in Moscow.

It’s time for Trump to understand that the quickest way to end the Ukraine war is to tighten the sanctions. And give Ukraine everything it needs to win.