Bizarre
I got into the office this morning to find this in my email:
President Donald J. Trump Announces Intent to Appoint Individual to a Key Administration Post
President Donald J. Trump today announced his intent to appoint the following individual to a key position in his Administration:
Richard Grenell of California to serve concurrently as Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Federal Republic of Germany.
That, plus multiple requests to comment from outlets that broadcast in the Balkans.
So I’ll try to do that here: it’s bizarre. I had assumed that the recent appointment of Matt Palmer as Special Representative for the Balkans, if it did anything, ensured that no one else would get the job of resolving the remaining issues between Kosovo and Serbia as well as within Bosnia and Herzegovina. Now the Administration has chosen to name in addition a controversial political figure who has managed to deeply offend Berlin, one of America’s most important allies, to handle the sensitive issues in the Belgrade/Pristina talks.
What does that signify?
To me, it communicates confusion and disorder in US policy, not the clarity of purpose and desire to cooperate with the European Union that is required. What might the relationship between Palmer and Grenell be? I don’t know. Political appointee Grenell clearly outranks professional diplomat Palmer because he has an ambassadorial title (never mind he is presumably closer to the White House), but if one has the Balkans and the other has the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue, the logical chain of command would be the opposite.
In short: this is an appointment likely to cause even more uncertainty about US policy than already prevails. I suggest the press try to get Palmer and Grenell to clarify. Not me.
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Peace Picks | October 7 – 11
A Vision for the Future of Missile Defense | October 7, 2019 | 9:30 am – 12:00 pm | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The CSIS Missile Defense Project is pleased to welcome Vice Admiral Jon Hill, Director of the Missile Defense Agency, to speak on his vision and intent for the Agency. An industry panel will follow his remarks.
Event Schedule
9:30-10:30 Conversation between VADM Jon Hill and Dr. Tom Karako, Director, Missile Defense Project.
10:30-10:40 Coffee break
10:40-12:00 Panel discussion featuring Sarah
Reeves, Vice President of Missile Defense Programs, Lockheed Martin
Space, John Schumacher, Vice President, Washington Operations,
Aerojet Rocketdyne, Paul Smith, Vice President and Program
Director of GMD, Boeing, Dr. Mitch Stevison, Vice President,
Raytheon Missile Systems, and Brig. Gen. Kenn Todorov (USAF, ret.), Vice
President of Missile Defense Solutions, Northrop Grumman Corporation.
More than a Wallet: The Role of the Private Sector in Development | October 7, 2019 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The international community predominately sees the private sector as the answer to the gap in financing for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but what other roles can the private sector play in development? Large multinational corporations have been operating in some of the most fragile contexts for years and could offer technical assistance to NGOs and aid agencies. The private sector also supplies 9 out of 10 jobs in developing countries and can help encourage foreign direct investment. Development agencies could also learn from the private sector’s longstanding and resilient value chains throughout emerging markets. This event will explore these topics and feature representatives from the U.S. government, multinational corporations, SMEs, and development practitioners.
FEATURING
CEO, CollaborateUp
Senior Vice President, Middle East and North Africa, Chemonics International
Senior Advisor, mClinica
Private Sector Engagement Coordinator, USAID
New Strategic Visions and Power Competition in the Middle East |October 8, 2019 | 9:00 am | Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
In collaboration with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the conference will discuss new strategic visions and power competition in the Middle East. The event is organized within the framework of the fifth edition of MED – Rome Mediterranean Dialogues, which will take place later this year in Rome.
The growing power of China and the renewed assertiveness of Russia seem to be a prelude to a new phase of depreciation of Western impact on the rest of the world, if not the opening of a great competition for the redistribution of power and international status. In the context of this global reassessment, the configuration of regional orders has come into question, illustrated by the current collapse of the Middle Eastern order. The idea of a “Russian resurgence’” in the Middle East set against an American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike and warrants further examination of renewed power competition in the region.
We hope you will join us for this important event, which will also mark the release of a new collected volume, “The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition,” edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli.
