Stevenson’s army, November 30
– What will happen when North Korea’s end-of-year deadline for talks expires?
-Is the Taliban really ready for concessions and especially a cease-fire?
– Who will take over In Iraq, now that the prime minister has resigned under pressure from the Grand Ayatollah?
– How significant is China’s threat to Australia?
– Who cares if the House has passed over 400 bills if few have been taken up in the Senate?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 28
Happy Thanksgiving. Why wait? There’s lots of interesting news today.
The president signed the Hong Kong bills. Here’s a summary. And the second bill also signed.
The Chinese reaction, according to Politico:— @HuXijin_GT, a
closely watched reporter for a state-controlled Chinese newspaper:
“Based what I know, out of respect for President Trump, the US and its
people, China is considering to put the drafters of the Hong Kong Human
Rights and Democracy Act on the no-entry list, barring them from
entering Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Macao.”“Furious, China summons US ambassador over Hong Kong bills”:
“China reacted furiously Thursday to President Donald Trump’s signing
two bills aimed at supporting human rights in Hong Kong, summoning the
U.S. ambassador to protest and warning the move would undermine
cooperation with Washington. …
“Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng told U.S. Ambassador Terry Branstad that the move constituted ‘serious interference in China’s internal affairs and a serious violation of international law,’ a foreign ministry statement said.
Meanwhile, note how China has expanded its diplomatic capabilities.
The administration wants to cut US contributions to NATO
It gives jobs to dissenters
And I agree with CSIS argument against moving foreign economic policy outside the NSC.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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US responsibilities in Syrian Kurdistan
On November 20, 2019, the Washington Kurdish Institute held an event at the Russell Senate Office entitled, Repairing the Damage: The future of US relations with our Syrian Kurdish and the fight against ISIS. Following the Turkish offensive into northeastern Syria, Operation Peace Spring, nearly 300,000 Syrians have been displaced and more than 700 have been killed. The anti-ISIS campaign has been put at risk, including the potential escape of ISIS prisoners held in Syrian Democratic Force camps. The event proceeded with three keynote speeches from Senator Chris Von Hollen, Senator Marsha Blackburn, and Senator Mark Warner. All three advocated for bipartisan support for the Syrian Kurds, condemned the actions of Turkey, and warned the audience about the reemergence of ISIS.
Following the remarks from the senators, a panel discussion began. The three panelists were Ilham Ahmed, President of the Syrian Democratic Council, Amy Austin Holmes, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center and Visiting Professor at Harvard University, and Aykan Erdemir, former Turkish parliament member and currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The panel was moderated by Najmaldin Karim, President of the Washington Kurdish Institute.
Ahmed started the discussion by advocating that the governance structure that the Kurds established was a model for Syria that included gender equality, representation for the diverse ethnic groups in SDF controlled areas, and an example of democracy that has been unfamiliar in Syria. She condemned Turkey and the Turkish backed jihadist groups that have violated human rights in the land they have occupied. Ahmed called for the cessation of the slaughter of Kurds and Syrians in general, and to allow for the Kurdish democratic project to continue. She recommended that the Turkish backed jihadist groups should be sanctioned and listed as official terrorist organizations.
Amir continued that discussion by stating that there are two sides of the story in Turkey. First, is the official one: 79% of Turks polled support Operation Peace Spring They regard the SDF, YPG, and PKK as terrorists and national security threats to Turkey. Another view holds that Operation Peace Spring is an offensive maneuver against the Kurds. It is Erdogan’s war as much as it is Turkey’s war. Similar to an article written by Dr. Gonul Tol, Director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies, Amir argued that President Erdogan has faced domestic political turmoil and used the October invasion to rally the population against a common threat, the Kurdish population along the Turkey-Syria border.
A younger Erdogan, Amir reminded, started talks with the PKK, transformed Turkish attitudes towards the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government, and established a joint Turkish-YPG operation to protect the grave of Suleyman Shah, an important cultural site in Syria under threat from ISIS, in 2015. Amir claimed that the present-day Erdogan would jail officials for attempting to pursue any similar initiatives today.
