The storm passes but clouds remain

Ganimete Asllani-Price, who is doing her doctorate at Queen’s University Belfast, writes: 

On Sunday, Kosovo’s parliament convened to discuss and vote on the initialed agreement reached between Serbia and Kosovo on Friday.  Getting parliament’s backing was hugely important for the government. Out of the 95 members of parliament (MP) who voted (there are 120 in total), 89 backed the agreement. This 74 percent approval gives Prime Minister Thaci a boost.

But the discussion in parliament was more nuanced.  The majority of opinions expressed before the voting had the same message – members accept the agreement in principle, but worry about wording and implementation.  The opposition parties (with one important exception discussed below) agreed on the need to negotiate with Serbia and reach an agreement, but they questioned some of the fifteen points and reserved the right to change their minds  when implementation becomes an issue.  We may well see more criticism during the next electoral campaign.

The Self-Determination Movement (Levizja Vetendosje) is not waiting.  It continued its protest within and outside the parliament building against the negotiation process as a whole and the agreement in particular. They maintain that Thaci is selling Kosovo, that he is not the leader of Kosovo people but a coward and a traitor who serves the European Union and the United States.

For those who follow daily politics in Kosovo, the agreement has become part of the daily political abuse and personal exchanges that has characterized the negotiation process, not only in Kosovo but in Serbia as well.  Thus discussion about next steps has not concentrated on the substance or implementation, but on personalities.

Out of the 5 votes that were cast against the agreement, there is one that Thaci and his government need to worry about. The co-founder of his political party and speaker of parliament, Jakup Krasniqi, voted against.  Thaci and Krasniqi have been at odds for a while.  If Krasniqi breaks with Thaci, it could endanger the majority coalition.  Krasniqi’s main concerns are about possible future compromises that may have to be made in order to honor the current agreement.  This was a carefully worded warning.

The immediate reaction of the Serbs in the north was decidedly negative, as expected.  Serbia, which for the past 14 years has provided a lifeline to them, will have to play a major role in implementation there.  Kosovo can do little in the north, as its unilateral attempt to seize border posts there two years ago demonstrated.

In Pristina, the storm is passing, but clouds remain.  Any political damage will become apparent in the weeks, months, and possibly years to come, since the hardest part will unquestionably be the implementation of the fifteen points.  Self-Determination continues to advocate a referendum on union with Albania, a proposition that Kosovo’s current constitution does not permit.  The majority of Kosovo Albanians do not support it.  But that could change.  The Albanians displaced from northern Kosovo might rise in rebellion as Serbs in the north have.  They are the ones who currently are the biggest losers in Kosovo.  This agreement does not bring them any closer to their homes.