9:00 a.m. Introductory remarks
Amb. Giampiero Massolo
President
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
H.E. Armando Varicchio
Ambassador
Embassy of Italy to the United States
9:30 a.m. Update on current US strategy toward the region
Mr. David Schenker
Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
10:15 a.m. Transatlantic foreign policy in the MENA region
Amb. Barbara Leaf
Senior Fellow
The Washington Institute
Dr. Haizam Amirah-Fernández
Senior Analyst
Elcano Royal Institute
Mr. William Wechsler
Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs
Atlantic Council
11:40 a.m. New policies for old actors: Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey
Dr. Jon Alterman
Director, Middle East Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Dr. Mark N. Katz
Nonresident Senior Fellow
Atlantic Council
Dr. Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
Research Fellow
Royal United Services Institute
Dr. Gönül Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies
Middle East Institute
1:00 p.m. Lunch Served
1:20 – 2:30 p.m. Keynote Address: A new strategic vision for the United States
Gen. Joseph Votel
Former Commander
US Central Command (CENTCOM)
Moderators
Dr. Karim Mezran
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
Dr. Arturo Varvelli
Senior Research Fellow and Co-Head, Middle East and North Africa Center
ISPI
The Global Challenge of Political Polarization | October 8, 2019 | 12:15 pm – 1:45 pm | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Political polarization is tearing at the seams of democracies around the world, from Bangladesh, Brazil, and India, to Poland, Turkey, and the United States. Why is polarization coming to a boil in so many different places at once? Is polarization similar everywhere or marked by substantial differences? How can severely divided democracies restore at least some national political consensus? Are there relevant lessons for the United States from polarized democracies elsewhere? Thomas Carothers will address these questions, drawing on the new book he has co-edited with Andrew O’Donohue, Democracies Divided: The Global Challenge of Political Polarization. Anne Applebaum, Naomi Hossain, and Sarah Yerkes will provide in-depth perspectives on key country cases.
THOMAS CAROTHERS
Thomas Carothers is senior vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In that capacity he oversees all of the research programs at Carnegie. He also directs the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and carries out research and writing on democracy-related issues.
ANNE APPLEBAUM
Anne Applebaum is a columnist for the Washington Post and a Pulitzer-prize winning historian. She is also a senior fellow at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
NAOMI HOSSAIN
Naomi Hossain is a political sociologist at the Institute of Development Studies, Sussex, currently based at the Accountability Research Center at American University. She is the author of The Aid Lab: Understanding Bangladesh’s Unexpected Success.
SARAH YERKES
Sarah Yerkes is a fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.
CARLOS LOZADA
Carlos Lozada is the nonfiction book
critic of the Washington Post and a Carnegie Endowment visiting
scholar. He is also an adjunct professor of political journalism with the
University of Notre Dame’s Washington program.
Trade, Development, and Security: A Discussion on the Potential of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | Middle East Institute, 1763 N St. NW Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host an event addressing the possibility of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement within the wider context of Egyptian development, economy, and security. A US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement has been under discussion, on and off, for the better part of two decades. A new report launched by MEI, “Trade, Reform and Revitalization: Towards a Free Trade Agreement,” finds that a free trade agreement would be mutually beneficial, but its success will depend on the adoption of the kind of reforms integral to the growth of Egypt’s economy. Without vibrant growth, powered by an active private sector, Egypt’s economy may falter, affecting its political and economic stability and security.
To address this topic, CEO of the AmCham Egypt Inc in
Egypt Hisham Fahmy will be accompanied by Deborah Lehr,
CEO of Basilinna, and Mirette F. Mabrouk, the director of MEI’s
Egypt Studies program. Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s senior
Vice President, will moderate the discussion.
Belt and Road in Latin America: Where does the future lie? | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am| 1030 15th St NW 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20005 | Register Here
Over the past six years, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded across the globe, drawing varied reactions ranging from full-on support to deep-running skepticism. Latin America and the Caribbean, long considered peripheral to the BRI, is increasingly engaging with the initiative – 19 countries have already signed on. As BRI continues to evolve, what are some new areas and trends to watch? What are the implications of BRI for regional governments and the business community? In what ways could BRI affect the United States and its interests?
