This is peacemaking week. Yesterday the U.S. and Iran met again in Geneva seeking to avoid another US attack. Also yesterday and this morning the Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. met in Geneva for the umpteenth session to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Tomorrow Donald Trump’s Board of Peace will meet for the first time in Washington to discuss following up on the October ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. All three fora included as principals Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s go-to negotiators. No deep bench of the sort needed for issues of this magnitude is in evidence.
The Ukraine talks were a bust. Kyiv and Moscow remain far apart on territorial issues. Moscow wants all of five Ukrainian oblasts it has supposedly annexed, even though it has not yet occupied all their territory. Kyiv wants the confrontation line frozen where it is and refuses to allow permanent annexation of any of its territory. The Americans want agreement on territory before offering security guarantees, but Kyiv wants strong security guarantees first.
Moscow won’t accept any agreement that recognizes a truly independent and sovereign Ukraine free to make its own choices about allies. That is the core issue, not territory or security guarantees. Nor would anyone reasonable in Kyiv want to accept security guarantees from an America governed by Trump, who hasn’t wanted to help Ukraine win the war.
Bottom line: The quickest way for the Ukraine war to end is with massive European and American assistance to Ukraine in the form of armaments, economic support, and tightened sanctions on Russia. But that is precisely what Trump doesn’t want. He is still dreaming of doing big business with Russia and weaning Putin from China. Both ideas are poppycock.
The Gaza ceasefire is mostly one-sided. Hamas attacks occasionally, but Israel continues to attack inside Gaza on a daily basis. Ninety per cent of the Strip’s population is crowded along the Mediterranean beaches. Israel occupies more than half its territory (counting the buffer zone). Israeli attacks are taking a proportionately high civilian toll.
Trump has announced that his peace plan is proceeding to Phase 2. That entails stabilization and reconstruction. But Hamas has refused to disarm, which makes stabilization and reconstruction impossible. Israel will not allow it, and no one will attempt it with Hamas still in charge. The Board of Peace has named a Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. But its effectiveness in delivering services will depend on Israel’s cooperation.
Nor is there much sign of the forces needed for Phase 2. The Indonesians have announced that they are preparing 8000 soldiers. But Indonesians, though Muslim, aren’t going to have an easy time in Gaza. Besides the language problem, Jakarta does not recognize Israel, with which it would have to get along famously once its troops deploy. Egypt is training Palestinian police, but Israel has not agreed to let them into Gaza.
The Board of Peace itself is problematic. It is more Friends of Donald Trump (supposedly 27 of them, but we’ll see tomorrow) than anything like a coalition ready to help Gaza. Trump says it has anted up $5 billion. That is a small fraction of the needs.
Bottom line: The Israeli extreme right, which wants to renew Jewish settlements in Gaza, is gaining ground with every passing day. They will try to convince Prime Minister Netanyahu to abandon Trump’s reconstruction plans and instead expel Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank while settling as many Jews there in strategic locations as possible.
The Iranians and Americans had not agreed on an agenda and did not meet in the same room. Iran will discuss its nuclear program but not the missiles and regional issues the Americans want on the agenda. Nor is Iran willing to give up uranium enrichment permanently, though it may well do so temporarily. It will in any event take years to rebuild the centrifuges that the US destroyed in June.
The Americans have deployed massive military forces for possible strikes on Iran. The financial and opportunity costs of that deployment are high. The Iranians know this and will stall for as long as they can. But they will also try to respond if the US attacks, focusing on Israel, US bases in the region, and the Gulf monarchies. If attacked, they have pledged a wider war this time around.
The Americans and Iranians reached agreement on some general principles. But no one has published or leaked the contents. One possibility is that they agreed to address only nuclear issues. That would be a TACO (Trump always chickens out) move that the Israelis won’t like. They want restraints on missiles and Iran’s friends in the region as well as Iran’s nuclear program.
Bottom line: No deal is better than renewed war. But which we get depends on the addled brain of a president more interested in bragging that his deal is better than Obama’s and getting a Nobel Prize rather than solving problems. That doesn’t bode well.
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