Stevenson’s army December 5 and 6
December 6
– DIA has done a big unclassified report on Iran’s military power.
– A law firm has done a good summary of recent sanctions policy.
– FP says State is excluding officials from information on senior officials’ phone calls.
-David Ignatius says State blocked a contract to train Saudi intelligence.
December 5
Something’s going on. I don’t know whether there has been a genuine increase in the threat from Iran or whether the administration is creating a pretext for military action in the region. Here are the dots that seem to connect: US officials are now revealing that Iran has secretly moved short range ballistic missiles into Iraq. Despite public denials, Pentagon reporters hear that the military wants to send an additional 14,000 US troops to the Middle East [but no details on location or types]. SecState Pompeo had an urgently scheduled meeting with IsraeliPM Netanyahu, where the key topic was said to be Iran. Under Secretary Rood made an even more explicit warning of Iranian military action.
Meanwhile, a former senior intelligence official says Trump often disputes what IC briefers tell him.
Kim Jong-un also seems to be ratcheting up his threats to change policy at the New Year.
Reuters says Jared Kushner is now playing a big role in China trade talks.
NYT study says US cluster munitions have caused many US friendly fire deaths.
A Syracuse professor burns a straw man in a WSJ op-ed. He decries any value in the “interagency process” because the president is in charge of foreign policy. Of course the president is the ultimate authority. But wise and successful presidents over the years have used the process to vet and revise their policies, and to implement them. Many of Trump’s setbacks have come precisely because he acted impulsively or ignorance of contextual details. [See, I don’t only send things I agree with.]
As an example of this process internationally, look at the detailed official statement from the NATO summit.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 4
– Julia Joffe paints a devastating picture of State under Trump — 52% of ambassadors are political.
– Dennis Jett piles on with more details about the political appointees.
– But in Congress there’s a new Diplomacy Caucus.
– CFR finds Americans ignorant about many foreign policy matters.
– Maybe Israel was behind long delay in giving Lebanon aid.
– Dexter Filkins looks at PM Modi and changing India.
-Optional reading: House Intell Committee report.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 3
– Despite the best efforts of foreign leaders to cozy up to
President Trump, he seems eventually to sour on them. Yesterday it was Brazil & Argentina.
– Revealing interview with SFRC Chaiman Risch, now sour on Turkey.
– WSJ says US intelligence says Iran is in serious economic trouble.
– Politico says GOP has given up trying to limit presidential trade powers.
– Australia is setting up a special unit to monitor Chinese interference.
– China is requiring facial recognition for new phones.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Trump and anti-regime protests worldwide
Notable protests against ruling regimes are occurring these days in Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, and Hong Kong. Recent months have seen similar protests in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Sudan. These are not your garden variety protests for more jobs or better wages, against police abuse and corruption, or in favor of improvements in education and health care. They are “regime change” protests: cases in which citizens have concluded that the social contract between themselves and their government no longer serves their interests. Rather than asking for reform, the protesters are asking for fundamental changes in the way they are governed.
Most of these protests are against regimes the US doesn’t much like. Washington is happy to see the Islamic Republic targeted not just inside Iran but also–despite good relations with Baghdad and Beirut–in Iraq, where Iranian consulates have been burned, and Lebanon, where Hizbollah is suffering criticism. The Bolivian president demonstrators chased from power, Evo Morales, was no friend of the US. Washington would like the same thing to happen to Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. In Sudan the Americans helped broker the agreement that deposed President Omar al-Bashir, whom the International Criminal Court indicted for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide in Darfur.
Hong Kong is a case of its own. There the protests are in favor of preserving the justice system’s autonomy and expanding democratic representation. President Trump, engaged in a massive tariff war with China, has been hesitant to criticize Beijing for fear of the cost to his trade agenda. But Congress compelled him to sign a bill providing for the possibility of sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials responsible for repression of protests. The bill passed both Houses with veto-proof majorities. It will be difficult, however, to convince Trump to use the authority provided, unless he feels it will help in some way his trade agenda.