Join the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center on Wednesday, October 9, 2019, from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. (EDT) for a high-level conversation on the BRI in Latin America and its implications for the region.
*Speakers to be Announced*
By, With, and Through: A Closer Look at CENTCOM’s Approach in the Middle East | October 10, 2019 | 12:30 pm – 2:00 pm | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The effective prosecution of America’s new global priority of competing with China and Russia requires the reallocation of U.S. military resources from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere. This in turn places a higher premium on U.S. security cooperation with partners in the Middle East.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)’s “By, With, and Through” approach can help further the goals of security cooperation and specifically develop closer ties with partner forces in the region. But is it working? And if it isn’t, what are the main challenges both at home and abroad, and what will it take to generate better results?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to convene a
panel of experts to reflect on this subject. Bilal Y. Saab, MEI’s Senior
Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program, will discuss some of
the key findings of an upcoming publication in the 2019 Fall issue of The
Washington Quarterly entitled, “Broken Partnerships: Can Washington
Get Security Cooperation Right?.” He will be joined by General Joseph
Votel, former CENTCOM Commander and currently a nonresident distinguished
senior fellow at MEI; Dana Stroul, senior fellow in The Washington
Institute’s Beth and David Geduld Program on Arab Politics; and Kenneth
Pollack, author of Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab
Military Effectiveness and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute. The conversation will be moderated by Eric Schmitt of
the New York Times.
Elections, Peace Talks, and U.S. Policy: What’s Next for Afghanistan? | October 10, 2019 |1:00 pm — 2:30 pm | One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004 6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here
Eighteen years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, the country is not only still at war—it is also in a state of flux. Its political future is uncertain, with the final results of a September 28 presidential election not expected until November. The fate of a fledgling peace and reconciliation process has been unclear since U.S. President Donald Trump called off talks with the Taliban. The direction of U.S. policy, and particularly the future American military presence, is also a major question. This event will take stock of Afghanistan’s various challenges amid so much uncertainty; discuss what we can expect to see in the coming weeks and months; and consider the best—and worst—ways forward for Kabul and Washington.
Speakers
Independent Consultant
Director, Center for Stability and Development, CNA Corporation
Journalist and TV Host, Voice of America
Senior Program Officer for Afghanistan, U.S. Institute of Peace
Social Activist and Co-Founder, Her Afghanistan
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Stevenson’s army, October 2
Not just here. Look at Peru, where the president dismissed the congress and then was impeached. Not sure who is in charge.
Daily Beast says Pompeo ousted Volker in self-defense. Reports say Volker is still slated to give testimony tomorrow.
Time has good history of US whistleblower laws: first one was in 1778!
NYT explains different NSC computer systems.
NYT details how officials work to respond to presidential whims — at one point last spring even doing a cost estimate of Trump’s demand for a border moat filled with snakes and alligators.
DOD has created a special China office; good pros and cons about such a move.
Crisis group head warns of war in the Middle East.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 30 and October 1
I had trouble posting from home yesterday, so here are Charlie Stevenson’s news summaries for today and yesterday:
October 1
Happy New Year! [FY2020]
US News argues that the military have increasing dominance over DOD civilians. I share those concerns.
FP has a review of two new memoirs, by Samantha Power and Susan Rice.
Picking up on John Bolton’s sharp criticism of North Korea policy, John Gans notes the parallels with Al Haig, fired by Reagan.
September 30
Why did special envoy Volker resign? Politico has some background.
Will Trump actually block Chinese from Wall Street?
Double standard? Why does NYTimes seem to care more about hiding identity of a leaker than of a whistleblower who followed the law?
Is it that easy to hack US voting machines? The scary report.
