Tag: Israel/Palestine

Stevenson’s army, December 15

– US “officials” are making clear to the media that the Biden administration wants Israel to reduce the intensity and shorten the duration of its operations in Gaza. Here’s NYT version. And from WSJ. And from Axios.  Israel seems to be resisting.

CNN reports a DNI assessment — later confirmed by WaPo — that almost half Israeli air attacks have been with “dumb” bombs.

– Bulwark has detailed analysis of US views on Gaza war.

– Despite earlier reports of a work-around, Hungary vetoed additional EU aid to Ukraine at this time.

– NYT reports harsh Ukraine recruiting tactics

– AP explains the various US pots of money for Ukraine

On other issues– FP blasts Biden policy toward Venezuela.

– FP analyzes China’s actions in SCS

– National Security Archive releases collection on Carter Administration

-NYT has ticktock on SCOTUS on Dobbs decision

FYI, today is Bill of Rights Day, celebrating 1791 ratification of first ten amendments to the Constitution.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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The cacophony is deafening but unnecessary

Just one example…

It is hard to make good sense of the varying perspectives on the Gaza war. Let me try to suggest they need not be so cacophonous.

Israel and the United States are diverging

The dissonance between Israel and the United States is get louder. They agree on the war objective of destroying Hamas in Gaza, whatever that means. But President Biden is pressing Israel to allow more humanitarian aid, protect civilians, ease the crackdown on the West Bank, and agree to turn over Gaza eventually to a renewed Palestinian Authority. Biden is also worrying out loud about declining international support for Israel and about the extreme nationalists in Israel’s right-wing government.

Prime Minister Netanyahu will have none of it. He wants Israel to be responsible for Gaza security after the war and to conduct a deradicalization operation, whatever that is. The Prime Minister claims Israel is already doing everything reasonable to allow humanitarian assistance and to protect civilians. He is uninterested in bringing the Palestinian Authority into Gaza and is continuing the crackdown in the West Bank. He hopes to stay in power, at least so long as the war lasts. That will make it last longer.

Arab disharmony

This is not the only disharmony evident around Gaza issues. Arab countries are anxious to signal support for a ceasefire in particular and Palestinians in general. But they in fact have done little to pressure Israel or Hamas for one. The Abrahamic accords remain in place and the Arab signatories (and possible future signatories) are not doing anything to limit Israeli economic and military capabilities. Nor is there any sign they are helping to block Hamas from resupplying.

Gaza has split the Arab world. Syria, Hizbollah-conditioned Lebanon, and Houthi-ruled parts of Yemen are trying to aggravate Israel’s challenges. Iran is supplying and cheering them on, thus prolonging the agony of the Gazas the “resistance axis” claims to support.

Others would be happy to see the destruction of Hamas, which is especially non grata in Egypt and the UAE. Those two countries loathe Islamist politics, especially the Muslim Brotherhood version from which Hamas descends. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and even Qatar don’t want to see Hamas win and thereby seize the banner of Palestinian liberation.

Even within Israel and in the West Bank, there are conflicting Arab views. Some Palestinians within Israel came to the aid of Jews on October 7. In the West Bank, however, Hamas has gained support.

American Muslims, Christians, and Jews

Inside the United States, there is growing discomfort among the majority of Jews, who lean heavily Democratic, with Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza. That contrasts with the Christian right solid support for Israel. Liberal American Jews largely agree with American Muslims on a ceasefire and on a two-state solution. The vast majority of American Jews differ from more radical Muslims and supporters who are pro-Hamas or oppose the idea of a Jewish state.

Harmonizing

The cacophony is unnecessary. Here are a few propositions that many would support:

  1. Hamas has proven itself devoted to mass murder of civilians. Disempowering it is vital, though its Islamist ideology will survive.
  2. The current conduct of the war is not the only way to disempower Hamas and does not appear to be succeeding. It is killing a disproportionate number of civilians relative to modest military accomplishments.
  3. Israel should end the military attacks and hunt Hamasees responsible for the October 7 murder and mayhem individually. Many Arab states would be prepared to cooperate, quietly, in that effort.
  4. A massive relief operation is already needed for Gaza. The requirements will increase once the war stops. The US, Europe, the Gulf, and Israel need to prepare to meet those requirements.
  5. American and Israeli Muslims, Christians, and Jews should unite in supporting humanitarian assistance and reconstruction.
  6. Governance of Gaza after the war will be an enormous challenge. If it is not met, guys with guns, many of them former Hamas, will run local protection rackets, trade in drugs and other contraband, and continue to attack Israel when the opportunity arises.
  7. Chaos of that sort on Israel’s border is in no one’s interest, especially Egypt and Jordan (because of the likely infection of the West Bank) but also the Gulf.
  8. A clear roadmap to a two-state solution would offer a political outcome most Palestinians would find attractive and most countries, other than Iran’s proxies, could support.
  9. This would need to start with renewal of the Palestinian Authority, through presidential and parliamentary elections as well as convening the Palestinian Legislative Council.
  10. It will also require replacement of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing coalition in Israel with politicians prepared to deal with the Palestinian Authority once renewed.

Not everyone will agree with these propositions. But they are a start in building a consensus among today’s dissonant voices.

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Stevenson’s army, December 4

Education is not only an issue on the Palestinian side.

– Administration warns Congress on need for Ukraine aid.

– FT says EU also stalled on Ukraine aid.

Border security talks collapse

– WaPo details divisive planning for Ukraine offensive

– Sen Graham disses Sec. Austin

-NYT forecasts more radical Trump administration

– Venezuela moves toward annexation of Guyana

– WaPo says US looks at bad options for Gaza

Drone attacks in Red Sea linked to Houthis

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, December 1

– NYT says Israeli intelligence got 40-page Hamas attack plan a year ago but dismissed it as “aspirational.”

– Brown University institute says US has counter-terrorism efforts in 78 countries.

-WSJ reports on Israeli plans to get Hamas fighters.

– Avoid a BRAC – what lawmakers want to protect.

– House votes to freeze Iran funds.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

– Carnegie paper discusses legal conditions on aid to Israel

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Stevenson’s army, November 30

Henry Kissinger died Wednesday, 6 months after his 100th birthday. NYT has a comprehensive obit.  Fred Kaplan is more critical, drawing on declassified documents bundled by the National Security Archive.

As most of you know, Kissinger was one of my academic mentors. I TA’d in his course for two years, had weekly meetings with him. I almost went to work in his NSC — until my immediate sponsors resigned in protest because of the invasion of Cambodia.

I was disappointed that he never wrote a letter of recommendation for my academic job portfolio, but Tony Lake later told me he said he was too busy. Lake also said I was in good company. Among the other things Kissinger repeatedly didn’t have time for were relations with the UN and foreign economic policy.

– There’s a new poll showing US polarization and willingness to use political violence.

– NYT analyzes polls on US views of Israel and Palestine.

– NYT notes danger of US-Iran war.

– Paul Musgrave tells how views of war have changed.

One more point on Kissinger: while I admire many of his accomplishments and deplore others, I especially resent his way of trying to avoid responsibility by making jokes. [“The illegal we do right away; the unconstitutional takes a little longer.”]

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Friends don’t let friends commit mass murder

Let’s leave aside whether the Israeli campaign in Gaza has constituted genocide. That depends on its government’s intentions. There are genocidal implications of what some Israelis, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have said. But we are far from the kind of evidence on intent that would be required for an indictment at the International Criminal Court. Nevermind a conviction. Let’s leave that question for after the war.

Is it worth it?

The immediate effects of the Israeli bombing are appalling. It has displaced at least half the population. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, which operates under the authority of Hamas, on the order of 15,000 people are dead. Forty per cent are said to be children. Gaza is densely populated. Half its population is under 18. So the Israelis are hitting fewer children than if they were shooting randomly, but not by all that much.

The number of Hamas fighters killed in Gaza is not known. It is likely not much more than the 1500 killed inside Israel during the counterattack October 7 and thereafter. The question is whether killing 10 or even 5 civilians for each Hamas fighter is reasonable. Proportionality between military action and result is an important criterion in the laws of war. So too is necessity. Is there no way other than what the Israelis are doing to destroy Hamas? I’ve addressed that question previously.

Next could be worse

If the fighting restarts after the current pause, we can expect worse. Much of Gaza’s civilian population has sought refuge in the south, as Israel advised. Those displaced will already be short of resources. The civilian population will be more concentrated and exposed, many living in the open rather than in buildings. Intensified bombing in the south will quickly kill more. It will also destroy much of the remaining civilian infrastructure.

Hamas will have taken refuge in its tunnels. Hitting them in the north is one of the reasons for the devastating destruction there, with perhaps half the buildings destroyed. Repeating that destruction in the south will be catastrophic.

Some Israelis hope the Gazans will flee to Egypt, which is resisting their entry. Egypt already hosts an extraordinary number of refugees. But even if Cairo opens the door, the result will be an influx into northern Sinai, which borders Israel. Extremists there are already rife. Would it really help to increase their recruiting potential and risk an assault in southern Israel?

Still worse after the fighting stops

The impact of war continues after the fighting ends. At some point, the Israelis will decide they have done enough. But that won’t end the effects of what they will have done. Disease, hunger, and radicalization will haunt the end of the Gaza war. All will be worse the longer the fighting lasts.

The international community knows how to deal with disease and hunger. It will flood Gaza with assistance of those sorts once the fighting stops, provided the Israelis permit it.

But we know little about avoiding radicalization, which even Netanyahu has acknowledged is a risk.

What is to be done?

Gaza is not going anywhere. It will remain a threat to Israel. That is a good reason not to completely alienate its population, which wasn’t fond of Hamas before October 7.

While President Biden has been jawboning the Israelis to target better and reduce civilian casualties, his diplomatic approach has not been effective. Some in Congress are suggesting imposing conditions on US aid to Israel. That proposition isn’t going to pass in either the House or the Senate. But the proposal may still boost those in Israel who think Netanyahu has gone too far. Friends don’t let friends commit mass murder.

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