There is still time

Yesterday was a big day for Serbian diplomacy.  President Nikolic spent 40 minutes this morning at the UN denouncing the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).  Former Foreign Minister and now President of the General Assembly Jeremic claimed Serbia is committed to peace based on rule of law while continuing to disagree with the International Court of Justice on whether Kosovo’s declaration of independence breached international law (the result of a question Jeremic himself posed while foreign minister).  The Prime Minister took himself off to Moscow, where Prime Minister Medvedev pledged to back whatever Serbia wants on Kosovo.

This trifecta tells us something about where Serbia is headed:  it intends to maintain its claim to sovereignty over all of Kosovo, backed by Moscow.  It will defy and criticize decisions of international tribunals whenever they do not accord with Belgrade’s own views.  Its interest in EU membership is relative.  It will not compromise even over the northwestern 11% of Kosovo, where fewer than half the Serbs in Kosovo live.

I imagine all of this defiance plays well for the domestic Serbian audience, where Nikolic, Jeremic and Dacic may all be campaigning sooner rather than later.  Deputy Prime Minister Vucic, who increasingly is the real power in Serbia because of the popularity of his (once also Nikolic’s) “Progressive” Party, is widely thought to be contemplating early elections.  Vucic’s anti-corruption campaign has garnered him a lot of support.

There is every reason to believe that nationalists will emerge from new elections even stronger than they are today.  This is a Serbia pointed in the wrong direction:  it is choosing a retrograde and quixotic claim to Kosovo over the EU and continuing to deny its role in the wars of the 1990s, or seeking to balance out that role by reference to the misdeeds of others.  I share Belgrade’s unhappiness that more non-Serbs have not been convicted for crimes against Serbs, but that in no way relieves Serbia of responsibility for acts committed on its behalf.

American and European Union efforts to persuade Serbia to moderate its views on Kosovo have so far failed.  Western policy has essentially been all carrot, no stick.  Washington agreed to disagree on Kosovo while fully supporting Serbia’s efforts to gain access to EU benefits.  The EU, until Angela Merkel’s tough stand against Serbia’s parallel institutions in northern Kosovo, was holding the door wide open to Serbia, hoping that its entry into the accession process would be sufficiently attractive to end its claim to sovereignty over Kosovo, or at least allow it to disband the Serbian institutions in the north.

Serbia prides itself on “non-alignment,” even after the end of the Cold War.  It now risks condemning itself to a future aligned with Putin’s Russia, which has already tied Serbia tight with energy deals of dubious merit.

There is still time to choose the EU–Catherine Ashton won’t submit her report on efforts to normalize relations between Pristina and Belgrade until April 16.  Vucic is burning up the telephone lines. My understanding is that Pristina and Belgrade delegations are expected to reappear in Brussels before then.  Both capitals will be better off if Serbia finds a way to declare victory and reverse its stand on an agreement that will protect most Serbs in Kosovo better than if the negotiations fail.