He isn’t finished yet
Tonight, which has already begun in Cairo, and tomorrow will be a pivotal moment in Egypt’s history. Yesterday saw withdrawal of the police from population centers, to defensive (and very aggressively defended) positions around Interior Ministry and other regime pillars. The Army deployed with smiles and even protesters’ cheers, but did little or nothing to stop either protests or lawlessness, which some citizens tried to contain. Government agents did at least some of the looting and tire burning, in an apparent effort to give the regime an excuse to restore law and order.
That is likely what it will try to do, using as little force as possible in front of TV cameras. Al Jazeera has been closed down for the occasion. The demonstrators will need to show more nonviolent discipline than they have in recent days if they are to avoid a vicious crackdown supported by at least a large part of the population. Keeping the smiles on those soldiers’ faces is the trick that will bring down Mubarak, if he is to be brought down.
He is definitely not finished yet, despite the blogotwittersphere’s triumphant refrains, which are more wishful thinking than careful analysis. There is little sign that Mubarak has yet lost the crucial support of the police and army. His effort to forecast the election lights for his son is finished, and I have my doubts that yesterday’s appointment of Omar Suleiman as vice president will be the final word on succession. But there are many other people who can step in to save the day for the regime’s privileged few.
The path to democracy in Egypt is particularly fraught because it will require constitutional revision, something some the bloggers are beginning to fathom. Under the current constitution, a new president would have to pass muster in the current parliament, which is overwhelmingly under the control of Mubarak and his political party. Revising the constitution will be a lengthy process requiring–if democracy is to be the result–someone at the helm who will steer convincingly in the right direction. It is hard to picture that person emerging from the current parliament, which was elected in unfree and unfair elections last fall. It is full of Mubarak cronies.
Of course there are also extra-constitutional paths out of the current situation. An army seizure of power would not be outside Egyptian tradition, and if the disorder get worse a large part of the middle class might even welcome it. Even an army coup could lead in a democratic direction. Tunisia is at least in part embarked on an army-pushed forced march that seems to be headed towards competitive elections. Egypt might follow.
The difficult question is how much of the old regime needs to be dismantled to allow a new one to emerge relatively peacefully and easily. There is no universally applicable answer to that question–the demonstrators will decide, by either continuing their efforts or giving them up when they see credible moves in the direction they want. Egyptians wouldn’t be the first to get the answer wrong–remember the French Revolution?
So far though the protesters have clearly embodied the will of the people to take control and steer their country in directions more beneficial to larger numbers than has been the case in the last several decades. Mubarak is making a mistake not to listen to their voice, but his too is a mistake made often. Even if he doesn’t step down, the days of his regime are numbered, if only by his own longevity. What comes next will likely be profoundly different from what it might have been had these demonstrations not allowed Egyptians to taste liberation. Whatever happens in the short term, the long term belongs to the people.
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Even pharaoh knew when to let people go
While the U.S. may be trying to engineer a smooth transition, my guess is that Mubarak has something else in mind. His devotion to order was apparent in last night’s speech. He regards himself as essential to order. The appointment of intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice president seems far off the mark if the objective is reform. It is more likely a precursor of crackdown, at which he is experienced and successful, than a smooth transition. Ditto with the appointment of the Aviation Minister, Ahmed Shafiq, as prime minister. Unless there is a negotiated solution, the regime will be tempted to try, likely tonight and if not tomorrow, the kind of brutal dispersal of demonstrators that has worked in the past.
Will it work this time? I doubt it. Crowds in Cairo today stayed on good terms with at least some of the soldiers, many of whom are presumably conscripts and therefore less subject to command and control than the professionals, while the Interior Ministry seems to be a focal point of police violence and the main TV station is heavily guarded. The objective of the demonstrators has become increasingly into focus: they want Mubarak out. If the mid-ranking army officers are smart–and there is every reason to believe they are–they will be wondering whether they really want to crack skulls to save Mubarak, who in any event is starting to look like someone packing his bags. BBC is reporting that his two sons are already in London.
