Tag: Lebanon
Hezbollah holds sway over the Lebanese state, and it’s hard to see it go away
Chatham House’s Lina Khatib recently launched a paper entitled How Hezbollah holds sway over the Lebanese state. The paper deals with the past trajectories through which Hezbollah has become the pivotal actor in Lebanese politics. To discuss her findings and their implications for the state of crisis that has gripped Lebanon for over a year, Chatham House convened a panel discussion July 8. The panel agreed that Hezbollah has played its cards well and has become engrained in Lebanon’s corrupt and non-functioning political system. In fact, it has become its most powerful player in many ways. The current crisis has made its transition from a purported ‘defender of the oppressed’ to an established and corrupt part of the political elite all the more clear. Unfortunately, the panel considered the most needed reforms that would actually benefit the Lebanese people unlikely to succeed in the near future.
The speakers were:
Joseph Daher
Visiting Professor,
University of Lausanne
Lina Khatib
Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme,
Chatham House
Mona Yacoubian
Senior Adviser,
U.S. Institute for Peace
Emile Hokayem (moderator)
Senior Fellow for Middle East Security,
IISS
Hezbollah as a unique, but entrenched part of the corrupt system
Lina Khatib summarized the findings of her new paper. She describes what is commonplace for Lebanese: that Hezbollah has become an entrenched part of the Lebanese system. There is no ‘state-within-a-state’: “Hezbollah permeates the state in Lebanon.” It employs many of the practices that have come to define the corrupt political system. There is no transparency on government tenders, and using ministries to provide rents to constituents is the standard.
Joseph Daher maintains that Hezbollah is the primary defender of the Lebanese neoliberal, sectarian political system. It presents itself as a defender of the oppressed (following the Iranian ideology of ‘Khomeinism‘), but this has proved mainly rhetorical. In practice, it oppresses labor unions and favors wealthy industrialists and crime bosses through the ministries it controls. In short, it behaves exactly as the other political entities in Lebanon.
Nonetheless, Khatib explained that Hezbollah is also unique in Lebanon. It has surveillance capacity. Not just within the state, but within its opponents too. This gives it a large advantage over others. Similarly, most parties take advantage of Lebanon’s corrupt political institutions. Hezbollah is different because they have been systematic in using any opportunity – no matter how small – to advance their influence. Hezbollah has political and coercive leverage over both its allies and its opponents, which gives it a great advantage within the Lebanese state. Even opponents of Hezbollah make deals with it behind closed doors – or sometimes even openly. This is what keeps the system in place. As Mona Yacoubian put it, Hezbollah has transformed into the “praetorian guard” of the corrupt Lebanese system.
Toeing the line between state and non-state
Hezbollah’s other major advantage is its status as a hybrid actor. Khatib explains that toeing the line between state and non-state is an ideal situation for Hezbollah. It has influence and legitimacy due to its ties to the state, but is not really a state actor, and is not seen as really in charge of state institutions. There are four main reasons why Hezbollah has no intention of changing this situation:
- The Lebanese state is very weak and not appealing to take over
- There is no Shia majority in Lebanon; outright Hezbollah rule would not be tolerated
- Hezbollah avoids accountability by shirking ownership of the state
- Hezbollah is under sanctions as a terrorist organization in the West, complicating its role as would-be regime.
All of them means all of them
Yacoubian pointed out that Hezbollah’s image has been tarnished, even among its own constituency. The slogan of the Lebanese protest movement ‘all of them means all of them’ refuses to differentiate among the political class. “You see now a political class that is defined purely by self-enrichment and is utterly devoid of any pretense of representing any higher ideal or value.” Yacoubian would go so far as to maintain that there are few real political divisions left among Lebanon’s ruling class.
Hezbollah’s resilience: Iranian support and no alternatives
According to Khatib, Iran’s support to Hezbollah is absolute. Anyone who thinks that Hezbollah can Lebanonize and be removed from Iran’s orbit is dreaming. Steadfast Iranian support makes it stronger than its domestic opponents. With its constituency, it proves resilient because it argues that there is no alternative. Hezbollah’s constituency might not like the party, but they see that there is no realistic alternative to the services it provides. Daher added that Hezbollah’s humanitarian outreach is very large. It claims to have helped some 50.000 families on top of their normal activities in the months of April and May alone. No other actor in Lebanon can match that.
Prospects for reform
So how to move forward? Khatib made it clear that the solution is not to extract Hezbollah from Lebanon, as this would be impossible. A solution would be to reform the Lebanese political system. This needs to be Lebanese-led, but it will require foreign aid. Yacoubian agreed. She proposed a number of concrete reforms that foreign actors can contribute to:
- Support the Lebanese Armed Forces, the only state institution standing between where we are today and total chaos. This is one of the few policies that is continuing today, primarily by the US.