How to mitigate the effects of tariffs? Sen. Cotton has another deviously clever idea.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks September 30-October 4
Reducing Threats and Building Stability|September 30, 2019|5:00PM-7:30PM|Middle East Institute|1763 N St. NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036|Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host an event in partnership with CARE addressing possibilities for reducing threats and building stability. To address these topics, Ambassador William Burns, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, will be interviewed by reporter Michelle Kosinski. The two will discuss Burns’ book The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal. Following Ambassador Burns’ presentation, former Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and former Under Secretary of Defense Michele Flournoy will continue the conversation on threat reduction and stabilization, moderated by MEI President Paul Salem.
Ambassador William Burns is president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Michelle Kosinski is CNN’s senior diplomatic correspondent responsible for covering the State Department
Michèle Flournoy is CEO of WestExec Advisors and is the former CEO of CNAS, an organization she co-founded
Ernest Moniz is new chief executive officer and co-chair by the Board of Directors of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI)
Ernest Moniz is chief executive officer and co-chair by the Board of Directors of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI)
Paul Salem (moderator) is president of The Middle East Institute. He focuses on issues of political change, transition, and conflict as well as the regional and international relations of the Middle East
The Struggle for Inclusive Citizenship in Arab Countries|October 1, 2019|2:00PM|Atlantic Council|1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC 20005|Register Here
The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and the United Nations Development Programme invite you to a presentation previewing the forthcoming 2019 Arab Human Development Report, followed by a panel discussion. The report will focus on the struggle for citizenship in all its dimensions in Arab countries. Dr. Adel Abdellatif, Senior Strategic Advisor at the Regional Bureau for Arab States, and Paola Pagliani, Policy Specialist from the United Nations Development Programme will present the conceptual framework for the forthcoming report (briefly outlined in this research paper) and preview some of the preliminary results of surveys conducted in twelve Arab countries.
Since the 2011 uprisings, Arab countries have struggled to define a new social contract that would insulate their citizens from forces of exclusion—forces that range from poverty, inequality and unemployment to water scarcity, corruption and gender discrimination. In some cases, reforms and policies aiming at modernization have, as an unintended consequence, generated greater inequality rather than greater inclusion. In other cases, exclusion has fueled societal tensions, instability and ultimately violence, putting people at greater risk of marginalization. If ongoing conflicts are not resolved and demographic projections do not deviate from current trends, 40 percent of people in Arab countries will live in crisis and conflict conditions by 2030.
Presenters
Dr. Adel Abdellatif
Senior Strategic Advisor, Regional Bureau for Arab States
United Nations Development Programme
Ms. Paola Pagliani
Policy Specialist
United Nations Development Programme
Discussants
Dr. Amaney A. Jamal
Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Politics
Princeton University
Dr. James Zogby
Managing Director
Zogby Research Services
Moderator
Ambassador Richard LeBaron
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
The Kashmir Crisis: A Discussion with President Masood Khan|October 1, 2019|12:30PM-2:00PM|Middle East Institute|1763 N St. NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036|Register Here
On August 5, 2019, India stripped the special status of Kashmir and absorbed the state into the Indian Union. Prime Minister Modi’s decision and the imposition of a communications blackout and strict curfew was denounced in Pakistan and questioned elsewhere. For decades, Pakistan has been trying to draw international attention to legal and human rights issues in Kashmir. The actions of the prime minister have now forced Kashmir on to the world stage and India into a defensive role. Thus far, however, the reactions of major regional and global powers have been muted. Pakistan remains determined to sustain Kashmir’s high profile by pointing out new humanitarian concerns and the growing danger of armed, possibly nuclear conflict.
Masood Khan is a Pakistani diplomat who serves as the 27th President of Pakistan administered Kashmir
Raza Rumi is the president of INDUS-Moblizing People’s Power, a Washington D.C. based Non Profit research organization
Marvin Weinbaum (moderator) is the director for Afghanistan and Pakistan studies at MEI
Venezuela: From UNGA Commitments to a Global Action Plan|October 2, 2019|1:00PM|Atlantic Council|1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC 20005|Register Here
Venezuela is front-and-center at the United Nations annual meetings in New York. On Monday, in a significant step, governments party to the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR) overwhelmingly voted to invoke it. But what happens if inaction settles in post-UNGA? What is clear is that a deepening of the crisis would trigger new, even more concerning reverberations across Latin America, the Caribbean, the United States, Europe, and beyond.