It is of course possible that Egypt will suffer a period of disorder, with or without Mubarak in place, providing opportunities for extremists to push the country in directions inimical to U.S., and most Egyptians’, interests. This would not be pretty and could veer in very dangerous directions.
But it is also possible that the constitution, which calls for new elections within 60 days of the president stepping down, will be respected (Article 84):
In case of the vacancy of the Presidential Office or the permanent disability of the President of the Republic, the President of the People’s Assembly shall temporarily assume the Presidency; and, if at that time, the People’s Assembly is dissolved, the President of the Supreme Constitutional Court shall take over the Presidency, however, on condition that neither one shall nominate himself for the Presidency. The People’s Assembly shall then proclaim the vacancy of the office of President. The President of the Republic shall be chosen within a maximum period of sixty days from the day of the vacancy of the Presidential Office.
This choice of the president is presumably done within the People’s Assembly, as provided for in Article 76.
It is hard to picture the demonstrators tolerating the choice of a new president by a parliament elected last fall in blatantly unfree and unfair elections, though I suppose they might accept if it is clear that the choice will be a transitional one, i.e. not Omar Suleiman or some other Mubarak appointee (former IAEA chief Mohamed El Baradei for example). But it is going to be hard to satisfy anyone seriously interested in democracy in Egypt within the current constitutional framework, which is tailored to suit the likes of Hosni Mubarak. Writing a new constitution will not be an easy, or quick, process.
In the meanwhile, lifting of the emergency law and formation of a government free of Mubarak’s military buddies would be the clearest signals that whoever is in charge is serious about moving ahead with democratic reform. We are not there yet, and we may never get there–if the crackdown is successful, something like the previous system might be restored, with or without Mubarak as president.
An NPR correspondent told what I would regard as a good Egyptian joke this morning. Informed by a speechwriter that his farewell address to the people was ready, Mubarak asks “why? are they going someplace?” Even pharaoh knew when to let the people go. In the modern version, the pharaoh leaves.
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Two presidents try to contain the damage
First an uninspired Mubarak, who promises ill-defined reforms and fires the government but sees no problems in the regime and only chaos in the demonstrations (someone sell him a teleprompter please!):
Then an almost animated Obama, who favors universal human rights, peaceful demonstrations and concrete reforms (he didn’t use a teleprompter either, but he is better at it!):
Nothing Mubarak said suggested to me that he understood what real reform meant, and quite a bit of it suggested a willingness to crack down. Obama did not sound as if he wanted to put up with another day like today, when the Egyptian security forces were clearly unleashed and encouraged to trash the demonstrators.
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Mubarak’s choice: step down or crack down
We’ll have to wait for more than one Ph.D. thesis before we understand all that has happened today in Egypt, but it seems clear that the police attacked quickly as worshipers left the mosques in Cairo and continued to do battle for most of the rest of the day. Demonstrators are reported to have welcomed the army this evening.
This is not surprising, and it may even be encouraging. If the demonstrators can convince the army to abandon the regime, we could see a lot of fast reform in Egypt. That is more or less the current situation in Tunisia–the army abandoned Ben Ali and is now saying that it will protect the reform process (pray that it does). The difference is that Egypt’s army has more privilege left to defend–it will not be easy to get them to abandon that, even if they abandon Mubarak.
In Alexandria, the demonstrators and police seem to have made their peace much earlier in the day, with at least some police refusing orders to use tear gas and to attack the protesters. This too is encouraging. Violence against the security forces plays into an autocrat’s hand, by enabling the use of force and depriving the demonstrators of at least some of their popular support.
Whatever the differences, one thing is clear everywhere: it’s about the regime. If Mubarak ever hoped to retire peacefully like Diocletian to his villa in Split, he seems to have missed the opportunity. Nor will he be able to easily pass the baton to his son, who is the day’s biggest loser. The Mubaraks have lost their best opportunities to make peace. The President faces a starker choice than yesterday: step down or crack down.