Holmes reiterated the condemnation of human rights violations committed by Turkey and expressed her concern for the risk of ethnic cleansing in Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn like what was seen in Afrin. She recommended that the US establish a team on the ground monitoring abuses and war crimes as well as a fact-finding commission analyzing possible ties between the Turkish government and ISIS. She also called for international journalists and academics to be allowed to enter Afrin and report what they observe. Holmes stressed that a mechanism for border security must be established, but it cannot simply give Turkey strips of land. The Kurds represent 1/3 of the Syrian population and the US must pressure the UN to allow them to be included in the Constitutional Committee discussions in Geneva.
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Iraqi Kurdistan faces crisis in Iraq and Syria
The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq (KRG) named Safeen Dizayee as the new head of the KRG Department of Foreign in Relations in July 2019. Prior to becoming Iraqi Kurdistan’s top diplomat, he served as chief of staff to the prime minister, senior KRG spokesperson, and minister of education, among other posts. On November 20, 2019, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) hosted Minister Dizayee for a discussion moderated by Dr. Bilal Wahab, the Nathan and Esther K. Wagner fellow at WINEP.
Dizayee discussed the ongoing protests and instability reverberating throughout Iraq. Civil unrest has not been uncommon in post-Saddam Iraq. The current widespread protests are a culmination of 16 years of corruption and other problems within the government. From 1999 to 2003, Iraqi Kurdistan was independent of the Ba’athist government, but voluntarily joined the new democratic-federalist government after Saddam Hussein was overthrown. The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq (KRG) is now an autonomous region and is supporting and working with Baghdad to address the grievances of the protesters.
Iraq needs to be changes in the patronage system, reforms to lower corruption, improvements to the provision of services, but the protests must remain peaceful to reach these goals in a progressive and stable way. As for the potential role of the US, the foreign minister noted that the US has no leverage in the protests and the next head of government will likely be less friendly to the West.
ISIS has regrouped and its militants are active almost daily in Iraq. Dizayee discussed how sleeper cells in many villages have emerged and gained support of locals either voluntarily or by threatening communities. They are mainly active in empty, ungoverned spaces near the Syrian-Iraqi border that the Iraqi government did not move into after the official fall of the Caliphate. ISIS has filled that vacuum and operates primarily at night, when their people are less prone to strikes.
Since the attempted independence referendum in 2017, the KRG has addressed structural flaws between the two Kurdish political parties as well as relations with the Iraqi, Iranian, and Turkish governments. Dizayee discussed how political parties have their own peshmerga forces. The KRG is doing the groundwork now to address the differences between the parties, but the parties and their peshmergas are all loyal to Kurdistan despite disagreements on governance.
Dizayee talked in the end about Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava) and the recent Turkish invasion. The Kurds in Syria have faced human rights violations for many decades and did not have the opportunity to influence the country until the beginning of the civil war in 2011. The KRG supported the unification of Kurdish political parties in Syria, but Dizayee said that the PYD ultimately has governed Rojava alone. Looking through a Turkish lens, he discussed how the PKK attempting to impose their agenda in Syria scared Ankara and encouraged the Turks to pursue offensive campaigns to protect Turkish national security.
However, extremist groups spearheaded the October incursion into northeastern Syria and acted in heinous ways against the population. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced and most of them will try to find refuge in KRG-controlled Iraq. 16,000 people have already fled to the Iraqi border, adding to the 250,000 refugees who began arriving in 2011.
On the US decision to withdraw troops from northeastern Syria, Dizayee said the YPG was used as a security company to defeat ISIS, and now that the job is perceived to be done, he is not surprised that support was withdrawn. He nevertheless appreciates the support of the US government overall to the Kurdish people. The lack of clear policy from the current administration will not ruin that relationship in the long run.
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Stevenson’s army, November 24
– There is now bipartisan agreement on the 302(b) allocations, so each appropriations subcommittee has a topline for their conferencing.
– CRS has a new report on the legislative appropriations bill.
– Two longtime diplomats note how US presidents have regularly acquiesced in Israeli settlement expansion.
– The Post describes the parallel governments for US foreign policy.
– Politico says Trump does more governing from the residence than the Oval Office.
– Documents link SecState Pompeo even closer to Ukraine policies.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 23
– We’ve talked in class about how presidential perks are part of the chief executive’s toolkit. WaPo has a story about how the White House is using Camp David as a venue for wooing Republicans.
-NYT says US intelligence briefings finger Russia as source of claims of Ukrainian influence in US elections.
-A Chinese defector to Australia details Chinese operations in Taiwan and Hong Kong.
– WSJ reports CFIUS has increased its investigations even before new law took effect.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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