The Administration is doubling down on saying the US is winning the Iran war. The truth is the opposite. This war is lost.
The Islamic Republic is still in place. Its new Supreme Leader, the son of the previous one, is even more beholden to the hardliners than his predecessor. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and the other security forces are bruised but in control. They continue to launch drones, rockets, and missiles and control the strait of Hormuz. They allow through the ships they want and hold back the rest.
So long as Tehran has projectiles it can throw at Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies, this war won’t end. Even if the US stops attacking, why would Iran stop until it gets what it wants? Its President has said this includes recognition of Iran’s rights, reparations, and guarantees that Iran won’t be attacked again. The only significant guarantee is US withdrawal from the region.
None of that is going to happen. Trump is stuck in a war of his own making.
Nor will the war end if the IRGC still controls the strait. Tehran is interfering with “free transit” allowed by the Law of the Sea. Some think that illegal, but Iran won’t worry much about that. It will try to create a regime like the 1936 Montreux Convention Türkiye uses to control the Bosporus and Dardanelles. When Türkiye is a belligerent, hat allows Ankara complete discretion over who can pass.
Trump is insisting that America’s allies send warships to open the strait. They are mostly declining. There are three reasons:
Escorting tankers through the strait isn’t going to help much so long as Iran can attack them. It will expose any naval escorts to the same risks the tankers face. That is the reason Trump hasn’t followed through on his own promise that the US Navy would do the job. Why should anyone else?
Besides, the allies have a better option. They can negotiate with Iran, which would be wise to let at least some of their ships through. That would aggravate Trump and divide America’s allies.
Trump has been inconsistent about war aims. But he and Administration officials have cited:
Apart from destruction of the Iranian navy and maybe avenging past attacks, none of these are even close to fulfillment. And even the navy is still operating drone boats.
Let’s spare a few words for the victims. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu initiated the Iran war without regard for civilian casualties. Trump even got rid of the Pentagon unit assigned to protecting civilians. Netanyahu continues to claim that Israel protects civilians. But there is ample evidence it has loosened its usual rules of engagement in Gaza. Why wouldn’t it do likewise for Iran and Lebanon?
The results are catastrophic. Iranians, Israelis, Khaleeji (Gulfies–that’s what they call themselves), Lebanese, and Americans are all casualties. The Middle East has never known a wider war affecting more countries. Millions of civilians in Iran and Lebanon are fleeing at extraordinary rates. Humanitarian relief will not be readily available. A refugee crisis is inevitable.
The closure of the strait and the oil price rise will pinch in America and Europe. But it will be far more damaging in developing countries. Many millions of poor people around the world will see inflation in fertilizer and food prices. The global economy will enter recession. No one will be immune.
Ukraine will pay a special price. Trump has used the war to ease sanctions on buying Russian oil. Putin will receive an infusion of cash he very much needed. There are reports the Iranians are using upgraded versions of their own drones imported from Russia. And American munitions are being diverted from Ukraine to the Middle East:
Trump has already lost his war. But it is the rest of us worldwide who will pay for his mistake.
Trump wants to pull the plug. The Israelis don't. And the Iranians are demanding outcomes…
A year from now, we are likely to be remembering a highly effective military operation…
The devil is not only in the details, but in a highly uncertain future. This…
When the political window opens for Iceland or Ukraine, I hope the Balkan candidates will…
Even if the war were to end tomorrow, the impact would continue to ripple into…
The greater powers often excepted themselves from the rules-based order. Now it is in tatters.…