Stevenson’s army, October 5
Bloomberg reports [sorry, there’s a limited paywall] that WH has ordered a “substantial” cut in the NSC staff. Article says current number is 310, but that includes support and Sit Room staff, since Congress has already limited professional staff to 200 by law. Goal is to limit leaks. Good luck.
Already leaking, former officials “horrified” by many presidential calls to foreign leaders. POTUS doesn’t follow the script.
Saudis and Iranians seem to be moving toward peace talks.
Spotlight on Sondland. The US Ambassador to EU inserted himself into Ukraine matters
In Brussels, Sondland garnered a reputation for his truculent manner and fondness for the trappings of privilege. He peppered closed-door negotiations with four-letter words. He carried a wireless buzzer into meetings at the U.S. Mission that enabled him to silently summon support staff to refill his teacup.
Sondland seemed to chafe at the constraints of his assignment. He traveled for meetings in Israel, Romania and other countries with little or no coordination with other officials. He acquired a reputation for being indiscreet, and was chastised for using his personal phone for state business, officials said.
Sondland also shuttled repeatedly back to Washington, often seeking face time with Trump. When he couldn’t gain entry to the Oval Office, officials said, he would meet instead with White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, preferring someone closer to Trump’s inner circle than national security officials responsible for Europe.
“He always seemed to be in D.C.,” a former White House official said. “People would say, ‘Does he spend any time in Brussels?’ ”
Trump’s man
Sondland’s approach to the job was seen more as a source of irritation than trouble until May, when he moved to stake his claim to the U.S.-Ukraine relationship.
After Zelensky’s election, White House officials began making plans for who would take part in the U.S. delegation to attend Zelensky’s inauguration.
National security adviser John Bolton removed Sondland’s name from the list, only to see it reinserted, a clear indication that Bolton had been overruled by the Oval Office.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 4
Extra weekend reading: the Volker testimony to the House committees; the texts released by the House committee chairs.
The texts show a bureaucratic political game, as described in the first part of this Post column: twice Amb. Sondland, a political appointee who donated $1 million to the Trump inaugural committee, tries to cut off Amb. Taylor, the career official now acting ambassador [charge] in Kyiv, when Taylor raises the link between military aid and investigating the Bidens. But after Taylor raises the point a second time, Sondland very formally gets into the record “there is no quid pro quo.” You can read; you decide.
CJR has a good explanation of how hard this issue is for the news media.
I especially liked this section: The press, on the whole, does not consistently use language commensurate with overt wrongdoing. (The Times’s print headline this morning, calling Trump’s admission a “brash public move,” is a case in point; so was Jonathan Karl’s claim, on ABC, that “this is becoming less a question of what the president did than a debate over what is right and what is wrong.”) As journalists, we’ve been taught to believe that the biggest scandals are those that require intense, meticulous digging; as human beings, we’ve been taught to believe that no right-minded person would own up to wrongdoing in such a haphazard way. And so, as ever with Trump, we seek rationality in the irrational. The effect, as the Washington Post’s Ashley Parker wrote recently, is that “Trump’s penchant for reading the stage directions almost seems to inoculate him from the kind of political damage that would devastate other politicians….
When it comes to Trump and his media supporters, shamelessness and misinformation are two sides of the same coin. The more shameless Trump is, the less we can see the boundaries between right and wrong, between believable and unbelievable. If you’ll say anything, nothing is implausible, which, in turn, makes a wild conspiracy sound just as plausible as the truth. Someday, the house of cards might collapse. But not today.
Yesterday I noted the pro-oil decision that angered farmers. Today the administration made a pro-farmer announcement on ethanol.
So far only CNN seems to have the story that Trump told Xi in June that he would go easy on Hong Kong while the trade talks continued.
