Do the Balkans really want EU membership?

While all eyes are on the Iran war, subtle but important changes are taking place with respect to the Balkans. I think the two most important are these:

1. The Trump Administration has abandoned state-building and instead wants local people to make the basic decisions on their fates.
2. Serbia and Albania have opted for second-class citizenship in Europe, hoping the EU will imitate the American hands-off approach.

The second development illustrates all too clearly why the first proposition can be a mistake, if pursued too narrowly. Everything depends on who the “local people” are. If they are people who want no accountability, they will choose a fate that excludes accountability.

What Presidents Rama and Vucic want is quick access to the Single Market and Schengen area. With that, they would forgo the veto rights and other privileges of EU members. This would be comparable to the EU arrangements with Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway as well as Switzerland. It works for them because they meet the EU membership requirements but choose for their own reasons not to join. Those reasons do not include defending against accountability, which is vigorous in all these countries.

Strange partners

It is strange that President Rama would team up with President Vucic this way at this moment. Serbia has fallen behind in the regatta for EU membership. After his election on a pro-EU platform in 2017, Vucic has done nothing to hold Serbia’s lead. Even the anti-EU politicians in Montenegro have pulled ahead of Serbia.

Vucic has instead focused on maintaining his security ties to Russia and expanding Belgrade’s economic opening to China. Serbia has refused to conform to EU Ukraine-based sanctions on Moscow. Vucic has vaporized the more liberal democratic part of his political opposition, along with independent media and rule of law. And he has tried to crack down on anti-violence, anti-corruption, pro-environment protesters. He wants no possibility of accountability. Freedom House ranks Serbia as “partly free” and slowly slipping further.

Albania has pulled ahead in the competition for EU membership. Rama too has partly vaporized his liberal democratic opposition. Freedom House ranks Albania as “partly free” as well, but slowly rising rather than slipping. Rama takes an anti-corruption stance in general. But he has been unhappy in specific instances and has sought to block action against high-level officials. Some think he is justified in doing so.

The question that has to be asked is why Rama would give up pole position in exchange for second-class citizenship? Is he concerned that the continuing EU focus on accountability will come to haunt him?

The American mistake

The Americans are not wrong to want local people to decide their own fates. But what is decided will depend on whom they ask. If you ask Vucic and Rama, they prefer lack of accountability to a real seat at the table. I doubt you’ll find many of the students protesting against Vucic or serious Europeanists in Tirana buying that proposition.

The occasion for the Trump Administration to state its “new” approach was the 30th anniversary of the Dayton accords. They brought peace to Bosnia, but are often criticized for having been imposed. The dirty secret is that the Americans at Dayton imposed what the warring parties (“local people”) said they would accept. That was a constitution guaranteeing the permanence in power of ethnic nationalists who had fought the war. No surprise.

So, yes, consult and empower people in the Balkans. But make sure at least some are people who genuinely share democratic values. That is asking a lot of an administration that captured President Maduro and left his regime in place. President Trump has said explicitly he intends to have a “big impact” in choosing the next leader of Iran. Delegating to local people doesn’t apply there. Trump is not someone who treasures democracy unless it is guaranteed to elect him or do his bidding.

Better is available

Whatever happens in Venezuela and Iran, Serbia and Albania deserve better. So do Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and North Macedonia. But they need to insist on the real thing. That’s EU membership, earned by meeting all the requirements of the acquis communautaire and the Copenhagen criteria. That includes serious institutions committed to accountability.

Opportunity is arriving. Iceland is thinking about a referendum on EU membership later this year. Ukraine could be ready well before 2030, provided it doesn’t lose the war. When the political window opens for Iceland or Ukraine, I hope the Balkan candidates will be ready and willing.