With that exception, the protests seem good to President Trump. But take another look.
These protests are without exception in favor of more liberal democracy and rule of law, not less. In Iran, demonstrators want the fall of a regime that is an anocracy: it mixes democratic forms like elections and a parliament with a dictatorship of the Supreme Leader, backed by security forces loyal to him and not the elected President. In Lebanon and Iraq, the protests have targeted systems that share power on the basis of ethnicity rather than equal rights. Bolivian President Morales’ cardinal sin was tampering with election results, Venezuelan President Maduro has resisted yielding power to a constitutionally elected successor, and Sudanese President al-Bashir was a dictator ousted by the military but in response to popular demand.
Looked at this way, the protests are all antithetical to Trump’s ambitions inside the US:
- he seeks less participation in US elections, not more, and re-election not with the popular vote but with the vote in the Electoral College;
- he is refusing to cooperate with Congress’ constitutionally authorized impeachment proceedings;
- he has sought to enhance presidential power, not limit it;
- he has appealed to his base in blatantly ethnic, white nationalist terms; and
- he is seeking to insulate the US military from accountability and to make it beholden exclusively to him.
The goals of the regime-change demonstrators worldwide point precisely in the opposite directions.
Bottom line: the world the demonstrators want is not Trump’s world. It is the liberal democratic world ruled by law that he is seeking to destroy. You know whom I am rooting for.
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Peace Picks | December 2 – December 6
Lessons for Building Creative Economies | December 3, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Many countries around the world have large populations of impoverished people and high unemployment rates. In order to improve conditions in these countries, national governments must come up with effective economic growth strategies, and strengthening the creative industries should be at the forefront of these strategies. Over 100 countries have national plans for their creative economies, but few have made significant progress toward creating the enabling environment for creative industries—film, fashion, music, art, gaming, etc.—to thrive. World trade in creative goods and services grew at an average annual rate of 14 percent between 2002 and 2008, even during the 2008 global financial crisis. The countries with the largest creative economies in 2013 were the United States, China, Britain, Germany, Japan, France, and Brazil. The creative economy is a major driver of job creation, and countries that are implementing policies to boost their creative industries are already reaping the benefits. The longer countries wait, the more difficult it will be to create an enabling environment needed for culture and creative industries.
Overtaking Europe and North America, the Asia-Pacific is now the world’s leading region in CCIs, producing $743 billion in revenue in 2013. Through the launch of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy under President Donald Trump’s administration, the United States is rapidly expanding its engagement in Asia. Similarly, Taiwan launched the New Southbound Policy (NSP) in 2016, aiming to expand its development impact among its neighbors. One country that is looking for partners on the creative economy is Indonesia, which has enormous potential for growing both its creative imports and exports.
As part of this public event, CSIS will be releasing a report, Lessons for Building Creative Economies, based on recent case study trips to Taipei, Taiwan and Jakarta, Indonesia. The report will be posted on this webpage on December 3, and hard copies will be available at the public event.
This event is made possible with generous support from the Ministry of Culture of Taiwan.
FEATURING
Chairperson, Taiwan Creative Content Agency (TAICCA)
Senior Deputy Chairman, National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH)
Author, The Creative Wealth of Nations
Managing Director, American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia
The Afghan People Make Their Voices Heard | December 3, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
The past year has been marked by great uncertainty for the people of Afghanistan. Continued attacks, record-high levels of civilian deaths, and the repeated postponement of presidential elections have taken a toll on Afghan society. Meanwhile, unprecedented talks between the U.S. and Taliban inspired both hope and fear before they broke down in September. With confidence in a peace process still tempered by concerns over an abrupt U.S. withdrawal and the implications for Afghan women, the importance of comprehensive, reliable data on the views of Afghan citizens cannot be overstated.