Earlier this week, I noted that NYT said the administration actually did a cost estimate on Trump’s suggestion of a border moat filled with snakes and alligators. We haven’t seen that estimate. Maybe it’s on the supersecret WH server. But Peter Singer, tongue in cheek, has his own estimate, roughly $2.5 billion in set-up costs, plus annual operating costs of $1.8 billion.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bizarre
I got into the office this morning to find this in my email:
President Donald J. Trump Announces Intent to Appoint Individual to a Key Administration Post
President Donald J. Trump today announced his intent to appoint the following individual to a key position in his Administration:
Richard Grenell of California to serve concurrently as Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Federal Republic of Germany.
That, plus multiple requests to comment from outlets that broadcast in the Balkans.
So I’ll try to do that here: it’s bizarre. I had assumed that the recent appointment of Matt Palmer as Special Representative for the Balkans, if it did anything, ensured that no one else would get the job of resolving the remaining issues between Kosovo and Serbia as well as within Bosnia and Herzegovina. Now the Administration has chosen to name in addition a controversial political figure who has managed to deeply offend Berlin, one of America’s most important allies, to handle the sensitive issues in the Belgrade/Pristina talks.
What does that signify?
To me, it communicates confusion and disorder in US policy, not the clarity of purpose and desire to cooperate with the European Union that is required. What might the relationship between Palmer and Grenell be? I don’t know. Political appointee Grenell clearly outranks professional diplomat Palmer because he has an ambassadorial title (never mind he is presumably closer to the White House), but if one has the Balkans and the other has the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue, the logical chain of command would be the opposite.
In short: this is an appointment likely to cause even more uncertainty about US policy than already prevails. I suggest the press try to get Palmer and Grenell to clarify. Not me.
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Peace Picks | October 7 – 11
A Vision for the Future of Missile Defense | October 7, 2019 | 9:30 am – 12:00 pm | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The CSIS Missile Defense Project is pleased to welcome Vice Admiral Jon Hill, Director of the Missile Defense Agency, to speak on his vision and intent for the Agency. An industry panel will follow his remarks.
Event Schedule
9:30-10:30 Conversation between VADM Jon Hill and Dr. Tom Karako, Director, Missile Defense Project.
10:30-10:40 Coffee break
10:40-12:00 Panel discussion featuring Sarah
Reeves, Vice President of Missile Defense Programs, Lockheed Martin
Space, John Schumacher, Vice President, Washington Operations,
Aerojet Rocketdyne, Paul Smith, Vice President and Program
Director of GMD, Boeing, Dr. Mitch Stevison, Vice President,
Raytheon Missile Systems, and Brig. Gen. Kenn Todorov (USAF, ret.), Vice
President of Missile Defense Solutions, Northrop Grumman Corporation.
More than a Wallet: The Role of the Private Sector in Development | October 7, 2019 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The international community predominately sees the private sector as the answer to the gap in financing for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but what other roles can the private sector play in development? Large multinational corporations have been operating in some of the most fragile contexts for years and could offer technical assistance to NGOs and aid agencies. The private sector also supplies 9 out of 10 jobs in developing countries and can help encourage foreign direct investment. Development agencies could also learn from the private sector’s longstanding and resilient value chains throughout emerging markets. This event will explore these topics and feature representatives from the U.S. government, multinational corporations, SMEs, and development practitioners.
FEATURING
CEO, CollaborateUp
Senior Vice President, Middle East and North Africa, Chemonics International
Senior Advisor, mClinica
Private Sector Engagement Coordinator, USAID
New Strategic Visions and Power Competition in the Middle East |October 8, 2019 | 9:00 am | Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
In collaboration with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the conference will discuss new strategic visions and power competition in the Middle East. The event is organized within the framework of the fifth edition of MED – Rome Mediterranean Dialogues, which will take place later this year in Rome.
The growing power of China and the renewed assertiveness of Russia seem to be a prelude to a new phase of depreciation of Western impact on the rest of the world, if not the opening of a great competition for the redistribution of power and international status. In the context of this global reassessment, the configuration of regional orders has come into question, illustrated by the current collapse of the Middle Eastern order. The idea of a “Russian resurgence’” in the Middle East set against an American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike and warrants further examination of renewed power competition in the region.