- Cabinet formation and the ability to move forward with reforms are essential. The US, Gulf, and EU can do more to pressure the political elite to form a technocratic government. Steps towards this could be sanctions against the most corrupt political leaders who are obstructing government formation. This is currently happening haphazardly, but it could be done more concertedly.
- The international community can and should do more in the way of humanitarian assistance to the most vulnerable Lebanese. Bypassing the government is vital to avoid corruption. Perhaps a special UN agency could be tasked with this.
Khatib warned that economic pressure and sanctions alone are unlikely to change Hezbollah’s behavior on its own. As with the IRGC, a weakened currency only benefits Hizbollah, as they make their money abroad, in US dollars. The same is true for Assad in Syria. Sanctions are important, but they aren’t a primary tool. They need to be part of a comprehensive approach.
The panel was pessimistic about the prospects of efficient foreign support for reform. Khatib warned that Hezbollah benefits from the common attitude that sees Lebanon as a lost cause. If the international community gives up and maintains the status quo, Hezbollah benefits. Therefore, bottom-up reform is key. But Daher believes that the Lebanese protest movement has failed to create a unified answer to the corrupt system. He sees the international response as lacking originality. They are now attempting to get Saudi Arabia back to the table and to resume cabinet formation. These efforts will sustain the sectarian parties and system in the paradigm that has been employed for the last several decades.
Khatib emphasized that incremental change must be possible. The gradual approach by which Hezbollah grew its influence can be reversed in small steps. Nonetheless, Hokayem summarized Daher’s pessimistic view. Reform won’t come from the top down in Lebanon, it isn’t emerging in an organized form from the bottom up, and meaningful change is unlikely to come from the outside.
Watch the recording of the event here:
https://www.facebook.com/CHMENAProg/videos/1419092855114088
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The pandemic weakened the weakest governments and social groups
The Middle East Institute June 15 hosted a seminar discussing the impact of COVID-19 on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This was in collaboration with the recently released 6th wave of the Arab Barometer, an expansive regional survey. Using the results from this survey and analysis from the Brookings Doha Center, the panel assessed the pandemic’s effects on the region and the perceived efficiency of government responses. As the survey was held in three rounds throughout 2020-2021, the Arab Barometer could also register changes over time. Bottom line: the pandemic exacerbated the region’s existing problems and the hardest hit were the most vulnerable communities (refugees, the poor, and women).
The speakers were:
Yasmina Abuzzuhour
Visiting fellow
Brookings-Doha Center
Salma Al-Shami
Senior research specialist
Arab Barometer
Shala Al-Kli
Non-resident scholar
MEI
Deputy regional director
Mercy Corps
Karen Young (moderator)
Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy
MEI
Exacerbating existing problems
Shahla Kli COVID has worsened existing issues, particularly for IDPs and refugees. She highlighted two of these structural weaknesses in particular:
- Lack of institutionalization: This is manifested in weak healthcare systems and social welfare programs. COVIC pushed these to their limits. Furthermore, some countries (such as Syria or Lebanon) lack well-structured recovery and vaccination plans, exacerbating and lengthening the crisis.
- Unemployment/the ‘youth bulge’: Problems in the labor market abound in the MENA region. Many of its youthful populations work in informal, day-to-day jobs. This is particularly true for migrants and refugees. Often these jobs disappeared during lockdowns. Conversely, many poor citizens and migrants had no choice but to continue working despite the pandemic, potentially falling ill themselves.
Public opinion
Salma al-Shami outlined the relevant results of the Arab Barometer on this topic. The Barometer gathered data on seven countries (Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia) due to financial and access constraints. She summarized the findings in five main points:
- Concern for COVID is still high in these countries, but it is significantly higher among women than among men.
- The loss of education for children and increased cost of living were the the number one and two concerns. In Jordan some 140 days of education were lost according to UNESCO, and even more in Iraq.
- Public opinion on government response to COVID varies with the assessment of the healthcare system and inflation control. If these are positively rated, the government’s response also tends to be. This is the case in Morocco and Tunisia for example, while Lebanon and Iraq lack such public confidence. Morocco was also the only country where significant relief packages were deployed. Some 49% of respondents in that country indicated they received some form of aid, where that number didn’t top 20% in any of the other countries.
- Concerning vaccines, there is still some hesitancy. Where trust in government is high, so is the willingness to take a vaccine, as in Morocco which has already seen an exemplary vaccine rollout compared to its neighbors. However, in Jordan, Algeria, Iraq, and Tunisia, only 35-42% indicate they are willing to take a vaccine. Abouzzouhour added that in Jordan conspiracy theories surrounding the vaccines are rampant, and that the government is often not the public’s primary source of information.
- The survey data also indicates that COVID has exacerbated issues of income inequality and unemployment. Few respondents indicated they lost their jobs because of COVID-related lockdowns, although many did experience a temporary job interruption. Women and migrant labor in general suffered greater consequences.
