Don’t believe a word

These are early days in the investigation of the Boston marathon bombings.  Suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev has barely begun to communicate.  Investigators have just begun to look into his older brother’s six-month trip to Russia last year.  They need to question family, friends and associates, both here and abroad.   They also need to study the brothers’ online habits, emails and telephone communications.

So whatever we know today about their motives, there is much more that we don’t know.  Is there an international nexus?  Did they act on their own?  What role did the older brother’s increasing religiosity play?  What role did personal disappointments and disillusionment play?  How did Dzhokhar square his apparent comfort with life in America with random murder?  Where did they get their substantial arsenal?  Who manufactured it?  Did others know about it?  How and why did they pick their target?  What were their post-bombing plans?

I don’t expect definitive answers to these questions from investigation leaks or from the White House spokesman.  Definitive answers will not be available until serious people–more often than not they are journalists–devote months and even years to uncovering the truth.  Court proceedings are rarely sufficient for a full understanding, as they are targeted on conviction.  What you need to convict can be dramatically different from what you need to understand.

So we all need to be patient and skeptical.  It’s tough to accept in this age of instant communications, but the definitive word on the Boston marathon bombings is likely to come in words printed on paper.  Rumor and innuendo will prevail until then.  Don’t believe a word, for now.