We hope you will join us for this important event, which will also mark the release of a new collected volume, “The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition,” edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli.
9:00 a.m. Introductory remarks
Amb. Giampiero Massolo
President
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
H.E. Armando Varicchio
Ambassador
Embassy of Italy to the United States
9:30 a.m. Update on current US strategy toward the region
Mr. David Schenker
Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
10:15 a.m. Transatlantic foreign policy in the MENA region
Amb. Barbara Leaf
Senior Fellow
The Washington Institute
Dr. Haizam Amirah-Fernández
Senior Analyst
Elcano Royal Institute
Mr. William Wechsler
Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs
Atlantic Council
11:40 a.m. New policies for old actors: Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey
Dr. Jon Alterman
Director, Middle East Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Dr. Mark N. Katz
Nonresident Senior Fellow
Atlantic Council
Dr. Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
Research Fellow
Royal United Services Institute
Dr. Gönül Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies
Middle East Institute
1:00 p.m. Lunch Served
1:20 – 2:30 p.m. Keynote Address: A new strategic vision for the United States
Gen. Joseph Votel
Former Commander
US Central Command (CENTCOM)
Moderators
Dr. Karim Mezran
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
Dr. Arturo Varvelli
Senior Research Fellow and Co-Head, Middle East and North Africa Center
ISPI
The Global Challenge of Political Polarization | October 8, 2019 | 12:15 pm – 1:45 pm | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Political polarization is tearing at the seams of democracies around the world, from Bangladesh, Brazil, and India, to Poland, Turkey, and the United States. Why is polarization coming to a boil in so many different places at once? Is polarization similar everywhere or marked by substantial differences? How can severely divided democracies restore at least some national political consensus? Are there relevant lessons for the United States from polarized democracies elsewhere? Thomas Carothers will address these questions, drawing on the new book he has co-edited with Andrew O’Donohue, Democracies Divided: The Global Challenge of Political Polarization. Anne Applebaum, Naomi Hossain, and Sarah Yerkes will provide in-depth perspectives on key country cases.
THOMAS CAROTHERS
Thomas Carothers is senior vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In that capacity he oversees all of the research programs at Carnegie. He also directs the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and carries out research and writing on democracy-related issues.
ANNE APPLEBAUM
Anne Applebaum is a columnist for the Washington Post and a Pulitzer-prize winning historian. She is also a senior fellow at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
NAOMI HOSSAIN
Naomi Hossain is a political sociologist at the Institute of Development Studies, Sussex, currently based at the Accountability Research Center at American University. She is the author of The Aid Lab: Understanding Bangladesh’s Unexpected Success.
SARAH YERKES
Sarah Yerkes is a fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.
CARLOS LOZADA
Carlos Lozada is the nonfiction book
critic of the Washington Post and a Carnegie Endowment visiting
scholar. He is also an adjunct professor of political journalism with the
University of Notre Dame’s Washington program.
Trade, Development, and Security: A Discussion on the Potential of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | Middle East Institute, 1763 N St. NW Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host an event addressing the possibility of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement within the wider context of Egyptian development, economy, and security. A US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement has been under discussion, on and off, for the better part of two decades. A new report launched by MEI, “Trade, Reform and Revitalization: Towards a Free Trade Agreement,” finds that a free trade agreement would be mutually beneficial, but its success will depend on the adoption of the kind of reforms integral to the growth of Egypt’s economy. Without vibrant growth, powered by an active private sector, Egypt’s economy may falter, affecting its political and economic stability and security.
To address this topic, CEO of the AmCham Egypt Inc in
Egypt Hisham Fahmy will be accompanied by Deborah Lehr,
CEO of Basilinna, and Mirette F. Mabrouk, the director of MEI’s
Egypt Studies program. Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s senior
Vice President, will moderate the discussion.