Government responses
Adding to the statistics related to government response to COVID, Abouzzouhour commented that governments overpromised and underdelivered. The first wave saw major lockdowns and task forces with health experts, leading to a comparatively strong performance. However, the initial best cases (Tunisia and Jordan) failed to follow through on their success because they favored opening up for their economies. Additionally, relief packages and strong vaccination drives often faltered, despite government promises. In general, countries that previously underinvested in healthcare (as a percentage of their GDP) suffered high mortality rates.
Two interesting cases emerged from her story. Once again, Morocco was underlined as a strong performer in vaccination compared to its neighbors. Algeria is less clear-cut. It has some of the lowest infection rates in the region. However, its mortality rate is comparatively high, indicating that case numbers are likely underreported more than in other countries. Algeria was also criticized for failing to set up significant relief packages, despite the nation’s hydrocarbon resources.
Watch the recording of the event here:
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Nationalism is rising, but sectarianism won’t fade quickly
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) June 9 organized a discussion on issues of nationalism and sectarianism in the Middle East. The Sectarianism, Proxies & De-sectarianization project (SEPAD) co-organized; its director Simon Mabon joined the panel as an expert on Saudi Arabia. Together with two experts on Lebanon and Iraq, respectively, he assessed the state of sectarianism and nationalist projects in these three countries. Iraq and Lebanon are experiencing grassroots protest movements to overcome sectarianism while Saudi Arabia is seeing a major top-down drive through the Vision 2030 project spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Should these be understood as attempts to let national identity overcome sectarianism in politics? If so, can we expect them to be successful? The panel agreed that these issues are unlikely to be solved quickly or by MbS’s preferred economic means, but a clear shift in political thinking is occurring in the younger generations.
The speakers were:
Geneive Abdo
Visiting Fellow
AGSIW
Simon Mabon
Chair in International Politics
Lancaster University
Director
Richardson Institute
Director
SEPAD
Maha Yahya
Director
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Kristin Smith Diwan (moderator)
Senior Resident Scholar
AGSIW
Two protest movements and one grand vision
As Simon Mabon explained, SEPAD analyzes the events in the modern Middle East and tests the theory that secularist national identities are replacing sectarian political identities. The focus for his talk lay on the three countries Lebanon, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. As Abdo and Yahya indicated, Lebanon and Iraq are experiencing major protest movements that attack the corruption, lack of accountability, and cronyism in their countries. Both have democratic systems that reserve political positions and parliamentary representation to specific sectarian groups. In practice, as Yahya said, this “turned the relationship between individuals and their state into one that is mediated by sectarian community.” The political system has become a way to divide the cake among power brokers, who in Lebanon are referred to as ‘mafia’.
The protest movements in both of these countries self-identify as secular. As Abdo underlined, Iraqi protesters are overwhelmingly Shia and use Shia religious symbolism (such as references to the martyrdom of Shia Imam Hussein) in their demonstrations. Moreover, the Shia clergy in Iraq openly supports and collaborates with the protest movement. In this younger generation there is a clear division between personal religious identity and political identity. It is in the latter that desectarianization has occurred. Furthermore, the protesters emphasize that their agenda is issue-based.
Maha Yahya noted that Lebanon differs. The current protests go beyond clear-cut issues (such as the Whatsapp-tax that triggered the current protest movement) and aim at a complete overhaul of the sectarian political system. The individual controversies and issues that abound in Lebanese politics are seen as symptoms of a broken regime.
The situation in Saudi Arabia might appear unrelated. The Arab Spring saw some demonstrations in the Shia East of the country, but nothing on the scale of the other two countries discussed here. MBS is seeking to transform and modernize his country under his ambitious ‘Vision 2030’ project. Funded by billions of petrodollars, MBS wants to wean Saudi Arabia off its reliance on oil and modernize its economy. His vision includes relaxation of the strict religious laws for economic and political purposes. MBS hopes to transform Saudi citizenship to a secularist, civic nationalism in which both Sunni Wahhabi and Shia groups participate. According to Mabon, the ambitious pace and huge investments that go along with this show that MBS believes he has a ‘magic switch’ that can achieve this transformation of identities.
Sectarianism won’t go away easily
The panel agreed it would be naïve to think that deep-seated sectarian social and political systems will go away quickly. Vision 2030 aims to remove sectarian divisions by offering everyone a seat at the economic table, and therefore a stake in the state. The systems of marginalization and othering cannot be undone with a ‘magic switch’ and some ‘bread and games’, and centuries of repression cannot so easily be erased. Investing hundreds of millions into shopping malls in Shia areas could be seen as tokenism and introduces new issues of gentrification and marginalization along class lines. Nonetheless, a less cynical view could see these as the first steps towards change according to Mabon.