To seize the moment for renewed attention to the rapidly-deteriorating situation in Venezuela, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, in partnership with Foreign Policy Magazine and Florida International University’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, invite you to a post-UNGA discussion on how the international community is likely to coordinate a global action plan to avert further threats to regional and global stability.
Speakers
Luis Guillermo Solís
Former President
Republic of Costa Rica
Amb. Marcel de Vink
Director of Western Hemisphere Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Kingdom of the Netherlands
**Additional speakers to be announced.
Oil, Money, and U.S.-Saudi Relations Since 1954|October 2, 2019|2:00PM-3:30PM|Middle East Institute|1763 N St. NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036|Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a book talk with Thomas Lippman to launch his new book, Crude Oil, Crude Money: AristotleOnassis, Saudi Arabia, and the CIA. In conversation with MEI Senior Vice President Gerald Feierstein, Lippman will delve into 70 years of economic and strategic partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia, examining the ways in which this long standing relationship has withstood deep disagreements and disputes. The talk will focus on the circumstances surrounding King Saud’s agreement with Aristotle Onassis in 1954 for a shipping contract which would affect American business in the kingdom, as well as the Eisenhower administration’s reaction.
Thomas W. Lippman is an award-winning author and journalist who has written about Middle Eastern affairs and American foreign policy for more than three decades, specializing in Saudi Arabian affairs, U.S.- Saudi relations, and relations between the West and Islam
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein is senior vice president at MEI. He retired from the U.S. Foreign Service in May 2016 after a 41-year career with the personal rank of Career Minister
Venezuela’s Water Crisis and the Path Forward|October 3, 2019|8:30AM-2:00PM|Center for Strategic and International Studies|1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Please join CSIS Americas and Future of Venezuela Initiative in collaboration with Plan País for a conference on the water crisis in Venezuela affecting citizen access to drinking water, farmer’s access to irrigated land, and the water management system of the country. Venezuela’s water system is currently facing a number of critical issues and a clear path forward is needed to address the country’s water crisis in the short term and to identify a roadmap for longer term structural reforms addressing all aspects of the national water management system.
The purpose of this conference is to analyze the current threats endangering the nation’s watersheds, the capacity of the water management system to protect the nation’s water resources, and the conditions of multiple entities responsible for assuring access to safe and clean water throughout the country.
Keynote remarks will be provided by Bonnie Glick, Deputy Administrator for USAID. The first panel will cover the diagnostics of the water crisis in Venezuela. The second panel will cover solutions and action plans to help the country rebuild its water management system. Panelists will include Venezuela-based Plan País experts, as well as experts on water management systems from U.S.-based institutions.
This event will take place in both English and Spanish. Simultaneous translation will be available.
Conference Agenda:
8:30 AM – Coffee and Guest Arrivals
9:00 AM – Event Begins
9:10 AM – Keynote Remarks
9:20 AM – Introductory Remarks
9:40 AM – Panel #1: Diagnostic of Water Crisis
10:30 AM – Coffee Break
10:45 AM – Panel #2: Solutions and Action Plans
12:15 PM – Networking Lunch
2:00 PM – Conclusion
Speakers
Juan Andrés Mejía: President, Plan País Committee; Deputy, National Assembly of Venezuela
Bonnie Glick: Deputy Administrator of the US Agency for International Development
José María de Viana: Technical Coordinator for Public Services, Plan País
María Julia Bocco: Water and Sanitation Lead Economist, Inter-American Development Bank
Germán Uzcategui: Mechanical Engineer at the Universidad de los Andes; Adviser to the Executive Director for Eastern Production, PDVSA
Moises Rendon: Director, The Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow, Americas Program
Mark L. Schneider: Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Americas Program and Human Rights Initiative
Michael A. Matera: Director and Senior Fellow, Americas Program
Katherine Bliss: Senior Fellow, Global Health Policy Center
Security, Stability, and the Future of Kashmir|October 4, 2019|9:45AM-11:30AM|Hudson Institute|1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
Hudson Institute will host a discussion on recent developments in Kashmir. Panelists will include the Heritage Foundation’s Jeff Smith, Indian politician and writer Salman Anees Soz, and the Atlantic Council’s Shuja Nawaz. The discussion will be moderated by Aparna Pande, Hudson research fellow and director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia.
