Coupkoo

With the army’s seizure of power today, Egypt has swerved again in a revolutionary trajectory that has already passed through too many phases and directions to recall.  I had imagined that the army, opposition and Muslim Brotherhood might reach a last-minute agreement.  It was not to be.  President Morsi is apparently in military custody.

No matter how distasteful and incompetent the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood, I find it hard to celebrate a military coup, popular though it may be.  The Egyptian army took over when Hosni Mubarak fell in February 2011 and made a hash of governing for the next 16 months, until Morsi was inaugurated a year ago.  He was correct in claiming legitimacy derived from democratic election.  But he lost popular support as security, the economy and social conditions deteriorated.  He also failed to maintain his initial truce with the army, which was reportedly offended in particular by his advocacy of jihad by Egyptians against Syria’s Bashar al Asad.

The army is not going to try to govern this time around.  It has suspended the constitution and named Adly Mansour, the not well known chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court, to exercise presidential powers temporarily, including appointment of a technocratic government to propose constitutional amendments and prepare for parliamentary (and presumably presidential) elections.  He was only recently elevated to chief justice but has been on the court since 1992.  From 1983-90 he was a legal advisor to the Ministry of Trade in Saudi Arabia.

It is smart to delegate governing responsibility.  Soldiers are not well qualified to run countries.  The best they can hope to do is ensure a minimum of public order and security.  It remains to be seen whether they can even do that.  The Muslim Brotherhood had talked violence before the coup but is now claiming to be victim not perpetrator and pledging not to take up arms.  It will be some days before we see clearly whether law and order prevail or the security situation continues to go south.

If things go well, Egypt might remain on course for a new constitution and elections sometime early next year.  That however would be the best of all possible worlds.  Given the history since 2011, it seems much more likely that there will be more sharp changes in direction.  Serious instability cannot be ruled out.

PS:  This video purports to show the arrest of a notably unperturbed Morsy: