Tag: Israel/Palestine
Stevenson’s army, January 19
There’s other news, but I want to draw your attention to an excellent piece in NYT on what Congress knew about the Manhattan Project to build atomic weapons. It’s detailed, accurate, and includes links to several important documents. Sadly, I don’t see it anywhere on the NYT website, but I knew it existed because I saw it in the printed paper.
Reporter Catie Edmondson shows that at least 7 members of Congress knew key details, including the $800 million initial funding, because Secretary of War Stimson had briefed them. Speaker Sam Rayburn told others “trust me,” and they did. Edmondson doesn’t mention that wartime appropriations bills were lump sum measures, with very few line items, so most details of military spending were known only to a few members. I see this as proof that there was knowledge and accountability, despite the necessary secrecy.
[Be sure to read the Rayburn interview with Forrest Pogue, which has several stories about how Rayburn operated.]
– FP has more details about the Houthi terrorist designation.
– FT says Arab nations have a plan to recognize Israel in return for a Palestinian state
– WSJ assesses Iran’s military capabilities.
– Semafor says some of Speaker Johnson’s problems come because he “talks like a lawyer”
– Lawfare ponders sources of JCS Chairman’s power
– DIA released report on Iranian UAVs in Ukraine
– It now looks as if Speaker Johnson, talking with Trump, wants to prevent a border security bill [so the GOP has the issue] and avoid any votes on Ukraine [where GOP is divided] Unclear how many GOP Senators agree with that strategy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 18
– Pakistan has struck back at Iran.
– US has made special terrorist designation of Houthis. Note the legal nuances.
– New Taiwan leader says he’ll stick to status quo.
– US pressures Israel on Gaza electronics
– WSJ says US plans for Mideast aren’t gathering support
-Kevin Drum says the Fed is doing business differently
– SAIS prof Hal Brands assesses US support for Ukraine
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 30
NYT has a lengthy report on military problems in the early hours of the 10/7 attacks. Among its findings:
– 2 of the 6 battalions based opposite Gaza were moved to the West Bank on 10/5.
– There was no plan to deal with the kind and level of the Hamas attacks.
– The base which should have been the command post for the response was overrun by Hamas.
– IDF personnel sometimes had to use WhatsApp to give bombing targets.
– Because of the holiday, many units were at only 50% manning.
– Hamas caused major delays on the roads leading toward Gaza with sniper and vehicle operations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 19
– US sets up a Red Sea task force
–Germany deploys troops abroad
– Election interference by several countries
– Reuters forecasts Trump foreign policy
– GOP voters support law-breaking
– Gaza hurts Biden with voters
– 118th Congress hasn’t done much
WaPo has new interactive showing DC area flood risks
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 18
– Netanyahu brags that he has blocked a Palestinian state.
– Semafor says US is considering attacks on Houthis.
– WSJ says US & Israel knew of Hamas funding but didn’t act.
– David Ignatius reports on the West Bank.
– Critics see problems in DOD drone program
-New NDAA includes provision requiring congressional action to pull out of NATO. [I sympathize with the intent but am unsure of its legality.]
– Lawyers urge SIOP for economic conflict with China
– Atlantic notes history of changing Supreme Court jurisdiction over cases
– On the 250 anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, Smithsonian has history.
Semafor editor suggests these newsletters for following China: Flagship Senior Editor Prashant Rao recommended Sinocism, The Wire China, ChinaTalk, and WSJ China for all your in-depth China-watching needs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A Palestinian state yes, recognition now no
A bad idea is making the rounds in discussions of the Gaza war. People I respect are recommending that the United States formally recognize a Palestinian state.
I support the idea of a Palestinian state. But now is not the time for the US to recognize one. Doing so could have catastrophic consequences for President Biden in the 2024 election. Those who want to see him re-elected should lay off this premature idea and focus instead on a ceasefire.
The alleged diplomatic advantages are spurious
It is true that 139 other states have recognized Palestine. But that has made little difference. None of those recognitions has contributed an iota to the welfare of Palestinians or incentivized Israel to negotiate seriously. Nor would US recognition. It would however strain relations with Israel and reduce American leverage on Prime Minister Netanyahu. Even Israelis who want an early end to the Gaza war would not understand American recognition while Gaza is in chaos and the West Bank in nascent rebellion.
American recognition would not, as alleged, convince Palestinians “that the United States is finally matching its talk of peace with meaningful action.” So long Washington continues to veto UN Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire in addition to shipping massive amounts of arms to Israel, Palestinians will rightly perceive that America is supporting their adversary.
US recognition is not required to name an ambassador to deal directly with the Palestinians. Washington had such an ambassador to the Palestinians for decades before President Trump closed the consulate in Jerusalem that housed him. The US should name an envoy and station her in East Jerusalem.
Most Palestinans would not welcome a US effort to bolster the PA. Especially in the West Bank, where the PA has ruled for a long time without any democratic legitimacy. There Palestinians would regard US recognition as helping a decrepit and corrupt entity. Seventy-five per cent of West Bankers support Hamas control of Gaza (twice the percentage of Gazans!). Many Gazans would regard US recognition of the PA under current conditions as laughable, if any are still capable of laughing.
The domestic political consequences could be severe
Support for Israeli military action in the US was only 50% in November. Younger people, people of color, and Democrats are less supportive. A lot of Americans would support a ceasefire, but there is no evidence they would care much about diplomatic recognition.
Moreover, the post-war situation in Gaza will be challenging. Vast amounts of aid will be required even as Hamas remnants continue to create chaos. No one no one will be able to suppress the disorder entirely. If the PA is unable to handle Gaza–and there is no reason to believe it can–then Washington will have put its recognition chip on a losing proposition. Biden, whose approval numbers are low and declining, would not benefit from the perception he had erred. Recognition could provide the Republicans with a forceful critique and sway independents, now evenly split on the Gaza war, in the wrong direction.
The right approach is to await better conditions
Recognition should wait until after the war, renewal of the Palestinian Authority as a democratic entity, a return of relative calm to the West Bank, and relief of the inevitable suffering in Gaza. Once order is restored, recognition should be on the table, but not before. We can hope that by then Israelis will have chased Prime Minister Netanyahu from office and installed a government ready to deal with the renewed PA. That would open the door to recognition without opening the door to Donald Trump.
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