In Lebanon and Iraq, a major obstacle is the lack of unity within the protest movements. Groups and proto-parties are forming, aiming for Iraqi elections planned for October and Lebanese parliamentary elections to come in 2022. However, the grassroots movements have not yet coalesced into clear protest parties. Yahya and Abdo agreed that in both Lebanon and Iraq the political system discourages new parties, and the existing political establishment is unlikely to disappear in one electoral cycle. Yahya is cautiously optimistic in the medium term about the grassroots developments in Lebanon. Abdo indicated that Iraqi proto-parties are also emerging and receiving donations. However, there is a serious debate on whether the protesters should boycott the elections or try to get as many seats as possible. Iraq’s 2018 elections had an official turnout of 44%, although the real number is estimated to have been as low as 20%, meaning that turnout is already a critical issue for the established elite’s legitimacy. Moderator Diwan pointed out that boycotts in the region (such as in Bahrain or Kuwait) haven’t generally been a successful way to challenge entrenched elites.
Watch the recording of the event here:
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The future of the “French initiative” in Lebanon
The Middle East Institute (MEI) May 25 and 26 hosted the first two days of their inaugural Lebanon Policy Conference. In collaboration with the American Task Force on Lebanon and LIFE, this two-part series looks to tackle the urgency and potential paths for Lebanon’s current political, financial, and humanitarian crises. On Wednesday May 26, MEI hosted three events: The Future of US Policy Toward Lebanon: A Conversation with Senator Tim Kaine and Ambassador David Hale, Breaking the Lebanese Political Logjam, and Lebanon Amid Evolving Regional and International Dynamics. On Thursday May 27, MEI hosted two events: The Future of the “French Initiative”: A Conversation with Ambassador Pierre Duquesne, and The Final Countdown: How to Manage Lebanon’s Transformational Economic Crisis and Avert Total Collapse.
What is the future of the “French initiative” and how has the role of French and European diplomacy evolved in recent months? Ambassador Pierre Duquesne’s keynote speech for The Future of the “French Initiative” emphasized the need for international collaboration and pressure in continuing to promote the French initiative towards political reform in Lebanon. The speakers were:
Ambassador Pierre Duquesne
Ambassador in charge of Coordinating International Support to Lebanon, French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Charbel Abou Charaf (Moderator)
Partner, White & Castle LLP; Member, LIFE Advocate
LIFE Advocate Program:
Charaf explained that LIFE Advocates was created with regards to the unprecedented existential crisis currently taking place in Lebanon. The program aims to channel LIFE’s significant collective expert resources and goodwill to influence economic policymaking in Lebanon and support economic and financial development.
Background on the French initiative in Lebanon
Duquesne began his keynote speech discussing the primary initiatives launched by France and President Macron following the August 4, 2020 port explosion. While Macron advocated a French initiative to kick-start discussions to form a government, there has been no movement on that front. At present, the French initiative has shifted from promoting the formation of a new government at any cost to promoting a government dedicated to reforms. However, each roadmap released by Macron has been postponed due to the Lebanese political class.
Duquesne cited four reasons why the French initiative is still relevant:
- to increase confidence within the Lebanese polity in its ability to create and sustain a functioning government;
- to push the political class to act by supporting public opinion, suggesting action in the short term, and pushing the international community to participate;
- to sustain French efforts that have taken place throughout Macron’s four years in office;
- to promote the implementation of an IMF program to push reforms forward and treat the current banking crisis.
In his statement, Duquesne emphasized the relevance of Lebanese development, drawing attention to the need for methods and reforms to remain current and applicable. The French initiative’s fight against corruption was indispensable, but it would not be sufficient to establish a new and stable governing body.
Hezbollah as a key obstacle
The Lebanese people and government, according to Duquesne, have always promoted the dissociation of Lebanon from regional crises. Duquesne argued that if the country does not engage in dynamic reform then it may be the object of confrontation by regional actors. He claimed dissociation is essential for reforms and reforms can promote dissociation. In his discussion of Hezbollah, he emphasized the need to distinguish between the military and political wings of Hezbollah, clarifying the condemned nature of the militant wing while remembering the party’s political power. It is impossible to ignore Hezbollah, and it is essential to interact politically with the group. This is not to promote support for the organization, however. As Senator Tim Kaine explained in his statements on the future of US foreign policy towards Lebanon, Duquesne reiterated the need for the international community to support the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Concluding thoughts:
Duquesne concluded his statement with a call to action towards the international community. He reminded viewers that France granted 86 million euros last year and 60 million euros this year towards reconstruction and relief efforts. However, he also warned of indifference, emphasizing the risk of fatigue that comes from extended political unrest without significant change. However, in a conclusion to his talk, Duquesne quoted President Macron stating “Je ne vous laisserai pas” (I will not abandon you), a statement by Macron to the Lebanese people. Duquesne reminded participants and viewers that the international community is needed in handling and finding solutions to the current crises facing Lebanon.