Join USIP as we host The Asia Foundation for the launch of their 15th Survey of the Afghan People. First commissioned in 2004, the annual survey provides an unmatched barometer of Afghan public opinion over time and serves as a unique resource for policymakers, the international community, the Afghan government, and the broader public in Afghanistan. This year’s survey added new questions to further explore Afghan attitudes toward the peace process, elections, and the prospects for reconciliation.
Based on face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 17,812 citizens across all 34 Afghan provinces, the results reveal citizens’ views on a wide range of key issues, including security, the economy, corruption, justice, reconciliation with the Taliban, access to media, the role of women, governance, and political participation.
Speakers
Nancy Lindborg, opening remarks
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
David D. Arnold, opening remarks
President and Chief Executive Officer, The Asia Foundation
Abdullah Ahmadzai
Country Director, Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Tabasum Akseer
Director of Policy and Research in Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Amb. Daniel Feldman
Asia Foundation Trustee, Senior of Counsel, Covington &
Burling; Former U.S Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Scott Worden, moderator
Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
The Seas as the Next Frontier: Is Maritime Security in the Gulf a Flashpoint or Starting Point? | December 4, 2019 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | 1050 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 1060, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
On December 4, AGSIW hosts a panel discussion on the issue of maritime security in the Gulf.
The recent attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz were a potent reminder of the need for the Gulf Arab countries as well as their neighbors and international partners to address an issue of fundamental importance to the region: maritime security.
Until recently, most Gulf Arab countries paid scant attention to maritime security, despite its centrality to their economies. However, the situation has changed considerably in the last decade, as a result of a realization that their lack of military readiness in the Gulf waters and Indian Ocean is a substantial vulnerability. Regional ambitions and a desire to participate in international security initiatives also have served as catalysts for Gulf Arab states’ action.
Yet, even as tensions in and around the Gulf have grown so has a perception that maritime security may provide a sorely needed starting point for discussions between Gulf Arab states and Iran. How do recent events in the Gulf of Oman and elsewhere around the Arabian Peninsula figure into the broader context of regional maritime security? Do the Gulf Arab states share the same threat perceptions and agree on the remedies? What role can international partners play in helping to ensure freedom of navigation in these waterways, which are crucial to global commerce?
Speakers
Senior Fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Consultant and Policy Advisor
Senior Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation
Moderator
Visiting Scholar
The Middle East Institute’s 10th Annual Turkey Conference | December 4, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM | National Press Club, 529 14th Street NW, Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) are pleased to host the 10th Annual Conference on Turkey. The conference will bring together policymakers and experts to discuss the challenges Turkey faces domestically and its relations with the Middle East and the West.
Agenda:
9:00am-9:15am | Welcome Remarks
Knut Dethlefsen
Representative to the U.S. and Canada, FES
Gönül Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies, MEI
9:15am-10:45am | Panel I: Turkey after the Istanbul
elections
Ruşen Çakır
Journalist, Medyascope
Aykan Erdemir
Senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Fehmi Koru
Freelance journalist
Giran Özcan
Washington representative, Peoples’ Democratic Party
Gönül Tol (moderator)
Director, Center for Turkish Studies, MEI
10:45am-11:00am | Coffee Break
11:00am-11:45am | Keynote Remarks & Audience Q&A
Hon. Nils Schmid, MP
Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, German Bundestag
Congressman Brendan F. Boyle
Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Representatives, U.S.
Congress
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein (moderator)
Senior Vice President, MEI
12:00pm-1:30pm | Panel II: Art in the time of
authoritarianism
Kenan Behzat Sharpe
Founder & Co-Editor, Blind Field: A Journal of Cultural Inquiry
Ayşe Öncü
Professor, Department of Sociology, Sabancı University
Sarp Palaur
Director & Musician, Susamam
Lisel Hintz (moderator)
Assistant professor of international relations, Johns Hopkins SAIS
1:30pm-2:30pm | Lunch Buffet
2:30pm-4:00pm | Panel III: Turkey between NATO and Russia
Ivan Safranchuk
Associate Research Scholar & Lecturer, MacMillan Center for International
and Area Studies, Yale University
Aydın Selcen
Columnist, GazeteDuvar & DuvarEnglish
General (ret.) Joseph Votel
Distinguished Senior Fellow on National Security, MEI
Jim Zanotti
Specialist, Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service
Barbara Slavin (moderator)
Director of Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
4:00pm | Close
US Strategic Interests in Ukraine | December 4, 2019 | 11:30 AM | Capitol Visitor Center, First St NE, Washington, DC 20515, Congressional Meeting Room North (CVC) | Register Here
Perhaps more than ever before, Ukraine dominates the news and the domestic political conversation. Despite the ongoing debate, Russia continues to wage an undeclared war in Ukraine, which has led to the death of 13,000 Ukrainians. Additionally, Ukraine’s newly elected president and parliament face considerable challenges and opportunities as they pursue critical reforms and a just peace in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. This bipartisan event is meant to reaffirm US support for Ukraine, as well as to propose key policy recommendations for US lawmakers.
Speakers
Welcoming Remarks
The Hon. Marcy Kaptur
US Representative for Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
The Hon. Brian Fitzpatrick
US Representative for Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District
The Hon. Andy Harris
US Representative for Maryland’s 1st Congressional District
Special Remarks
The Hon. Chris Murphy
US Senator for Connecticut
Panel: Why does Ukraine matter to the United States?
Leon Aron
Resident Scholar; Director, Russian Studies
American Enterprise Institute
Ilan Berman
Senior Vice President
American Foreign Policy Council
Heather Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; Director, Europe
Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ambassador John
Herbst
Director, Eurasia Center
Atlantic Council
Dr. Donald N. Jensen
Editor in Chief, Senior Fellow
Center for European Policy Analysis
Moderated by
Myroslava
Gongadze
Chief
Ukrainian Service, Voice of America
Special Remarks
The Hon. Ron Johnson
US Senator for Wisconsin
Panel: What can be done to ensure Ukraine succeeds?
Luke Coffey
Director, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy, Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy
The Heritage Foundation
Glen Howard
President
The Jamestown Foundation
Jonathan Katz
Senior Fellow
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Dr. Alina
Polyakova
Director, Project on Global Democracy and Emerging Technologies
The Brookings Institution
Dr. Paul Stronski
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderated by
Melinda
Haring
Deputy Director, Eurasia Center
Atlantic Council
Global Partnerships to Combat Cybercrime & the Challenge of Going Dark | December 5, 2019 | 2:30 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Digital technologies are creating new challenges for law enforcement agencies around the world. Cybercrime is proliferating due to the growing sophistication of online criminal networks and the difficulties of trans-national enforcement. Investigations of traditional crimes are also becoming more difficult as encryption, ephemerality, and other technical measures create obstacles for accessing digital evidence. This event will examine how global cooperation can help to address these issues in a way that ensures a balance between the protection of civil liberties and the needs of the law enforcement community.
Agenda
2:15 pm – Registration
2:30 pm – Keynote
Ferdinand Grapperhaus, Dutch Minister of Justice and Security
2:50 pm – Moderated Panel Discussion
Theo van der Plas, Chief Superintendent, Deputy Chief
Constable, National Program Director Cybercrime and Digitization
Jennifer Daskal, Professor and Faculty Director of the Tech, Law, Security
Program at American University Washington College of Law
Matthew Noyes, Director of Cyber Policy and Strategy at the U.S. Secret
Service
3:20 pm – Audience Q&A
3:50 pm – Closing Thoughts
4:00 pm – END
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Stevenson’s army, November 30
– What will happen when North Korea’s end-of-year deadline for talks expires?
-Is the Taliban really ready for concessions and especially a cease-fire?
– Who will take over In Iraq, now that the prime minister has resigned under pressure from the Grand Ayatollah?
– How significant is China’s threat to Australia?
– Who cares if the House has passed over 400 bills if few have been taken up in the Senate?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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