My guess is he will try crack down first. It has worked for him in the past. Washington, which as The Guardian says is wobbling on a tightrope, needs to get ready for one of the biggest foreign policy choices of our time: back Mubarak or go for change.
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Police riot in Cairo, refuse to do so in Alexandria
More later today. In the meanwhile, a bit of video that tells what you really need to know: it’s about the regime.
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If Friday prayers are answered, what happens next in Egypt?
Rashad Mahmood, my American friend living in Cairo, has kindly answered a few additional questions I posed: what would satisfy the demonstrators? If Mubarak were to agree to a seriously free and fair presidential poll, would that do it? Or do they want him gone right away? Then who takes over? What in other words is the next step? Rashad’s replies below:
While we won’t know for certain the direction things will take until the country-wide protests planned for Friday, it is clear that there are things that the government could do to get ahead of the demonstrators and try to defuse the situation. As Issandr at the Arabist blog notes however, Mubarak is known for his stubbornness and is unlikely to believe that the situation merits serious action until it is too late. On the other hand, he may have the right strategy, and by ignoring problems and letting the demonstrators tire, he will ride out the situation. The NDP steering committee recently met. Here is a report on their willingness to have a dialogue, but without specifics.
The optimal outcome would be something along these lines:
1. Announce repeal of the emergency law, effective immediately, or as soon as parliament can assemble to do it. This is one thing that literally every single Egyptian and member of the opposition can get behind. Then things get trickier.
2. A new national unity government. This was number one on the list of demands of the Wafd party issued on Wednesday. However, figuring who would be represented, and by how many, makes it seem problematic. Especially since the protests have mostly been driven by spontaneous networks of young Egyptians, who don’t have anyone to speak for them. Hence, it seems the least realistic.
3. The dissolution of parliament and a call for new elections. The Brotherhood called for this last week, and it seems there would be broad agreement among the opposition with the sentiment. This seems more doable. However, most of the protesters would be highly skeptical that this alone would solve anything, given the NDP stranglehold on politics.
4. Call a constitutional reform convention. Although this hasn’t gotten as much attention, it is essential if any real changes are to happen. If you looked up “strong presidency” in the dictionary of political science, you would see the Egyptian constitution sitting there staring back. Without a devolution of power to parliament, and reforms that allow parties to really compete for seats, nothing can be accomplished.
In some ways, Egypt is fortunate to have Tunisia as a model, because if a real revolution does come, they will be just a few weeks behind Tunisia dealing with almost all the same sticky political issues.
If Mubarak doesn’t pursue any of the above policies, and then is eventually forced out, that leaves a massive power vacuum with potentially dire implications. There are a few different ways it could go. The easy, and probably America-favored way would be for Baradei to act as an interim president and help oversee the reforms mentioned above. He has said he is willing to do this. Although it cuts against what many others believe, I can’t really envision a scenario where the Brotherhood takes full control of the apparatus of government, and frankly, I don’t think they want to. Especially since they were very much followers rather than leaders of these protests, I see them seeking representation on any post-Mubarak unity government, but not insisting on one of their own being number one. At least not right away. If they feel things are heading in too secular a direction, that could of course change.
The big unknown is the army. When I asked a friend how electricity, water, security, and transportation would be kept going if Mubarak left, he responded, “Army, army, army, army.” They have been politically quiescent for most of Mubarak’s reign, and it is assumed that all senior generals are firmly behind him. But if the situation degenerates, it seems likely that someone from the military will try to step into the breach, and at least try to keep the country running and stable, while the politics is worked out. Ex-generals permeate the government and the private sector here, as detailed in this article this article by Sarah Topol, so a well-connected general would be well-placed to run things. What they do from there is another question entirely.
P.S. For those curious to learn more about what is going on in Suez, and what is driving the more violent nature of the protests there, this article NPR piece may shed some light.
P.P.S. I somehow got dragged into this whole twitter thing. You can follow me at @El_Rashad
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