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Peace Picks | May 31 – June 4, 2021
Peace Picks | May 31- June 4, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Addressing the Lebanese Social and Humanitarian Crises | June 1, 2021 | 9:45 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Lebanon’s social and humanitarian crises have sharply accelerated over the past two years. From the onset of Covid-19 to the Beirut port explosion and the unfolding financial and socio-economic collapse, Lebanese citizens as well as Syrian and Palestinian refugee communities are witnessing a rapid slide into poverty and despair. Recent developments threaten to fuel civil unrest, xenophobia, and extremism. In the meantime, international partners including donor countries, multilateral institutions, and non-governmental organizations have rallied to help Lebanon avert a total and irreversible humanitarian disaster with wide-ranging repercussions.
How have international partners and the Lebanese diaspora circumvented the absence of a strong and capable central government to deliver much-needed support to citizens and refugees alike? What are some of the different potential scenarios for Lebanon on the social and humanitarian fronts in the months ahead? What must be done in the short and long term to prevent the country from spiraling further downward?
Speakers:
Congressman Darin LaHood (Opening Remarks)
U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois’s 18th District
Paul Salem (Opening Remarks)
President, Middle East Institute
Alex Mahoney
Acting Office Director for the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe, Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, USAID
Nadine Massoud-Bernheim
Chief Executive Officer, LIFE
Haneen Sayed
Lead Social Protection and Jobs Specialist, MENA Region, World Bank
Mona Yacoubain (Moderator)
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
- Equality for Some: Challenges to Women’s Rights in Egypt | June 1, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Despite hard-won gains in rights and freedoms carved out over the past century, Egyptian women are seeing challenges to their rights and duties as citizens. During a period of rapidly evolving social and environmental dynamics, women are struggling to have their own development keep up with the shifting landscape in both personal and professional life.
There also appears to be an odd dichotomy; despite official attempts to promote gender equality, with more women in cabinet and on boards than ever before, long-held patriarchal attitudes mean some positions are still firmly off-limits to women. Women are also facing myriad challenges to their personal lives, with the much-debated draft Personal Status Law threatening to set women’s rights back decades. What are the socioeconomic consequences of these issues?
Speakers:
Hoda El-Sadda
Professor of English and Comparative Literature, Cairo University
Mozn Hassan
Founder and Executive Director, Nazra for Feminist Studies
Mirette F. Mabrouk (Moderator)
Senior Fellow and Director, Egypt Program, MEI
Additional Speaker TBA
- Small Satellite Proliferation, Advanced Technologies, and Their Security Implications | June 1, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Foreign Policy Research Institute | Register Here
The uncontrolled re-entry of China’s rocket, which launched the core module of China’s space station, has raised concern about the absence of norms governing space. To provide an important perspective, FPRI has assembled a panel of experts to discuss the risks and opportunities of dual-use technologies. How do we ensure a space environment that is safe and sustainable as the number and capabilities of objects in space increase? Can new technologies help mitigate the risks of international conflict over space?
Speakers:
Mariel Borowitz
Associate Professor, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology
Everett Carl Dolman
Professor of Comparative Military Studies, U.S. Air Force Air Command and Staff College
Glenn Lightsey
Professor at the Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Lawrence Rubin
Associate Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology and a Templeton Fellow in the National Security Program at FPRI
- Winning the Peace: Armed Groups & Security Sector Challenges | June, 3, 2021 | 8:00 AM EST | Register Here
Armed non-state actors have exploited state fragility with devastating impact and have experienced a remarkable ascension in recent years, powerfully competing with conventional military forces, sometimes delivering governance to local populations, courting state sponsors and working with them across borders. In the wider Middle East, their rise and impact has been pronounced. Developing effective internal and external policy responses to such hybrid security environments, rife with contestations over power, resources, and geopolitical dynamics has been a challenge. Policymakers have grappled with integrating some of the armed groups into formal governing structures, while countering others and with devising policy responses to their rule.
To explore these issues, Crisis Response Council and the Brookings Institution’s Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors are delighted to welcome you to a panel discussion that examines the future of armed groups in the Middle East and policy options for responding to them. It looks at whether armed groups should be integrated into formal governing structures, whether armed movements can govern, and which armed groups should be accepted, and which should be sidelined; it examines how the international community, particularly the U.S. and Europe, should address security crises and looks at potential policies for conflict mitigation and resolution at the local and regional level.
Speakers:
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Brookings Institution
Frederic Wehrey
Carnegie Endowmen
Benedetta Berti
NATO
Yaniv Voller
University of Kent; Stanford University
Ranj Alaaldin
Brookings Institution
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Coordinating International Support for Lebanon: A Conversation with Dr. Najat Rochdi of UNSCHOL | June 3, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is thrilled to host Dr. Najat Rochdi for a keynote conversation as part of MEI’s inaugural Lebanon policy conference. Dr. Rochdi is the United Nations deputy special coordinator and resident and humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon. She brings over 20 years of experience in development and humanitarian assistance and international coordination in conflict and post-conflict areas.