On August 5, India revoked the special status of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, dividing the one-time state into two union territories – Jammu and Kashmir as one territory and Ladakh as another. This ushered in security, administrative, and political issues both inside and outside India. Panelists will address these issues, including the domestic security implications of this decision by the Indian government, responses from the international community, and the implications for U.S. foreign policy in the region.
Speakers
Salman Anees Soz: Indian Politician and Author, The Great Disappointment: How Narendra Modi Squandered a Unique Opportunity to Transform the Indian Economy
Shuja Nawaz: Distinguished Fellow, South Asia Center; Former Director, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council
Aparna Pande: Research Fellow and Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia, Hudson Institute
Jeff Smith: Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation
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Accountability should not wait
On September 27, the Middle East Institute and the Pro-Justice jointly hosted a panel to launch the new book, Blacklist: Violations Committed by the Most Prominent Syrian Regime Figures and How to Bring Them to Justice. Blacklist identifies and provides detailed information on nearly 100 individuals accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria over the past eight years. The book sheds light on the crimes themselves and outlines potential political and judicial avenues available to bring the perpetrators to justice.
The panel consisted of Anne Barnard, a New York Times journalist who has extensively covered the conflict in Syria, Wael Sawah, the president and director of Pro-Justice and former executive director of the Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, and Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism program at MEI. The event was moderated by Joyce Karam, who is the Washington correspondent for The National and adjunct professor at George Washington University.
The Syrian conflict is approaching its ninth year and increasingly becoming forgotten by the international community. Lister gave a broad overview of wartime consequences to remind the panel and audience of the ongoing atrocity. Syria is a disastrous humanitarian crisis with roughly 500,000 deaths since 2011. The conflict has an extensive history of war crimes, most of which are perpetuated by the central government of Syria. The Assad regime is responsible for 89% of civilian deaths, 99% of torture deaths, 89% of arbitrary arrests, and 85% of forced displacements. Barnard noted that even before the conflict, there were high rates of detention in the elaborate prison system established throughout the Assad dynasty, but as the conflict escalated from 2011 onward, the situation worsened. The UN has labeled the prisons in Syria as exterminate conditions with a system of sadistic torture and high levels of disease.
Sawah continued by saying that these facts and figures are important to note because without accountability and justice, there will never be a lasting peace in Syria. He stated that Blacklist is an important publication to act as an open guide to identify the perpetuators and assist legal professionals in creating a foundational narrative to work towards holding those responsible of crimes against humanity. Barnard agreed and said that the industrial prison system has fostered the ability of the regime to commit these crimes. 100,000 Syrians have not been located after their time detained. It is important to work towards identifying the fates of these people to take initial steps towards reaching justice through administering accountability.
Lister discussed how legal accountability does not seem likely for Assad and high-ranking members of the regime because the general perception is that the Syrian conflict has been won by the regime. He notes that it is far from over, but in the short-term sanctions on these individuals can restrict their international travel and ability to act as legitimate statesmen. Doing so will isolate the regime and not allow it to operate with impunity.
Sawah talked about the pivotal role Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran have played in enabling the Assad regime to survive throughout the civil war. The regime would have collapsed by 2013 without their support. They must be held accountable for their support of Assad and their own war crimes. Lister echoed this by mentioning the Russian precision strikes on civilian hospitals in opposition-held regions. He suggested that the US needs to begin an investigation of Russian war crimes to develop a portfolio of reports to name and shame their heinous actions against Syrian civilians.
The panel agreed that continued investigations such as Blacklist are needed to reach a stable peace in the future. Without making accountability for injustices, opposition groups will flourish, and civilians will continue to disdain the regime.
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