Belt and Road in Latin America: Where does the future lie? | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am| 1030 15th St NW 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20005 | Register Here
Over the past six years, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded across the globe, drawing varied reactions ranging from full-on support to deep-running skepticism. Latin America and the Caribbean, long considered peripheral to the BRI, is increasingly engaging with the initiative – 19 countries have already signed on. As BRI continues to evolve, what are some new areas and trends to watch? What are the implications of BRI for regional governments and the business community? In what ways could BRI affect the United States and its interests?
Join the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center on Wednesday, October 9, 2019, from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. (EDT) for a high-level conversation on the BRI in Latin America and its implications for the region.
*Speakers to be Announced*
By, With, and Through: A Closer Look at CENTCOM’s Approach in the Middle East | October 10, 2019 | 12:30 pm – 2:00 pm | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The effective prosecution of America’s new global priority of competing with China and Russia requires the reallocation of U.S. military resources from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere. This in turn places a higher premium on U.S. security cooperation with partners in the Middle East.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)’s “By, With, and Through” approach can help further the goals of security cooperation and specifically develop closer ties with partner forces in the region. But is it working? And if it isn’t, what are the main challenges both at home and abroad, and what will it take to generate better results?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to convene a
panel of experts to reflect on this subject. Bilal Y. Saab, MEI’s Senior
Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program, will discuss some of
the key findings of an upcoming publication in the 2019 Fall issue of The
Washington Quarterly entitled, “Broken Partnerships: Can Washington
Get Security Cooperation Right?.” He will be joined by General Joseph
Votel, former CENTCOM Commander and currently a nonresident distinguished
senior fellow at MEI; Dana Stroul, senior fellow in The Washington
Institute’s Beth and David Geduld Program on Arab Politics; and Kenneth
Pollack, author of Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab
Military Effectiveness and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute. The conversation will be moderated by Eric Schmitt of
the New York Times.
Elections, Peace Talks, and U.S. Policy: What’s Next for Afghanistan? | October 10, 2019 |1:00 pm — 2:30 pm | One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004 6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here
Eighteen years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, the country is not only still at war—it is also in a state of flux. Its political future is uncertain, with the final results of a September 28 presidential election not expected until November. The fate of a fledgling peace and reconciliation process has been unclear since U.S. President Donald Trump called off talks with the Taliban. The direction of U.S. policy, and particularly the future American military presence, is also a major question. This event will take stock of Afghanistan’s various challenges amid so much uncertainty; discuss what we can expect to see in the coming weeks and months; and consider the best—and worst—ways forward for Kabul and Washington.
Speakers
Independent Consultant
Director, Center for Stability and Development, CNA Corporation
Journalist and TV Host, Voice of America
Senior Program Officer for Afghanistan, U.S. Institute of Peace
Social Activist and Co-Founder, Her Afghanistan
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Stevenson’s army, October 2
Not just here. Look at Peru, where the president dismissed the congress and then was impeached. Not sure who is in charge.
Daily Beast says Pompeo ousted Volker in self-defense. Reports say Volker is still slated to give testimony tomorrow.
Time has good history of US whistleblower laws: first one was in 1778!
NYT explains different NSC computer systems.
NYT details how officials work to respond to presidential whims — at one point last spring even doing a cost estimate of Trump’s demand for a border moat filled with snakes and alligators.
DOD has created a special China office; good pros and cons about such a move.
Crisis group head warns of war in the Middle East.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 30 and October 1
I had trouble posting from home yesterday, so here are Charlie Stevenson’s news summaries for today and yesterday:
October 1
Happy New Year! [FY2020]
US News argues that the military have increasing dominance over DOD civilians. I share those concerns.
FP has a review of two new memoirs, by Samantha Power and Susan Rice.
Picking up on John Bolton’s sharp criticism of North Korea policy, John Gans notes the parallels with Al Haig, fired by Reagan.
September 30
Why did special envoy Volker resign? Politico has some background.
Will Trump actually block Chinese from Wall Street?
Double standard? Why does NYTimes seem to care more about hiding identity of a leaker than of a whistleblower who followed the law?
Is it that easy to hack US voting machines? The scary report.
How to mitigate the effects of tariffs? Sen. Cotton has another deviously clever idea.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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