How is international aid coordination unfolding in Lebanon? Which mechanisms are already in place? What are they building towards? What challenges and obstacles lie ahead? How will the role and involvement of the United Nations in Lebanon develop in the months ahead?
Speakers:
Dr. Najat Rochdi
Deputy Special Coordinator, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL)
Joyce Karam (Moderator)
Senior Washington Correspondent, The National
- Setting the Agenda for a Transatlantic Digital Alliance | June 3, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | German Marshall Fund | Register Here
Tech issues – from digital taxation and the platform economy to artificial intelligence and the protection of critical technology – are central to the transatlantic relationship. European Commission President von der Leyen identified technology as one of four pillars of her “US-EU agenda for global change,” and called for a new “Trade and Technology Council” to strengthen transatlantic collaboration. As U.S. President Biden prepares to visit Brussels, experienced policymakers will explore the opportunities, challenges, and objectives of EU-US engagement on technology, and how these issues will affect the transatlantic relationship into the future.
Speakers:
Tom Wheeler
Former Chairman of the FCC
Luis Viegas Cardoso
Senior Expert of Digital, Technology and Innovation, I.D.E.A. Advisory Service, European Commission
Karen Kornbluh
Senior Fellow and Director, GMF Digital
Mark Scott (Moderator)
Chief Technology Correspondent, Politico
- International Order and its Discontents: Russia, Iran, and the Struggles for Recognition | June 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | Belfer Center | Register Here
Russia’s relationship with Iran illustrates how normative expectations, power aspirations, and shared experiences of denigration can regulate, transform, and structure relations over time. Despite the areas of tension and the mistrust endemic to the relationship, Russia and Iran have exhibited synergies in their approaches to international order as shared experiences of discontent have further galvanized these countries to coalesce around the contestation of the so-called “Western”-led international order.
This seminar will examine the nature of the Russia-Iran relationship, drawing on research of Moscow and Tehran’s domestic foreign policy debates, archival documents, and elite interviews. It offers a framework that accounts for multiple expressions of power and the norms, ideas, values, and solidaristic bonds inherent in the evolution of the Russia-Iran relationship. The broader implications of this case illustrate how power inequalities, and, by extension, the unequal distribution of legitimacy and authority can form a basis of solidarity between states and invite contestation over the rights, rules, and institutions of international society.
Speakers:
Nicole Grajewski
Research Fellow, International Security Program
- Fast Reactors, the Versatile Test Reactor, and Nuclear Safety and Nonproliferation | June 3, 2021 | 4:30 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
The discussion will focus on the role of advanced nuclear energy systems for the purpose of reducing carbon from fossil fuels and supporting global clean energy growth, and the essential role of the Versatile Test Reactor in supporting innovation in nuclear energy. It will address issues related to safety and security by design, how the VTR can enhance those features in the next generation of nuclear technologies, and how advanced reactor systems can incorporate enhanced safety and safeguard features.
As the United States accelerates its engagement on advanced nuclear research and development, the US Department of Energy and other federal bodies are adapting policies and procedures to assure that these new technologies are safe and secure and are deployed in a way that supports both climate and national security goals. In this moderated discussion, nuclear energy policy and technology experts will share their insights on pathways to continued innovation, international security, and the continued value of the nuclear power sector.
Speakers:
Ambassador Thomas Graham, Jr.
Chairman of the Board of Directors, Lightbridge Corporation
Ambassador (ret.) Laura Holgate
Vice President, Materials Risk Management, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Jackie Kempfer
Director of Government Affairs, OKLO, Inc; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
Kenneth Luongo
President, Partnership for Global Security
Dr. Kemal Pasamehmetoglu
Executive Director for the Versatile Test Reactor, Idaho National Laboratory
Dr. Jennifer Gordon (Moderator)
Managing Editor and Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
- NATO 2030: A Keynote Address by Jens Stoltenberg | June 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Brookings Institution | Register Here
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), together with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and The Brookings Institution, have the pleasure to invite you to a special virtual conversation.
As allied leaders prepare for the NATO Summit in Brussels on June 14, 2021, the transatlantic alliance faces a host of challenges that include Russia’s aggressive actions, the threat of terrorism and cyberattacks, disruptive technologies, the security impact of climate change, and the rise of China. At the same time, the Biden administration offers the opportunity for Europe and North America to work more closely together than they have for many years. The Secretary General will outline his vision in a keynote address followed by a discussion of the NATO 2030 agenda.
Speakers:
John R. Allen
President, The Brookings Institution
Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook
Designated Director and CEO, Germain Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Jens Stolenberg
Secretary General, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Envisioning Lebanon’s Path to Sustainable and Equitable Growth: A Conversation with Ferid Belhaj | June 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is thrilled to host Ferid Belhaj for a keynote conversation as part of MEI’s inaugural Lebanon policy conference. Mr. Belhaj is the World Bank Group’s Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa. From 2012 to 2017, he was World Bank Director for the Middle East, in charge of its work programs in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Iran, based in Beirut, Lebanon.
