The United States and Israel have today initiated war with Iran to bring down the Islamic Republic. They hope to change the regime in Tehran to one that will abandon Iran’s nuclear program, limit its missiles, end its regional power projection, and abandon the goal of destroying the Jewish state. Trump’s options were never great. He has chosen the riskiest of them.
Yes, this violates the UN Charter
Those are all legitimate, even highly desirable, political objectives. But using force to achieve them is a clear violation of Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter:
All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.
The only exceptions are self-defense after an armed attack and UN Security Council authorization. What the US and Israel are doing fits the UN General Assembly definition of aggression:
Aggression is the use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations.
Few will care
Trump had already shredded much of the post-World War II rules-based order. This war with Iran is entirely consistent with his “might makes right” geopolitics. Resistance was already feeble. Now his supporters will rally around the flag. But in recent polling only 21% of Americans supported initiating war with Iran, including 40% of Republicans.
Those who opposed war with Iran won’t worry too much about the UN Charter. They will worry instead about the impact on US interests in the Middle East, the American economy, and Trump’s political future.
US interests
Apart from Israel, America’s friends and allies in the Middle East are not going to be happy. Iranian missiles are targeting them as well as the US bases in the region. Oil prices will rise, but volumes may be cut if Iran attacks production facilities and shipping or attempts to close the strait of Hormuz. The Arab states and Turkey don’t like Iran’s use of its parastatal regional allies, but they would have preferred negotiated restraints on them to war.
The American economy is already sputtering, with prices rising faster than the Fed prefers and job creation at close to zero. The oil price rise will contribute to inflation, likely for months to come. Defense production will need to ramp up, but that is not sufficient to carry the economy as a whole. I’ll leave the stock market predictions to others.
Trump has survived so much that it is difficult to predict the impact on his standing. Remember that George W. Bush got re-elected even after it was understood that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was a mistake. But Democrats and Independents are not likely to rally to his side. If this war drags on towards summer, it could add to what already already looks like a giant blue wave in November.
How long and with what results?
How long this lasts and its ultimate results are key questions. The Americans and Israelis have targeted the Supreme Leader and the Iranian President. It is not clear yet whether they hit their targets, or will in coming days.
If the war drags on, the odds of serious US and Israeli losses will increase. That could have a major impact on Trump, as he has not in the past been prepared to risk major losses.
Decapitation would initiate at least succession and possibly regime change, as Trump wants. But neither process will necessarily produce an outcome he will like. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the strongest institution backing the Supreme Leader. It will try to choose his successor as well as guide any change in the regime.
That is not good news. The IRGC is committed to the nuclear and missile programs as well as Iran’s regional allies. It is hard to picture it surrendering or even tacitly complying with Washington’s diktat to end those efforts.
Of course there are others who might emerge from the mists of war to govern Iran. Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu appealed to Iranians to take charge of their own fate. But regime change is a giant gamble. There is no guarantee that more reasonable people will be able to take power.