Will the hostilities cease?
The only real question about the cessation of hostilities supposedly agreed in Munich last week is when it will collapse. It may never go into effect or it may last a week or two, but it will be surprising if it lasts much longer than that. The Russians have made it clear enough the cessation of hostilities doesn’t apply to its efforts against ISIS, which have never really targeted ISIS but are instead directed mainly against any forces opposing the Assad regime. Assad has likewise indicated that his forces will not cease fighting whoever opposes them.
The US and its Coalition allies, who are focusing for now on ISIS forces in eastern Syria, also intend to continue their air attacks. Turkey is shelling Kurdish and allied Arab forces trying to take control of the relatively small part Syria’s northern border that they don’t yet own. Saudi Arabia is talking about deploying ground forces to Syria, but only as part of a US-led Coalition effort that has not real possibility of materializing.
If Damascus allows humanitarian aid convoys into some of the areas it is besieging, that will only be for fear of the consequences if they don’t. If no relief reaches the besieged areas, Secretary of State Kerry will want to make another run at President Obama to urge stronger military action, at the very least provision of antiaircraft weapons to the opposition forces the US has trained. Preventing this eventuality could be a good enough reason for Assad to allow the aid shipments to move forward for a while. Assad’s air force is already decimated, but loss of its remaining helicopters would constrain its ability to terrorize civilian areas with indiscriminate barrel bombs.
President Obama still shows no appetite for getting more deeply involved in Syria. He remains exclusively focused on the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). None of his putative allies in the region share that single mindedness, though the Kurds are making a good show of it. Their real objective is to carve out part of Syria that they can claim to govern, and from which they can support Kurdish insurgents inside Turkey. The Turks are trying to prevent that. The moderate opposition, supported by the Gulf, is targeting Assad. Coalition warfare, which for the US is more the rule than the exception, is always difficult, but this Coalition is proving particularly unruly.
Russian air attacks have already devastated a large part of the area around Aleppo, where several hundred thousand people are at risk of being besieged. Idlib could be next. The costs of future reconstruction in Syria are already astronomical, with no sign of anyone willing or able to pay. The Russians and Iranians haven’t contributed even to the humanitarian relief effort. The Americans and the Gulf won’t be interested in reconstructing anything if Assad remains in power. The Europeans may want to provide some aid, if only to relieve the refugee pressure that is bearing down on them. The Syrian government is broke and will remain so–even if it regains control of its oil fields, they are now depleted and damaged.
So the war will continue sooner or later, despite the human and economic costs. And the post-war period will be no less challenging. Woe to Syria.
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