How can Lebanon develop and implement a new economic model to promote sustainable and equitable growth? How will the role and involvement of the World Bank in Lebanon evolve in the months ahead?
Speakers:
Ferid Belhaj
Vice President, Middle East and North Africa Region, The World Bank
Ronnie W. Hammad (Moderator)
Adviser, Office of the Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, The World Bank
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Peace Picks | May 24-28, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Africa Day at the Atlantic Council: A vision for the African Century | May 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
In celebration of Africa Day, which marks the founding of the African Union, and to introduce the new Africa Center team and vision under Director Ambassador Rama Yade, the Atlantic Council is launching its African Conversations Series. The series aims to shine a light on high-profile US officials’ connections to the continent and engagement with Africa policy.
High-profile US officials speak to US-Africa policy under the Biden administration, spotlighting Africa’s strategic importance and dynamic outlook.
Speakers:
The Hon. Dana L. Banks
Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Africa, National Security Council
James L. Jones, Jr.
Executive Chairman Emeritus, Atlantic Council
H.E. Hilda Suka-Mafudze
Ambassador to the United States, African Union
The Hon. Linda Thomas-Greenfield
Representative to the United Nations, US Department of State
Frederick Kempe
President and CEO, Atlantic Council
Rama Yade (moderator)
Africa Center Director, Atlantic Council
2. Reshore, Reroute, Rebalance: A U.S. Strategy for Clean Energy Supply Chains| May 25, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
This event is a presentation and discussion of the new CSIS report Reshore, Reroute, Rebalance: A U.S. Strategy for Clean Energy Supply Chains. Asrenewable energy technologies mature and get deployed at scale, there is a greater need to think strategically about this system. Reshore, Reroute, Rebalance argues that the United States can apply some of the mental models, tools, and institutions used for conventional energy sources to think about supply chains in clean energy—and, in doing so, grow its economy and boost its national security.
Speakers:
Nikos Tsafos (Introduction)
Interim Director and Senior Fellow, Energy Security and Climate Change Program, CSIS
Sarah Ladislaw
Senior Associate (Non-resident), Energy Security and Climate Change Program, CSIS
Laszlo Varro
Chief Economist, International Energy Agency
3. In Search of Peace for Afghanistan: Historical Perspectives | May 26, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Last month’s announcement that all U.S and international troops will leave Afghanistan before September 11, 2021 has sparked intense debate over the country’s future after over four decades of near-continuous conflict. Deteriorating security conditions, uncertainty over the level of international engagement moving forward and political instability pose great risks to the fragile peace process and the prospects for a sustainable political settlement. Many analysts have compared the current moment to the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, an alarming parallel given the years of civil war and Taliban rule that followed.
These issues are at the heart of a recently published book by the Kakar History Foundation and Heart of Asia Society titled In Search of Peace for Afghanistan: Historical Letters of President Najibullah and Dr. M. Hassan Kakar — A Collection of Essays. This essay collection considers the correspondence between the former Afghan president and one of the country’s leading scholars regarding Afghanistan’s post-Soviet future and the lessons that can be drawn as the country navigates the U.S. troop withdrawal. Several of the contributing authors to this book will reflect on Afghan politics and the country’s relationship with the international community as U.S. troops withdraw.
Speakers:
Amb. Lakhdar Brahimi (Keynote)
Former U.N. Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Syria; former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Algeria
Amb. Richard Olson (Introduction)
Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace; former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Belquis Ahmadi
Senior Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
Robert Crews
Professor of History, Stanford University
Kawun Kakar
Executive Director, Kakar History Foundation
Amb. Janan Mosazai
Former Ambassador of Afghanistan to Pakistan and China; Co-Founder and Vice President, Heart of Asia Society
Omar Sharifi
Country Director, American Institute of Afghanistan Studies
Omar Sadr
Assistant Professor of Political Science, American University of Afghanistan
Dipali Mukhopadhyay (Moderator)
Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. Re-balancing U.S. Security Engagement with Arab States | May 26, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The Biden administration’s desire to reduce the U.S. presence in the Middle East is just the latest attempt by an American president to pull out of the region, and yet the legacy of U.S. entrenchment in the Middle East continues to draw it in. To what extent has the heavily militarized nature of U.S. engagement with Arab states met its goals for regional peace and self-reliance? Can the United States draw down its military presence, reduce security assistance, and be more selective about arms sales without sacrificing critical interests and American jobs? What would less securitized U.S. policies mean for competition with China and Russia in the region?
Speakers:
Chris Murphy (Keynote)
Senator for Connecticut, US Senate; Member, Foreign Relations Committee; Chairman, Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism
Frederic Wehrey
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Michele Dunne
Director and Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Kim Ghattas
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
David Schenker
Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Jalel Harchaoui
Senior Fellow, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
5. Deal or No Deal: US-Iran Talks and Implications for the Middle East | May 26, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Most signs at the moment suggest that US-Iran nuclear negotiations are making incremental progress. There might be a deal, which would have to include the US lifting some of the sanctions on the country, while the government of President Hassan Rouhani is still in place. Alternatively, the talks can drag on for months more to come. What is undeniable is that the prospects of a revived nuclear agreement to be sustainable is best served by broadening the US-Iranian dialogue as quickly as possible. A number of issues will continue to pit American and Iranian interests against each other. On this list of disagreements, US-Iran competition in Iraq is among the most contentious.
Can Iraq provide a platform for the US and Iran to co-exist? What other high-stake regional areas of competition could be impacted depending on the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations?
Speakers:
Amb. (ret.) Rend al-Rahim
Co-founder and President, The Iraq Foundation; former Iraqi Ambassador to the US
Michael Rubin
Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
Ali Vaez
Senior Advisor to the president; Iran project Director, International Crisis Group
Alex Vatanka
Director, Iran Program, Middle East Institute
6. MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Breaking the Lebanese Political Logjam | May 26, 2021 | 11:15 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
How can Lebanon overcome the domestic and international obstacles to forming a truly independent, reform-minded government? Is such a government even possible with the current political establishment? Which political scenarios are the most likely to unfold in the weeks and months ahead? How far has the Lebanese protest movement come since October 2019? How can an increasingly busy United States and international community support the people of Lebanon in their quest for real change? Where does Lebanon even fall on the international community’s list of priorities?
Speakers:
John Alterman
Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Paul Salem
President, Middle East Institute
Maha Yahya
Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator)
Lebanon Program Director, Middle East Institute
7. China in the Middle East: What Lies Ahead? | May 27, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Here
Conflict and instability in the Middle East show no signs of abating. Recent jousting between Israeli and Palestinian forces, the ongoing war in Yemen, and continued Saudi Arabia-Iran friction threaten to further destabilize the region. Though President Biden is attempting to restore coherence in the U.S. approach to the Middle East, his administration remains focused on responding to the pandemic domestically and on countering China in the international arena. Beijing, for its part, appears intent on playing a larger role in Middle Eastern affairs. It continues to foster stronger ties with regional countries through its Belt and Road Initiative and securing cooperation agreements, such as the twenty-five-year investment deal with Iran. How will China’s growing influence in the region affect the interests of the United States and other actors?
Speakers:
He Wenping
Professor at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Paul Haenle
Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
8. Women and Iran’s Presidential Elections: What Role Will They Play? | May 27, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Iranian women emerged as a force of change in 1997 after they voted overwhelmingly for Mohammad Khatami, bringing to power a reformist cleric. Although candidates and political parties have issued plans to improve their status to win their votes, women have seen little improvement in their rights at home and in society. Many see the country’s civil code and constitution, which were written based on Islamic Law after the revolution, as the source of discrimination.
Nevertheless, women’s role in the presidential elections on June 18 remains crucial. Will they vote and who will they vote for? What are their concerns? Or, will they stay away from the polls in a sign of protest to create a legitimacy crisis for the regime?
Speakers:
Roya Boroumand
Executive Director, The Abdorrahman Boroumand Center
Fatemeh Haghighatjoo
CEO and co-founder, Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy; Iranian scholar; women’s rights advocate
Susan Tahmassebi
Director, FEMENA; women’s rights activist
Nazila Fathi (Moderator)
Non-resident scholar, MEI
9. The Gulf Cooperation Council at 40 | May 27, 2021 | 10 AM ET | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
As the GCC marks its 40th anniversary, what has been the organization’s real impact on its member states, the Gulf, and international relations? Is the GCC living up to its potential to foster regional economic integration? Can the organization still function as an effective forum for cooperation on defense and security issues, despite political divisions among its members? Will the January signing of the Al Ula agreement ending the crisis with Qatar help to build back trust and collaboration?
Speakers:
Abdullah Baabood
Chair of the State of Qatar for Islamic Area Studies and Visiting Professor, School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University
Matteo Legrenzi
Professor of International Relations, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Emma Soubrier
Visiting Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Kristin Smith Diwan (Moderator)
Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
10. Next Steps for U.S. Policy in the Ongoing Crisis in the Middle East | May 27, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Center for American Progress | Submit questions Here
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has had devastating human costs and exposed long-time vulnerabilities and inequities among Palestinians and Israelis. The Biden administration has stepped up its engagement to work toward ending the conflict, but what steps should the United States take to address the underlying conditions that led to this latest violence?
Speakers:
Ghaith Al Omari
Former Palestinian Authority adviser; Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Ezzedine C. Fishere
Former Egyptian diplomat; Senior Lecturer, Dartmouth College
Brian Katulis
Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress
Ofer Zalzberg
Director of the Middle East Program, Herbert C. Kelman Institute
Mara Rudman (Moderator)
Executive Vice President for Policy, Center for American Progress; former U.S. Deputy Envoy for Middle East Peace
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